72 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

Dharma,
FWIW, Funny how Merriman has said to buy around the 9th of Dec for the low in silver..not sure if that is a low for gold but could be..he said back at Nov's 8th letter that look for a low in gold in November before Dec 2nd. He called for a 110-220 pt decline from our top and so far that has been met too. But he will be more bullish on gold once silver passes over 35.70..then we're off to the races I guess.
TM

Wonder what Merriman is looking at with 12/9???
All I can see is Uranus ending its retro period.

gis

I believe it has to do with cycles..He's looking for a 7-11 week half primary cycle low from Nov 14-Dec 16 but his bias is around the 9th...
TM

[stubaby]

dharma:

Thanks - 1,736.60 will be "the tell" here on these counts - a move above before the Wave 5 of 3 of 5 / Wave 4 of 5 / and finally Wave 5 of 5 - will again "lock-in" an a-b-c for Wave a off of the Wave B highs.

For me EW is about eliminating potential paths - for now BOTH options work and as you say

"of course neither of us know except in retrospect"

cheers,

stubaby

[dharma]

Dharma,
FWIW, Funny how Merriman has said to buy around the 9th of Dec for the low in silver..not sure if that is a low for gold but could be..he said back at Nov's 8th letter that look for a low in gold in November before Dec 2nd. He called for a 110-220 pt decline from our top and so far that has been met too. But he will be more bullish on gold once silver passes over 35.70..then we're off to the races I guess.
TM

Wonder what Merriman is looking at with 12/9???
All I can see is Uranus ending its retro period.

gis

I believe it has to do with cycles..He's looking for a 7-11 week half primary cycle low from Nov 14-Dec 16 but his bias is around the 9th...
TM

obviously i dont know what ray is looking for on the 9th
but i know what i am looking for on the 8th
A=C in time on the 8th
and i have an astro turn on the 8th
december has alot of turns and activity. the imf came out and said this today;
IMF on the tape…

IMF CREATES NEW FLEXIBLE PRECAUTIONARY AND LIQUIDITY LINE TO BREAK 'CHAINS OF CONTAGION', HELP DEAL WITH MARKET STRESS

IMF-NEW LIQUIDITY LINE GIVES COUNTRIES ACCESS TO FINANCING OVER 6 MONTHS FOR SHORT-TERM BALANCE OF PAYMENT NEEDS

IMF SAYS NEW CREDIT LINE CAN ALSO BE USED UNDER 12- TO 24-MONTH ARRANGEMENT, WITH ACCESS UP TO 1,000 PCT OF QUOTA

IMF CREATES NEW RAPID FINANCING INSTRUMENT FOR COUNTRIES WITH URGENT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS NEEDS CAUSED BY 'EXOGENOUS SHOCKS'

IMF'S LAGARDE-NEW FINANCING TOOLS WILL HELP IMF RESPOND MORE RAPIDLY AND EFFECTIVELY TO HELP COUNTRIES COPE WITH CRISES

This will be financed with SDRs that are printed up out of thin air. And as you can see, 1000% of one’s quota ( http://www.imf.org/e...r/members.aspx) is no small amount of money.
welcome to the party, print , print , and more print
dharma

[gismeu]

[/quote] I believe it has to do with cycles..He's looking for a 7-11 week half primary cycle low from Nov 14-Dec 16 but his bias is around the 9th... TM [/quote] Thanks TM

[tria]

there goes your 1696...you heging?

dougie:

This "downswing is ending" here IMHO - now that we have "locked-in" the Wave B (a-b-c) UP we are in Wave a of C. I am nimbling here for Wave b of C - will hedge after that Wave completes only, possibly 1,750-1,775 range - will only know probable targets after Wave a of C completes.


stubaby

Cs are 5 wave moves. we are in 3 here.

dharma:

5-Wave C will come, but only after Wave b.

stubaby

I have to agree with dharma, C's are 5 wave moves.
stubaby, your A, B, C some people call it a Double Zigzag and others call it W,X,Y.
I have no problem with what you call it, it just looks very well balanced. It retraces about 61.8% of wave 1 and finds support in the middle of the congestion area between the waves of lower degree 3 & 4. My only hope is that time wise, it takes 5 weeks to finish, say by 12/12 like wave A did. Some sharp moves could help achieve that. If you draw a diagonal from the green b(1923.70) to your final C of 2, the symmetry is a beauty. Nice chart indeed.

tria

[stubaby]

there goes your 1696...you heging?

dougie:

This "downswing is ending" here IMHO - now that we have "locked-in" the Wave B (a-b-c) UP we are in Wave a of C. I am nimbling here for Wave b of C - will hedge after that Wave completes only, possibly 1,750-1,775 range - will only know probable targets after Wave a of C completes.


stubaby

Cs are 5 wave moves. we are in 3 here.

dharma:

5-Wave C will come, but only after Wave b.

stubaby

I have to agree with dharma, C's are 5 wave moves.
stubaby, your A, B, C some people call it a Double Zigzag and others call it W,X,Y.
I have no problem with what you call it, it just looks very well balanced. It retraces about 61.8% of wave 1 and finds support in the middle of the congestion area between the waves of lower degree 3 & 4. My only hope is that time wise, it takes 5 weeks to finish, say by 12/12 like wave A did. Some sharp moves could help achieve that. If you draw a diagonal from the green b(1923.70) to your final C of 2, the symmetry is a beauty. Nice chart indeed.

tria

tria:

Thanks - we ALL (Most) hold our core - so we are just utilizing EW as mental masterbation anyway! But it's nice when you at least increase your odds in any trading we do around the core! dharma convinced me awhile ago to wait for the parabola (was in the middle of the last one in the SF Bay area for the "dot-com" madness). Remember recommending selling MSFT to clients near 90 - some did - some wouldn't. After 9-11 went primarily into commodities (ex ME that I am) as I saw the decades of underinvestment.


stubaby

stubaby

[Ken]

I think there's some misunderstanding regarding Merriman's reversal dates. I'm a subscriber to Raymond Merriman - I get his yearly forecast book, his monthly MMA Cycles Report as well as his weekly Gold & Silver report. First, you must understand that Merriman has two kinds of reversal dates. The first and most important are geocosmic critical reversal dates and these dates affect all markets (precious metals, oil, bonds, currencies, equities, etc). Geocosmic reversal dates often occur when a major, half-primary or primary cycle high or low is due and usually occur within 3 trading days of the reversal date. The second reversal dates are called solar-lunar reversal dates and are specifically for silver only. On such a reversal date a trader would look for an isolated high or low in silver to trade opposite of. Usually, the reversal is 2.5% or more but the trend doesn't necessarily reverse as is the case with the geocosmic reversal dates. That said, Raymond Merriman has a geocosmic reversal date coming up on Dec 8th (the same date as dharma) and a lunar reversal date for silver on Dec 9th. How exactly does that play out? I don't know. Perhaps silver will put in a half-primary or primary cycle low on Thurs, Dec 8th and then blast up on Fri, Dec 9th with a 2.5% reversal down on Mon, Dec 12th. Then from Tues, Dec 13th silver will resume its upward trend from the lows on Thurs, Dec 8th. In Merriman's most recent weekly report written on Sun, Nov 20th where he goes into detail regarding his cycles theory he believed that gold had put in its major cycle low (major cycle lows occur 5 to 7 weeks from low to low) on Thurs, Nov 17th and Fri, Nov 18th but gold would have to hold above $1711. Well, gold did fall below $1711 this week. In the case of gold falling below $1711 he stated that the downside price target for gold would be $1575 to $1683 which already hit on Mon, Nov 21st. That might be the half - primary cycle low but at this point I don't know. Maybe the half-primary cycle low will occur on Mon, Nov 25th or Thurs, Dec 8th as some others think. It should also be noted that Merriman has Nov 22nd as a geocosmic critical reversal date as well as Nov 25th. So who knows how this will play out but that's all I can tell you right now.

Edited by Ken, 22 November 2011 - 11:04 PM.

[tria]

Thank you Ken. My sincere wishes to all of the Gold Board posters for a Happy Thanksgiving Day. tria

[tradermama]

I think there's some misunderstanding regarding Merriman's reversal dates. I'm a subscriber to Raymond Merriman - I get his yearly forecast book, his monthly MMA Cycles Report as well as his weekly Gold & Silver report.

First, you must understand that Merriman has two kinds of reversal dates. The first and most important are geocosmic critical reversal dates and these dates affect all markets (precious metals, oil, bonds, currencies, equities, etc). Geocosmic reversal dates often occur when a major, half-primary or primary cycle high or low is due and usually occur within 3 trading days of the reversal date.

The second reversal dates are called solar-lunar reversal dates and are specifically for silver only. On such a reversal date a trader would look for an isolated high or low in silver to trade opposite of. Usually, the reversal is 2.5% or more but the trend doesn't necessarily reverse as is the case with the geocosmic reversal dates.

That said, Raymond Merriman has a geocosmic reversal date coming up on Dec 8th (the same date as dharma) and a lunar reversal date for silver on Dec 9th. How exactly does that play out? I don't know. Perhaps silver will put in a half-primary or primary cycle low on Thurs, Dec 8th and then blast up on Fri, Dec 9th with a 2.5% reversal down on Mon, Dec 12th. Then from Tues, Dec 13th silver will resume its upward trend from the lows on Thurs, Dec 8th.

In Merriman's most recent weekly report written on Sun, Nov 20th where he goes into detail regarding his cycles theory he believed that gold had put in its major cycle low (major cycle lows occur 5 to 7 weeks from low to low) on Thurs, Nov 17th and Fri, Nov 18th but gold would have to hold above $1711. Well, gold did fall below $1711 this week. In the case of gold falling below $1711 he stated that the downside price target for gold would be $1575 to $1683 which already hit on Mon, Nov 21st. That might be the half - primary cycle low but at this point I don't know. Maybe the half-primary cycle low will occur on Mon, Nov 25th or Thurs, Dec 8th as some others think.

It should also be noted that Merriman has Nov 22nd as a geocosmic critical reversal date as well as Nov 25th. So who knows how this will play out but that's all I can tell you right now.

Thanks Ken.
You've explained it more clearly. Keep posting.We appreciate all posters. Have a Happy Thanksgiving too.
TM

[tradermama]

I think there's some misunderstanding regarding Merriman's reversal dates. I'm a subscriber to Raymond Merriman - I get his yearly forecast book, his monthly MMA Cycles Report as well as his weekly Gold & Silver report.

First, you must understand that Merriman has two kinds of reversal dates. The first and most important are geocosmic critical reversal dates and these dates affect all markets (precious metals, oil, bonds, currencies, equities, etc). Geocosmic reversal dates often occur when a major, half-primary or primary cycle high or low is due and usually occur within 3 trading days of the reversal date.

The second reversal dates are called solar-lunar reversal dates and are specifically for silver only. On such a reversal date a trader would look for an isolated high or low in silver to trade opposite of. Usually, the reversal is 2.5% or more but the trend doesn't necessarily reverse as is the case with the geocosmic reversal dates.

That said, Raymond Merriman has a geocosmic reversal date coming up on Dec 8th (the same date as dharma) and a lunar reversal date for silver on Dec 9th. How exactly does that play out? I don't know. Perhaps silver will put in a half-primary or primary cycle low on Thurs, Dec 8th and then blast up on Fri, Dec 9th with a 2.5% reversal down on Mon, Dec 12th. Then from Tues, Dec 13th silver will resume its upward trend from the lows on Thurs, Dec 8th.

In Merriman's most recent weekly report written on Sun, Nov 20th where he goes into detail regarding his cycles theory he believed that gold had put in its major cycle low (major cycle lows occur 5 to 7 weeks from low to low) on Thurs, Nov 17th and Fri, Nov 18th but gold would have to hold above $1711. Well, gold did fall below $1711 this week. In the case of gold falling below $1711 he stated that the downside price target for gold would be $1575 to $1683 which already hit on Mon, Nov 21st. That might be the half - primary cycle low but at this point I don't know. Maybe the half-primary cycle low will occur on Mon, Nov 25th or Thurs, Dec 8th as some others think.

It should also be noted that Merriman has Nov 22nd as a geocosmic critical reversal date as well as Nov 25th. So who knows how this will play out but that's all I can tell you right now.

Also, for me I just use this too as a guide if we are falling into the time period or going up..when we have these plus/minus 3 days..it gives a wide window that sometimes when volatility is hi is hard for me to figure out what day the reversal actually took place. I just started his monthly subscription a week ago and also been getting the book since 2000 and listen to his webcasts which the next one I believe is in December. TA for me always trumps these dates. May I ask you in your opinion how accurate do you think his exact reversal dates are compared to the plus/minus window?


TM