25 replies to this topic

[Darris]

Selecto, SPX PMM was up 60 cents on Friday. PMM at DP is EOD price based while BPSPX is Daily price range based. I use both, but would rather see both of them saying the same thing, fwiw.

[Geomean]

FWIW, I've observed over the years that Fib based SMA's and EMA's, or multiple's thereof, 13, 21, 34, 55 and 89, and for longer term the 180 (2x 89), and 377 do a good job of defining support and resistance and general market structure. 144 and 233 not so much, for some reason. I understand Mark's skepticism/query, as most are aware, some MA crossover and S/R systems have been found to be very robust when back tested. Obviously the use of fib settings for MA's are consistent with the many other indicators and studies that are grounded in fibonacci relationships and together often well describe both past and possible future market structures, [and thus can help in both defining trade placement, signal failures or confirmations, and hence potential gain/loss, stop and exit calculations]. But to aid my understanding I had to rephrase the question: namely what path(s) would take the most money out of the most pockets, and put it in the pockets of the few?

[securelstmile]

I can't stand being criticized because the only one allowed to tell me I am wrong is Ms Market herself (and she does that plenty) but I will share this chart anyway because Mark is such a great guy.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...amp;a=250484782

[Cirrus]

Posting this, but I know nothing, nothing...





FIB, I assume you (and other internals people) are happy with NYA stats
to divine the SPX. I ask, because half the issues on the NYSE are fixed
income plays. I note some interesting discrepancies also. For instance
BPSPX mo gives me a "sell" Friday (and was down), while BPNYA is merrily
trucking along (and was up).

I think up than down but just a guess. I would say generally up towards Jan OPEX and then down. My reasoning is just sentiment and wall of cash from bonds to stocks.

I completely agree with you about NYA. I never look at those stats anymore for reasons you mention. I mainly use SPX and SPX internals, R2K w/internals and NDX w/internals.

[Echo]

Thanks, Hiker. The chart Fib posted is NYUD so I just
wondered if the mojo would look the same on a SPXUD,
for instance.

M, here is a view of the SPY UD via SPY. Bottom panel.

The bearish divergence in late July before the cascade drop is glaring.
The recovery in Oct to the late Oct highs was robust and if anything leading price.
The latest recovery in UD in the past 2 wks appears to be lagging price if compared to the early Nov highs, with price recovering nearly fully and UD lagging, perhaps cancelling its "leading" stance in early Nov.

FWIW

Doc

[fib_1618]

I assume you (and other internals people) are happy with NYA stats to divine the SPX. I ask, because half the issues on the NYSE are fixed
income plays. I note some interesting discrepancies also.

Of the 3226 issues on the NYSE, 1050 are those that would be considered "fixed income" issues...about a 1/3.

Technical Watch breaks down this same A/D data each week in the following categories:

Common Stocks
Bond CEF
Preferred
Specialty (rights, warrants, trusts, LP's, and non members)

Looking at the cumulative charts that are posted each and every weekend shows that NYUD, AMUD and NAUD lines are not in bullish configurations at this time. Doc has provided an U/D chart of the SPY which pretty much echos these same configurations.

Now, it should be duly noted that with the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line at all time highs, and the NYSE Preferred A/D line nearly so, that if it wasn't for these fixed income issues, the NYUD line would look far worse than it is right now...neutral with a bearish bias. It might also be of further interest that just about all of the NYSE volume MCSUM's are teetering on Summation Failure patterns right now which suggests a great deal of short term caution.

As I've been saying for several weeks now, just be careful in assuming that things look one way or the other until more information is available. The current marketplace is not at all stable enough at this time to provide a rising price structure. The bulls can correct this, but it will still be at least a couple of more weeks before there will be enough of a foundation to support such a structure. In the meantime, a full defensive posture is still highly warranted.

Fib