25 replies to this topic

[blustar]

My best guess is for a sideways bull flag with a cap on it through OPEX. Gratian's 14-15 week cycle top is due right in here: last week and this week. Gann's 16 TD low is due Dec 19, so we should hold the .618 retrace around 1199/1200 on that date and then rally like we did after Thanksgiving into the Bradley, Dec 28, A-B-C Y of B WAVE bull flag. To me, it looks like Monday will be up next week in the upper 1260 zone, but reversing into late Tues/early Wed to near the .50 level around SPX 1212. We have a lunar eclipse and full moon reversal due right here.

I would not be surprised at a rally back up to the top of the range by Thursday and then down pretty hard after OPEX setting up the XMAS rally. My guess is we should be above SPX 1300 by Dec 28. The next important low is the bisection of the 14 week with the 32 TD on Jan 11. The 24 TD lo is due at the end of the year and may wipe out the Xmas rally. Tuesday next week is the 12 TD lo.

So the answer is range bound until the day after OPEX, then we break out to the upside.

[slupert]

Mark, Agreed with the swing term that it is dodgy. Very short term, I got a buy signal yesterday but that may go down on Monday, will be stopped out if it gaps down.

what price are ya in at and where's the stop?

[hiker]

greetings, Selecto...fyi, I can speak from approx. 6 years of direct evidence that I possess in written form that Fib also examines the common-only data set for the NYSE using subscription data provided at decisionpoint.com

please understand that it is important to recognize that Fib speaks from a standpoint of all the data (at decisionpoint.com), and does not merely scratch the surface when coming to conclusions about the application of the breadth practices which he utilizes

"FIB, I assume you (and other internals people) are happy with NYA stats
to divine the SPX. I ask, because half the issues on the NYSE are fixed
income plays."

hope you have a good weekend! - hiker

p.s. I only barge in here with this explanation, so that your receive the clarification from someone else other than Fib ... none of my business I realize, but
I do know from direct experience what Fib actually looks at for data ...and the data set extends far beyond the "all components" data set from the NYSE.

ALERT: "this is America - you pay for it if you want to see all of the content." LOL

Edited by hiker, 10 December 2011 - 03:21 PM.

[selecto]

Thanks, Hiker. The chart Fib posted is NYUD so I just
wondered if the mojo would look the same on a SPXUD,
for instance.

[hiker]

Selecto,

I keep breadth data which updates intraday real-time for the SPX, NDX, etc
using a simple spreadsheet which has a live data feed

at each day's close it is easy to examine the raw data and manipulate it.

it took me about 1 hour per index to create this. very little maintenance is required when symbols change or delete and adds
from an index..such as JOYG is now JOY.

for your question, a person with this data can easily and without reliance on a "service" calculate
the dollar value of the breadth change by price X volume or some other multiplier for each of the 500 symbols within the SPX index.

this is easily accomplished, based on what I have personally experienced with very little work hours, and no help from anyone

- hiker

Thanks, Hiker. The chart Fib posted is NYUD so I just
wondered if the mojo would look the same on a SPXUD,
for instance.

Edited by hiker, 10 December 2011 - 03:31 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

I don't see what could derail a big rally.

Worries grow over IMF loans...

Edited by Rogerdodger, 10 December 2011 - 04:30 PM.

[Lysis]

I don't see what could derail a big rally.

Worries grow over IMF loans...

Everyone here seems to be muy positivo. BS?

[Bernie]

http://postimage.org/image/7cdrnyy1p/

SP DBW

[DrSP]

http://postimage.org/image/7cdrnyy1p/

SP DBW

In my reply to Bob-C on Q3, I also said the flags should soon resolve one way or another.

[CLK]

I've got a sell for Monday, I'd rather price be at a higher high, so it's a weak sell.