38 replies to this topic

[risk_management]

I think this up move has very little staying power. I got out today. The best thing for bulls would be that the market immediately turns down and make the bottom like it should. IMVHO

[andiron]

the hardest thing to do right now is go long...being short is easy (albeit painful )

[senorBS]

I was actually thinking about you as you had a sell signal at 1165.

Keeping in mind that the BETS is an intermediate term indicator of marketplace "personality", to have a nice day higher against a just given sell signal is probably more advantageous than selling on lower prices, don't you think?

keep an eye on the blips, nymo and namo not even there yet.

Being that we were so deeply "oversold" last week that even Helen Keller could had called today's reflex rally without any real knowledge of market mechanics, I find it insightful on how certain personalities have all but embraced today's technical bounce as something remarkable because the majority thought it couldn't be done. This kind of arrogance is not at all associated with price bottoms of lasting duration.

Yup...blip resistance remains, no less, texture....It's gonna take a while.

could you extrapolate on what about today has caused this concern?

The usual suspects Senor...but today's NYSE TRIN of .13 is probably the most concerning given where it took place.

ISEE at 187 is another brow raiser, but it really comes down to the velocity of money and its amplitude.

Bottom line...anyone who's being doing this kind of thing for any length of time knows that today is but one day, and a reasonable expectation after the market had a nasty technical breakdown last week.

We'll see how tomorrow goes..it's still a hit and run market.

Fib

"I find it insightful on how certain personalities have all but embraced today's technical bounce as something remarkable because the majority thought it couldn't be done. This kind of arrogance is not at all associated with price bottoms of lasting duration"

Don't really agree with this comment Fib, especially the "arrogance" part" - in fact if anything the arrogance of the bears far outweigts any the bulls have. IMO there are valid reasons to "embrace" this bounce given how and where prices bottomed Friday, most here are and have been bearish with you and IYB now on board, as I said I respect your opinions but one can I think look at Friday's lows as a completed corrections of the big October rally, S&P stopped right at .618 retrace and IMO the decline when I look across a broad range of indices are corrective. Of course we can go lower but today's rally looked pretty good IMO, but as I have said a couple times today "uno day at a time". I know where I am wrong and will have a stop just below the 50% retrace of the advance from Friday's lows.

NO BS

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 28 November 2011 - 08:40 PM.

[DrSP]

I was actually thinking about you as you had a sell signal at 1165.

Keeping in mind that the BETS is an intermediate term indicator of marketplace "personality", to have a nice day higher against a just given sell signal is probably more advantageous than selling on lower prices, don't you think?

Yeah, but that's only if we are going to fall from here.

keep an eye on the blips, nymo and namo not even there yet.

Being that we were so deeply "oversold" last week that even Helen Keller could had called today's reflex rally without any real knowledge of market mechanics,

exactly! I told my subs to take 50% of the swing sell on friday, even though my signals tell me a continuous sell here.

could you extrapolate on what about today has caused this concern?

The usual suspects Senor...but today's NYSE TRIN of .13 is probably the most concerning given where it took place.

Right on! But, TRIN at 0.13 means there is more upside for the IT with downside for the short term/ swing!

Edited by DrSP, 28 November 2011 - 08:33 PM.

[DrSP]

I went 50% long.

Did you cover your position? Is this a hedge?

[fib_1618]

the hardest thing to do right now is go long...being short is easy

No, it wasn't, and nothing is ever easy in this kind of business.

but that's only if we are going to fall from here

We should, and if we don't, I'll be building a bunker around my home and business!

But seriously speaking, money flow leads the direction of price, and this was not a healthy rally within this specific context.

TRIN at 0.13 means there is more upside for the IT

Not so...it usually means a high degree of short covering, and usually as a result of something news related. Now, short covering could lead to an advancing price structure, but you don't have the necessary foundation as yet to have one. Maybe in January?

By the way, as far as I can tell, today's .13 reading is an all time low number for the NYSE TRIN.

Don't really agree with this comment Fib as IMO there are valid reasons to "embrace" this bounce given how and where prices bottomed Friday

There is always a time and a place to embrace being a contrarian. This was neither the time nor the place. The market was deeply "oversold", and like the weight on a pressure cooker, the market relieved much of that pressure today. We might have some follow through tomorrow as well, but there's little in the way of constructive evidence from my side of the fence suggesting we won't see some additional backing and filling before we'll actually see a tradable price low...and probably below the ones we saw in August.

Today...many technicians made some good money after Friday's firmness in breadth plurality suggesting a bounce today. Now it's a matter of "show me", but I wouldn't be too disappointed when the market inhales again later this week as it continues to find its legs after losing its balance.

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 28 November 2011 - 08:56 PM.

[CLK]

I went 50% long.

Did you cover your position? Is this a hedge?

I covered around 10am, went long near AH close,TQQQ. Today was not normal for a bear
market in the wave we are in. NYMO was oversold. Either it crashed or it bottomed.
If we make new lows from here, won't make any sense, most likely a "V" bottom
with island reversal in place.

[rotrot]

NYSI has not bottomed...

[SemiBizz]

Well, I'll let everyone else worry about whether they should stay dead nuts long or short going into the Holidays... My plan is to stay tactical here. I see a sideways market trading in roughly the 1100 - 1300 range since August. We are right in the middle of that range - all we can do is layout our resistance targets and support targets and see which get tested and assess the results. This rally was no surprise and was overdue, as we saw big price destruction on no volume, and the post-thanksgiving bounce is almost an annual event. I'll just fly this mission from waypoint to waypoint for now, if the weather changes, I need to make my moves or get lost in the fog, or worse yet fly into a thunderstorm...

[iloli way]

It's easy if you spotted it six days ago when 'Who The Fool' drew those lines.