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Gold at another "Critical Juncture"


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#1 stubaby

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Posted 18 November 2011 - 10:23 PM

From October 23rd:

Gold could bottom early this week with one more move down (maybe just below 1,600 intraday) to finish it's a-b-c unless Wave 5 extends lower (whether it's a complete a-b-c for Wave 2 or just Wave A - doesn't matter here - it's up we go for Wave B or Wave 1 of 3)


We went UP taking out Wave a low at 1,705.40 to "lock-in" the a-b-c pattern.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p42619314311&a=242428569&r=894.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p90894153505&a=232993438&r=6719.png


Also from October 23rd:

This Trendline Chart has four(4) touches - 2 from below and 2 from above and rests now at just above 1,500 - a drop here into the pink range could satisfy the 23.6% FIB and reinforce the importance of this trendline.


We went UP leaving this area untouched.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p48587234920&a=246270726&r=100.png

We are now at an important juncture, IMHO. We have Waves 1-2-3 UP off of the Wave C low at 1,535 and could potentially be in Wave 4 here with Wave 5 up to complete Wave 1 of 3 OR if early next week Wave 1 high at 1,696.80 is breached (which seems likely given the position of STO and MACD above) we will again "lock-in" another a-b-c and we will have completed Wave A (a-b-c) and Wave B (a-b-c) putting us into Wave C, which would imply lower targets near 1,500+- the BEST CASE (Also the 65-Week MA level here). Wave C=Wave A target near 1,431. (Also near the 38.2% FIB from the 2008 low)

Any early weakness next week (below 1,696.80) and it looks like 1,425 to 1,510 is the target range to the downside. I'm NOT trying to predict here only attempting to quantify some of the price levels and parameters I am watching. (and I am by NO means an EW expert)

Comments welcome!


stubaby
GOOD LUCK - the 'Galloping Gertie' syndrom about to hit the US and World Financial Markets over the next 2 Years - Batton down the hatches! Galloping Gertie - Public StockCharts List

#2 dougie

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Posted 19 November 2011 - 12:31 PM

beautiful elliot work stu! I favor the really bullish scenario of a vicious decline to sometime in early 2012, but will be seeing how we handle these levels

#3 tria

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Posted 19 November 2011 - 07:17 PM

Prefer your third chart stubaby, it just looks better to me greek eyes. As for the counting, I'll leave that to yours and to senor'sBS eyes. His very seldom comments to the Gold Board we all mish, I believe. Although I was once a faithful student of the E-theory, too many alternate counts, made me unfaithful. Even the "expert" Bob Pr...... proclaims "THE TOP" at every Gold's all-times highs. Tks for the charts.

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#4 tria

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Posted 19 November 2011 - 08:08 PM

Prefer your third chart stubaby, it just looks better to me greek eyes.
As for the counting, I'll leave that to yours and to senor'sBS eyes. His very seldom comments to the Gold Board we all mish, I believe.
Although I was once a faithful student of the E-theory, too many alternate counts, made me unfaithful. Even the "expert" Bob Pr...... proclaims "THE TOP" at every Gold's all-times highs.
Tks for the charts.


After all "beauty is in the eye of the beholder"

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#5 tria

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Posted 19 November 2011 - 08:09 PM

Prefer your third chart stubaby, it just looks better to me greek eyes.
As for the counting, I'll leave that to yours and to senor'sBS eyes. His very seldom comments to the Gold Board we all mish, I believe.
Although I was once a faithful student of the E-theory, too many alternate counts, made me unfaithful. Even the "expert" Bob Pr...... proclaims "THE TOP" at every Gold's all-times highs.
Tks for the charts.


After all "beauty is in the eye of the beholder"

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#6 CHAx

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Posted 20 November 2011 - 07:31 PM

Nice analysis. As bullish as I am long term, I was favoring a lower low as well for gold.

#7 dougie

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Posted 21 November 2011 - 11:29 AM

there goes your 1696...you heging?

#8 tria

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Posted 21 November 2011 - 11:34 AM

there goes your 1696...you heging?


In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#9 tria

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Posted 21 November 2011 - 11:43 AM

there goes your 1696...you heging?


Just waiting to reload my trading position from an expected low/lows from this Friday till mid December. Price wise do not know yet.

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#10 stubaby

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Posted 21 November 2011 - 12:12 PM

there goes your 1696...you heging?



dougie:

This "downswing is ending" here IMHO - now that we have "locked-in" the Wave B (a-b-c) UP we are in Wave a of C. I am nimbling here for Wave b of C - will hedge after that Wave completes only, possibly 1,750-1,775 range - will only know probable targets after Wave a of C completes.


stubaby
GOOD LUCK - the 'Galloping Gertie' syndrom about to hit the US and World Financial Markets over the next 2 Years - Batton down the hatches! Galloping Gertie - Public StockCharts List