27 replies to this topic

[IndexTrader]

rhetorically..would you like me to do a follow up to my last post which was on April 19th...

Here, you could follow up this one, where you evidently shorted the RUT on the way up:

http://www.traders-t...?...=129370&hl=

Or maybe this one where you were short at the low:

http://www.traders-t...?...=128979&hl=

You're here to take a bow when you're right, you disappear when you're wrong. You been doing it for as long as I can remember. But good luck with the trade, whatever it is.

IT

[Rogerdodger]

Laundry and Parker are working together and now will produce the update on each Monday as I understand it at http://ttheory.typepad.com/
Laundry thinks next Monday's update will be near a low although some cycle guys are calling for a high then.
He thinks the cycles will be inverted next Monday.

i just listened to the audio .. ...wow ..what a coincidence ... this came out today ? when do these normally come out ?

this would certainly support again a bit of what im seeing .. or what more than a few of us here are seeing . yes ?

Laundry mentions McClellan's post about the fading of copper pointing to trouble, and not just a 4 day decline.

5 Charts: http://ttheory.typep...rts20110509.pdf
Audio explanation:

http://www.mcoscilla...traders_report/

Edited by Rogerdodger, 09 May 2011 - 11:12 PM.

[Mr Dev]

interesting ..

thanks for the Update .

Laundry and Parker are working together and now will produce the update on each Monday as I understand it at http://ttheory.typepad.com/
Laundry thinks next Monday's update will be near a low although some cycle guys are calling for a high then.
He thinks the cycles will be inverted next Monday.

i just listened to the audio .. ...wow ..what a coincidence ... this came out today ? when do these normally come out ?

this would certainly support again a bit of what im seeing .. or what more than a few of us here are seeing . yes ?

Laundry mentions McClellan's post about the fading of copper pointing to trouble, and not just a 4 day decline.

5 Charts: http://ttheory.typep...rts20110509.pdf
Audio explanation:

http://www.mcoscilla...traders_report/

[dasein]

those thinking about not paying - should be warned: citi in indonesia investigated for death of creditor-
http://www.banktech....id=nl_bnk_daily

[slupert]

but my chart work and track record over the years has been pretty amazing calling 1000 point drops in the DOW within weeks.

Wow Dev. Are you saying the ST Long/Buy would possibly led to a crash of 1000 points in Dow?

All ears to your coming signals.

reading between the lines you could say that .. but i wasn't trying to be that specific.
however, even if we see a few days of gains there is more negative starting Thursday and it should start to flow into next week.
again i haven't looked at a calendar so i don't know what, why, or specifically when .. this is just an early .. warning.. in my work with
something that doesn't come along everyday.
this is something that may not show on your average radar screen .. so i thought id let my friends in on it.
***********

anytime qdd

i was thinking we would see a pullback before the next fed meeting, but maybe you are right, the "Fed model" says interest rates should be about 6.5%, a far cry from the current 10 year at 3.15%, combine this with,the end of QE2, flip flopping economic data, unstable commodities prices and EU banking and the natives could start to become a little restless.

[Geomean]

Maybe we're not thinking big enough.

What would bring this about ; make it more than acceptable to the masses -

Policymakers learn a new and alarming catchphrase
by Gillian Tett, FT.com

...A few weeks ago, Carmen Reinhart ... produced a joint paper for the International Monetary Fund on the topic of "financial repression" in the West. And while this phrase is not yet mainstream news, it is starting to generate a buzz among the policy elite...

The issue ... revolves around the question of where investors "choose" to put their money. During the past three decades, western savers have generally assumed they could put their money wherever they wanted, since financial markets were organized according to the mantra of globalization and free market capitalism... But as Ms Reinhart and Belen Sbrancia, her colleague, point out, this freedom was unusual..., from the 1940s to the 1980s, western governments operated capital controls and interest rate caps that restricted financial flows, limiting investor choice. ...

Ms Reinhart and Ms Sbrancia argue that these controls also had a crucial fiscal impact. After the second world war, the debt of the advanced economies spiraled to about 90 per cent of gross domestic product ... which meant western governments desperately needed to find investors to buy the bonds.

One consequence of the controls was they created a captive domestic audience for those bonds. Better still, because these bonds paid a yield lower than inflation, ... they effectively paid a hidden subsidy to the government, enabling them to reduce the debt.

Ms Reinhart and Ms Sbrancia argue the world has forgotten that the widespread system of financial repression "played an instrumental role in reducing or 'liquidating' the massive stocks of debt accumulated during World War II". ...

[S]ome free-market economists ... argue "repression" crimps private sector investments, thus undermining growth. But postwar politicians clearly decided this was a price worth paying to cut debt and avoid outright default or draconian spending cuts. And the longer the gridlock over fiscal reform rumbles on, the greater the chance that "repression" comes to be seen as the least of all evils...

http://investor.news...d?GUID=18404380

The book "Macrowikinomics" is an interesting read along these lines.

If the Arab Spring is real, and illustrates the strength of self-organizing -- more democratic wiki/social network type systems --then a key big picture impact from the internet revolution is obvious.

According to logic outlined by Macrowikinomics, using the power of social networks, the masses could somehow learn how to exert more control over the greed and rapaciousness of Wall Street, the complicity of government leaders, and the flecklessness/self centeredness of obscure actors in important command and control points and structures of society, and the ability of a small group of actors to capture almost all of the wealth created by the vast network impacts of new technologies.

One the other hand, Geithner just exempted huge parts of the swap and forward markets from transparency, at the behest of Wall Street.

If the economy turns down and we have hard times, expect the masses to try to figure out how things got so screwed up and try to figure out how to better control these kinds of abuses in the future.

Carmen Reinhart, et al are doing everyone a great service with their work and insights. The term "financial repression' is apt. Just tell the millions of savers in this country who have sufferred under the Bernanke QE.

[dasein]

good conversation on this thread - but i want to ask again why Ubu said the Madrid fault is acting up - I have seen nothing from the USGS on this and he said take a look, I did, what I saw was nothing unusual - so, please help me see what you are seeing ubu -

http://folkworm.ceri...atch/cat_s_2021

[uburack]

good conversation on this thread - but i want to ask again why Ubu said the Madrid fault is acting up - I have seen nothing from the USGS on this and he said take a look, I did, what I saw was nothing unusual - so, please help me see what you are seeing ubu -

http://folkworm.ceri...atch/cat_s_2021

Didn't mean to hijack a good thread. I'm not going to make the strongest case for it but here is what I've been watching.
http://earthquake.us...es/recenteqsus/

Problem with this map is they don't retain/display smaller quakes for more than a couple of days. You can see a line of quakes from Chihuahua Mex through the New Madrid zone, extending into Nova Scotia. This line has recently had numerous small quakes on it and if the map would accumulate them you might be amazed. Recently had larger quakes on Baja, directly in line with the others too. Given the geographic nature of the area extending into the great lakes (It was above sea level durng the ice age because of the weight) It is entirely feasible the weight of the overflowing river valley could exacerbate the situation.

From what I hear, FEMA and the National Guard are doing disaster prep in this very area during May. A very large operation that has raised suspicions. Take it for what it's worth. I found it curious that Dev would mention this zone in his post but he never explained why.

edit to add that Yellowstone as also been increasingly active the last year or so.
ubu

Edited by uburack, 10 May 2011 - 01:43 PM.