It was wrong in 1998. Have you back tested it with 100 years of SPX data? what is the win/loss percentage of the signals.
bln,
Yes of course it can be wrong. Nothing is infallible in this business. The key is recognizing when you are wrong and switch your bias when the turn happens. Nothing has changed in the markets and the price behavior and human psychology has remained the same. For indicator and quant based systems backtesting is useful. For pure price following, backtesting has limited use.
1234 should get retested today again before any trend turn happens on the hourly.
And we got it tested today.
Edited by NAV, 04 August 2011 - 09:29 AM.