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topping , the process 2


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#1 dharma

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Posted 19 April 2011 - 07:23 PM

take a look @silver seasonal charts, it tends to top in the april/may time period 04,06,08 were all tops in the silver market will this year conform to this? my plan is to sell some slv to hedge my physical, i do think there will be a large correction like senor i have never seen a parabolic that did not suffer a substantial correction. while i dont think these will be the highs, it never hurts to go to the bank dharma

#2 stubaby

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Posted 19 April 2011 - 11:21 PM

dharma: Remember "hot potato"? Could get interesting soon! Breakouts - XG, GQMNF, OKOFF. Adding AEM at the open. stubaby
GOOD LUCK - the 'Galloping Gertie' syndrom about to hit the US and World Financial Markets over the next 2 Years - Batton down the hatches! Galloping Gertie - Public StockCharts List

#3 johngeorge

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 06:59 AM

Gold through $1500 and silver through $44 this am with the futures dollar index now through $75 @ $74.57. The dollar has now fallen out of bed and is rolling towards the cliff. The correction in PM stocks would appear to be over. This run in silver is simply breathtaking.............................. :swoon:

From Zero Hedge: Spot Gold Passes $1,500, Silver Approaches $45, As Dollar Plummets

"A series of earnings misses was yawned upon by the market. But a couple of earnings beats and the market goes insane. Or, more specifically, the dollar plummets. While anyone can plug whatever narrative they wish to what is happening in the market, here is Reuters' take: "The euro rose to a 15-month high versus the dollar in thin trade on Wednesday, buoyed by an improvement in risk appetite and expectations of further euro zone interest rate increases. A decent response to a Spanish bond auction also helped boost the euro which rose to $1.4548 on EBS, up 1.3 percent on the day and at its highest since January 2010. Traders said stop-losses were triggered through last week's high of $1.4521 and on the break of $1.4530." Whatever it is, the DXY just took out a multiyear low below 74.50 - the lowest since December 2010, the EURUSD is trading above 1.45 and after gold futures touched upon $1,500 yesterday, now it was spot's turn which cut through $1,500 like a hot knife through butter and never looked back. If the DXY drops below 74.25, watch out below (or above if you are gold). Looks like Jim Rogers' "confetti" scenario is playing out: after crossing $44 yesterday, silver is preparing to take out $45."

Edited by johngeorge, 20 April 2011 - 07:08 AM.

Peace
johngeorge

#4 johngeorge

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 07:18 AM

Jim Rogers on chances of $100+ Silver in 2011
Peace
johngeorge

#5 inamosa

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 08:10 AM

We could be in a runaway advance here, as gold and silver don't seem to be having any trouble at key numbers. One shouldn't be worried about the short-term dips but rather the top of this rally...I think we are still at least a few weeks away time wise.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#6 dharma

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 09:26 AM

still in the orb of the band of resistance, above 1513 and we have the breakout. it is coming. looks like the short squeeze in the broads is underway. i expect the same will happen w/the metals. i have acceleration friday/monday. we shall see. the dolar will hit the skids. all of the fiats. all of them, will fail. quantitative easing will run its course and then they will revalue gold, this price appreciation is part of it . its not a new idea. roosevelt laid that one on the public. called in all the gold , then raised the price to 35 an oz from 20. essentially cutting pp in almost 1/2. so sit on the sidelines, and watch as your pp goes down the drain. slicing, dicing, peeling this market will ensure poverty. few here get it. after this inflationary/depression=stagflation, they will tie the currency to something-gold, silver, a basket of commodities - i dont know what. study the markets from the 30s to the late 70s . there was little to no volatility. w/o volatility guys like us cannot make a living @this. actually few very few can. if you are not smacking the leather off the ball in a bull , what chance do you have? anyway. gidyap. i know for the most part i am talking to myself. guys think they get it. dharma

#7 johngeorge

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 10:58 AM

dharma

the dollar will hit the skids. all of the fiats. all of them, will fail.


I believe you are in good company! :)


Eric Sprott: "Expect The Gold To Silver Ratio To Hit Single Digits"

<<snip>>

"What the so-called silver ‘experts’ neglect to account for in their models and projections is that the fiat money experiment has failed. And in this context, we believe the Market has assigned world reserve currency status to gold - not USD, not EUR, and not JPY. In our opinion, gold’s continued appreciation vis-à-vis every currency is assured because the great flight from fiat has only just begun. Like gold, silver also has a long monetary history, and as such, investors are now also buying silver as protection from the ravages of fiat currency debasement."

<<snip>>
Peace
johngeorge

#8 dharma

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 11:12 AM

dharma

the dollar will hit the skids. all of the fiats. all of them, will fail.


I believe you are in good company! :)


Eric Sprott: "Expect The Gold To Silver Ratio To Hit Single Digits"

<<snip>>

"What the so-called silver ‘experts’ neglect to account for in their models and projections is that the fiat money experiment has failed. And in this context, we believe the Market has assigned world reserve currency status to gold - not USD, not EUR, and not JPY. In our opinion, gold’s continued appreciation vis-à-vis every currency is assured because the great flight from fiat has only just begun. Like gold, silver also has a long monetary history, and as such, investors are now also buying silver as protection from the ravages of fiat currency debasement."

<<snip>>

because governments can, they will continue to debase. historically , sovereigns never pay off their debt. to use gold as a viable mechanism to back currencies its price has to be higher. alot higher.
dharma

#9 senorBS

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 11:13 AM

gold stocks are up but starting to fall again, Senor ponders whether the the "crude factor" of increasing mining costs are canceling out the gold and silver price rises we have seen so far? If this rally fails then it again looks malo. Senor

#10 dougie

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Posted 20 April 2011 - 11:37 AM

Why Gold Stocks are Struggling Despite Record Price

http://www.kitco.com.../apr182011.html

Gold (NYSE:GLD) looks fantastic. It is breaking away from a consolidation which could be called a running correction. Two weeks ago Gold broke to a new high. Last week Gold retested the breakout and then advanced to another new high at the end of the week. Its textbook bullish action. Yet the gold shares have really struggled.

Last week the shares failed to make a new high and underperformed badly. GDX (NYSE:GDX) never broke to a new high and is below its December high. GDXJ (NYSE:GDXJ) did break to a new high but is now at its December high. Gold is nearing $1500. Its December high was $1425.

There are real reasons for these divergences. Some peers think its the hedge funds shorting the shares or manipulating the market either intentionally or unintentionally. Some think its manipulation by the powers that be. The fact is, these assertions have not been proven and there are some fundamental reasons for the divergence.

The price of Oil (NYSE:USO) comprises about one quarter of the cost of mining. Remember 2007-2008 when the gold stocks badly underperformed? Part of that was because Oil went from $60 to $150. Sure the Gold/Oil ratio is now well above its highs from 2000-2008, but since the summer of 2010 its decreased from 17 to 13. That will cut into margins this year.

Secondly (and we’ve written about this before), the Canadian gold price is up only 13% since its peak in February 2009 and up only 7% since last June. Most gold companies are Canadian companies. Its the Canadian price that is more important to them. Thus, a weak US dollar eventually negatively impacts gold producers.

The gold shares have underperformed a rising price of Gold in the past. We saw it in 2004 and also in 2007-2008. It generally precedes corrections and that is a reason to be cautious beyond the short-term, which looks positive. It is not manipulation or intervention. The proof this time is that all gold shares (seniors, mid-tiers and juniors) are now under-performing.

We’ve noted the fundamental considerations but maybe the market knows something else we don’t. Perhaps the market senses a top in equities? Perhaps the market sees an intermediate term top ahead for Gold and Silver (NYSE:SLV)? Perhaps the market thinks the shares will struggle in the seasonally weakest period of the year?

We are short-term bulls but cannot be too bullish with the broad divergence between the shares and the metal. In this bull market, this divergence has always resolved itself with a correction in the sector. Sure it could be different this time but we think not. For more analysis like this and professional guidance, consider a free 14-day trial to our service.

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
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