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Plain Vanilla IT Downtrend


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#11 big nick

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Posted 24 May 2011 - 12:38 PM

Thank you Don, great call, I saw your original post, Thanks for sharing,...Nick :rolleyes:

Because I truly believe that Friday's signal will likely prove to be our most important signal of this entire year and because the implications of this signal for many traders could be extremely important, I've decided to make available here at Fearless Forecasters Thursday night's article from SevenSentinels.com about the developing set up for an imminent sell signal - the awaited signal which in fact subsequently materialized on Friday. If you want to read the full article, I've opened it and made it available here. For any who want to see Friday's signal or our weekend comments, there is a free trial link at bottom of page.

The full article can be read here. In celebration of our one year anniversary we are offering, on a once only basis, a two-week free trial AND 90-day discounted intro as indicated at bottom of this page. Very best of trading to all! Don

I'm gonna say it one more time, then I'll leave y'all alone. ;) On Friday May 13, 2011 we had what I consider to be one of the most important Seven Sentinels Sell Signals of the last couple of years. To me, trading is all about TREND, i.e. CONTEXT, and that becomes the overriding operative ingredient for EVERY trading decision.

Yesterday we had a TRIN close of 2.24, and those kinds of closing readings generally lead to some rebound. In an IT uptrend, that kind of reading would provide a great entry for longs. But in an IT downtrend, as I read this, all it does is give us some fuel to try to rebound, while the market works off the very short term oversold. And that's how I see today - a relief rally in a downtrend.

I strongly suspect that after the relief rally runs it's course over coming hours that there could very well be "hell to pay" - and that the rest of the week "could" get bloody. We'll see. Just my trading thoughts here, fwiw.

Best of trades, all, D



#12 inamosa

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Posted 24 May 2011 - 12:41 PM

Thank you for your comments, Don. I personally believe that we are very near a multi-week low (I expect price to not accept below ES 1300) here (a 10-wk. Hurst low), and that there is one more leg up to a new 52-week high coming later this month or in June before a larger correction in US stocks can begin. But, I always appreciate hearing your take on things. Let me add that every cyclical bull has its corrections, and they can occasionally get as large as 15-20% (rarely more than that). The breadth thrusts that have occurred in recent months (Sept., Dec., Mar.) somewhat strongly suggest this cyclical bull market will continue at least into sometime next year, and I'm inclined to agree with that for now.

Edited by alysomji, 24 May 2011 - 12:46 PM.

"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#13 IYB

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Posted 05 June 2011 - 10:38 AM

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&st=2010-12-01&en=(today)&i=p16600679156&a=225433286&r=747.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=12&i=p22117906639&a=225433288&r=53.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=15&i=p21774170959&a=225433287&r=285.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&st=2010-12-01&en=(today)&i=p62243679025&a=225433289&r=168.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRINQ&p=D&st=2010-12-01&en=(today)&i=p63574275379&a=225433290&r=571.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p98165593474&a=225433292&r=907.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NASI&p=D&st=2010-12-01&en=(today)&i=p32507025490&a=225433291&r=428.png
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds