Jump to content



Photo

the run


  • Please log in to reply
222 replies to this topic

#11 stubaby

stubaby

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,658 posts

Posted 04 September 2011 - 07:50 PM

And the "cracks" begin to open-----

Standard Bank Group, Africa's largest bank by assets Offers Yuan Settlement Option

stubaby :lol:

#12 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 05 September 2011 - 10:24 AM

after months of consolidation , the miners are ready to break out. just when folks looked @the miners and thought they mined swiss cheese. the mining biz is a tough biz for investors . its difficult to discern which juniors really have gold and which are trying to develop their assets . there are companies like sa which are in the middle of a gold producing area, but have no interest in developing these assets, but would rather have a major buy them out. there are others where the management doesnt have experience so money is wasted. its not easy to separate the wheat from the chaff. be that as it may the undervalued sector is about to wake up to a woody. this mini parabolic phase will be very instructive. when it is done , many will call the end of the pm bull market. the chorus will get loud. and they will appear to be correct for a period of time. but, it will not be the end , it will only be the pause that refreshes for the final run. make no mistake about it. this ends w/the destruction of fiat. the crises here and now is just being recognized. the destruction is not here and now, recognition of the crises is here and now. then in elliott terms wave 4. which will be a good opportunity to review one's mistakes so they dont occur in wave 5, which will be the big move. greed and fear control markets. and traders. 2008 deflation was loud and clear. how wave 4 express' itself remains to be seen , but it wont be pretty for the bulls. remember in 75 gold went from 204 to 102 , a 50% haircut. it can happen again. miners even lost more. it will be an opportunity, but only if the same mistakes, the temptation to trade does not happen. otherwise the train will leave the station waiting for that lower buy. wave 5 will be shorter in duration , but longer in price appreciation. waiting for the chorus of experts that proclaim the bull dead, over, kaput for wave 4. its when i switch to my buy hat. for now enjoy the run. its a thing of beauty. recognition. houston we have a problem! dharma

#13 stubaby

stubaby

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,658 posts

Posted 05 September 2011 - 04:56 PM

after months of consolidation , the miners are ready to break out. just when folks looked @the miners and thought they mined swiss cheese. the mining biz is a tough biz for investors . its difficult to discern which juniors really have gold and which are trying to develop their assets . there are companies like sa which are in the middle of a gold producing area, but have no interest in developing these assets, but would rather have a major buy them out. there are others where the management doesnt have experience so money is wasted. its not easy to separate the wheat from the chaff. be that as it may the undervalued sector is about to wake up to a woody.
this mini parabolic phase will be very instructive. when it is done , many will call the end of the pm bull market. the chorus will get loud. and they will appear to be correct for a period of time. but, it will not be the end , it will only be the pause that refreshes for the final run. make no mistake about it. this ends w/the destruction of fiat. the crises here and now is just being recognized. the destruction is not here and now, recognition of the crises is here and now. then in elliott terms wave 4. which will be a good opportunity to review one's mistakes so they dont occur in wave 5, which will be the big move.
greed and fear control markets. and traders. 2008 deflation was loud and clear. how wave 4 express' itself remains to be seen , but it wont be pretty for the bulls. remember in 75 gold went from 204 to 102 , a 50% haircut. it can happen again. miners even lost more. it will be an opportunity, but only if the same mistakes, the temptation to trade does not happen. otherwise the train will leave the station waiting for that lower buy. wave 5 will be shorter in duration , but longer in price appreciation.
waiting for the chorus of experts that proclaim the bull dead, over, kaput for wave 4. its when i switch to my buy hat.
for now enjoy the run. its a thing of beauty. recognition. houston we have a problem!
dharma



dharma:

I'm spending the day:

Doing some "honey do" projects around 'la hacienda' & trying to 'play' with the EW count for the miners (using HUI). Seems like a great combination of frustrating projects for a "day off"!

Best I can see from what we know:

Wave 1 from Bull Market kickoff in 2001 at 35.31 ended in March 2008 at 519.69 (484.37 pts)
Wave 2 ended in October 2008 at 150.27 at the 76.26% FIB level (deeper because of financial meltdown)
Wave 3 (in progress):
Targets
Wave 3 = Wave 1 = 634.64
Wave 3 = 1.618 X Wave 1 = 933.98
Wave 3 = 2.618 X Wave 1 = 1,488.35

Let's look at Wave 3 (Wave 3 is very difficult to count here):
Wave 1 ran from October 2008 low at 150.27 to November 2009 at 516.16 (365.89 pts)
Wave 2 ended in January 2010 at 363.23 just below the 38.2% FIB level
Wave 3 (in progress)
Targets
Wave 3 = Wave 1 = 729.14
Wave 3 = 1.618 X Wave 1 = 955.26
Wave 3 = 2.618 X Wave 1 = 1,321.15

Let's look at Wave 3:
Wave 1 ran from January 2010 at 363.23 to April 2011 at 609.22 (245.97 pts)
Wave 2 ended in June 2011 at 487.96 at the 50.0% FIB level
Wave 3 (in progress)
Targets
Wave 3 = Wave 1 = 733.93
Wave 3 = 1.618 X Wave 1 = 885.93
Wave 3 = 2.618 X Wave 1 = 1,131.90

The Tables below and the Chart attempt to capture the potential series of Wave 3's as they unwind towards Primary Wave 3 Highs:

Posted Image

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&i=p99421128427&a=204648868&r=6160.png


stubaby :sweatingbullets: :swoon: :cry:

#14 johngeorge

johngeorge

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 4,616 posts

Posted 06 September 2011 - 08:06 AM

stubaby Most appreciative of your hard work. Thanks for sharing. :) Best to you.
Peace
johngeorge

#15 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 06 September 2011 - 09:36 AM

last night was a wild affair. gold got as high as 1920 and as low as 1840. 1913 is the # in this cycle where resistance is strongest. get above 1954 and it opens up a whole new price range. tomorrow the germans meet and decide the fate of the piigs. we are warming up here, the financial world is crumbling. betting on the dollar or euro or any fiat for that matter is not a great idea. they each have their own pitfalls. gold will perform well if the dollar rises as the euro falls. america has not been through a currency crises , to my knowledge since the continental. gold as an investment is still foreign. europe this is not the case. in parabolics you pick your spots based on being able to sleep @night and you lighten up to the sleeping level. volatility is going to continue to be the order of the day stubaby.- i too believe we are in wave 3 for gold and the miners. wave 5 is the big one. dharma

#16 tradesurfer

tradesurfer

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,944 posts

Posted 06 September 2011 - 10:06 AM

dharma, at this time I am very concerned about a huge 3 to 4 month US dollar rally. I don't know if gold and silver can survive such a rally... my monthly charts of US dollar are saying we are on the cusp caution advised... opinions welcome

#17 dougie

dougie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,999 posts

Posted 06 September 2011 - 11:24 AM

well as a USD bagholder i can say that this is a gift or i think it is, but may be a trojan horsey

#18 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 06 September 2011 - 11:28 AM

dharma, at this time I am very concerned about a huge 3 to 4 month US dollar rally.

I don't know if gold and silver can survive such a rally...

my monthly charts of US dollar are saying we are on the cusp

caution advised...

opinions welcome

ok i will give mine
dollar is in a bear market.
can it rally? you bet
how will that affect the price of gold?
it remains to be seen.
september is a bullish month for gold. 10 out of 10 since the bull market started
positions should always be @a sleeping level. there are lots of possibilities out there.
lots to worry about.


i will tell you the outcome
the dollar is toast, they will depreciate the currency in an effort to inflate the debt away. renege is not an option for the reserve currency. greece, portugal, italy, ireland etc do not have this option. eventually they will renege. gold will go alot higher in the long term. remember i am not a trader w/the bulk of my position. i am not that smart. and i know there is a major correction around the corner. but after that once unthinkable #s will be a reality. much like jimmys 1650 was in 2001 , when he mentioned it. right here right now, this is a sampling of what is in store.
look @oil here the chart looks similar to the broads. it is trapped in a supply/demand situation for now. gold =money fiat=debt. so do i sell my gold @this point for fiat? what do i do w/my money? you choose?(not speaking to anyone specifically)
yes , gold market it will go up and it will go down. longer term in a bull market the answer is easy. higher highs
i saw last time as a novice the biggest names in the biz got out in the low 400s . too high too fast. needs a rest . a pull back. well the market did not listen to them. it kept going. it was frightening. but, beginners luck i held on.
pick your poison. i know this when we are well into wave 5 this volatility will be quite tame. no one said this will be easy
dharma

#19 dougie

dougie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,999 posts

Posted 06 September 2011 - 12:09 PM

i see 5 waves down on GDX 10 minute chart also, TLT is acting up miners will not be spared if we tank hard imo

#20 stubaby

stubaby

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,658 posts

Posted 06 September 2011 - 04:41 PM

Gold trapped between trendlines - gathering it's breath (for the moment):

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=8&dy=0&i=p37095527329&a=205151058&r=116.png

stubaby