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so many bears here, even recent bulls givin up


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#31 skott

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Posted 17 September 2011 - 03:50 AM

ahhh, I don't feel comfortable teaching you soo much but look at the grande performance of the retail index July to Sept 2008. Look the importante moving averages and look to the right of the chart and you will see the Retail index lost 40% before December arrived. Sorry, I omitted the rest of the lesson and the reason why this has occurred.

Edited by skott, 17 September 2011 - 03:51 AM.


#32 IYB

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Posted 17 September 2011 - 11:14 AM

If the chart above goes sideways for 2 more months, all of the indicators depicted will penetrate into the bear territory per your definitions.....

On my way the door here so I'll get back to you and this string Arb. But all I'm saying really is that UNLESS OR UNTIL the above happens, or some other pattern takes us to primary bear market mode, bull market RULES rule my trading... :) Thanks for some excellent discussion....very best, D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#33 IYB

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Posted 17 September 2011 - 10:28 PM

If the chart above goes sideways for 2 more months, all of the indicators depicted will penetrate into the bear territory per your definitions.....

On my way the door here so I'll get back to you and this string Arb. But all I'm saying really is that UNLESS OR UNTIL the above happens, or some other pattern takes us to primary bear market mode, bull market RULES rule my trading... :) Thanks for some excellent discussion....very best, D

Arb- I have more time now so let me try to clarify. First, I certainly didn't mean to suggest that you make your trading decisions arbitrarily or based on opinion or assumption. I have a great deal of respect for your work and your trading has been awesome. I was speaking ONLY to the very narrow point, which to many wouldn't even matter, but to me is at the center of everything I do - and that is the primary cycle context of the market. You've called this a bear market several times recently and seemed to be thinking in terms of bear market rules for projecting future market action. I had asked you "How or why do you arrive at that label/classification?" Your answer was that that you do not expect new highs in the next 12 months....and this makes it a bear market. So on that very narrow point, you seemed to be calling this a bear market based on what you expect rather than on any purely objective measures that fit the objective definition of a bear market. And that's okay. It's just that with this market still within the objective definition of a Primary Bull Market, my antennae always go up here when I read statements calling this a bear market.

Again, to most it wouldn't even matter. I'm just a stickler for context. For me, once we DO cross into primary bear, the rules change very dramatically. And we ain't there yet, at least using what I've used for decades for that purpose. Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and slow dancing. :lol: But that's just me.... ;) Again, keep up the great work. Very best my friend, Don

Edited by IYB, 17 September 2011 - 10:30 PM.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#34 MikeyG

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Posted 17 September 2011 - 10:49 PM

I have an indicator suggesting the market can either go sideways or down on a long term (weeks/months) timeframe...

It is impossible to go up on a long term timeframe, short term is a different story (hence I have been long for a week or so)...

But this rally is destined to fail unless my indicator switiches back into "bull" mode...

Weather we call it a bull or bear doesn't much matter to me as long as my indicator suggests either down or sideways action is all I need to know in order to properly trade this market...

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#35 IYB

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Posted 17 September 2011 - 11:15 PM

Only you can understand the system you follow.... Please tell me what has changed since August 6th.

Hi again DrSP. Thanks again for your patience.

Actually the "system" is far simpler than it may look from the outside. For the Intermediate Term Trend - what I like to call "the line of least resistance", all I care about is the direction of the market as defined {or led} by the market internals. I designed 7 "sentinels" to tell me the direction of these internals, and when all Seven go to "buy mode" this tells me we are in an IT uptrend and we will stay in that uptrend until all seven go to "sell mode". Period. It's that simple.

When we are in IT uptrend mode by this definition, internals are running out ahead of the market, leading it higher. When we are in IT downtrend mode by this definition, internals are running out ahead of the market in the downward direction, pulling it lower. Internals lead. Price follows. Period. Right now internals are leading higher.

Why does that matter? Because once we know the IT "context", this sets the background for interpreting daily price behavior- the up days and down days that always occur. An example: Overbought in an IT downtrend is the "perfect" place to short. But overbought in an IT uptrend very often is the perfect time to BUY. Different context-different result. Why? Because in an uptrend, overbought occurs when we get a powerful upward thrust in the direction of the IT trend, and is usually just the start of a BIG move, whereas overbought in aq downtrend comes at the end of a move. The opposite is true of oversold: in an uptrend it's time to BUY, while in a downtrend it may be the perfect time to SELL (short). Bear trend rules versus bull trend rules. Extremely different. Context is everything.

But to sum up and answer your question directly "Please tell me what has changed since August 6th." the answer is just this:

BPCOMPQ crossed above it own 3 day ema
NYMO 8 day ema crossed ABOVE the 34 day ema
NAMO 8 day ema crossed ABOVE the 34 day ema
TRIN 8 day ema crossed BELOW the 34 day ema
TRINQ 8 day ema crossed BELOW the 34 day ema
NYSI crossed above it own 2 day ema
NASI crossed above it own 2 day ema

And each of those say that internals are leading the market higher. Collectively they are saying that the IT Trend is up.

Very Best, Don

Edited by IYB, 17 September 2011 - 11:25 PM.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#36 DrSP

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Posted 18 September 2011 - 01:21 PM

Don, Thanks for your explanation on the 7 sentinels. I missed that June 5th post and didn't read it. It seems the SS have bottomed IT on ~ August 22nd, especially the BPCOMPQ shows a good positive divergence. So, I suppose the assumption that PBlM ended and PBrM started is just an assumption at this point.
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#37 IYB

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Posted 18 September 2011 - 04:20 PM

Don, Thanks for your explanation on the 7 sentinels. I missed that June 5th post and didn't read it. It seems the SS have bottomed IT on ~ August 22nd, especially the BPCOMPQ shows a good positive divergence. So, I suppose the assumption that PBlM ended and PBrM started is just an assumption at this point.

yes- switching timeframes as you suggest to the Primary Trend, we have come very close to confirming a primary bear market, but have never quite gotten there.....so for me that means Primary Bull Market rules are in play still... best regards, D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#38 arbman

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Posted 18 September 2011 - 04:25 PM

Don, I don't see the same degree of trend change (up) in the weekly and monthly charts, but a new swing high up to 1250 gap is definitely a possibility next week. The leadership and breadth will be important right from here. RUT was lagging. OTOH, if this attempt was just another squeeze that went a bit higher while the commodities retreated, it should also quickly reverse from these o/b levels. One thing is true, Fed will print until the commodity and energy issues lead, so more upside is still likely from any pull back, bears need to be patient...