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Gold correction e-wave so far


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#1 cedartree

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 12:11 AM

From the 1923 top, wave A down was 388 dollars. If C=A target will be 1416 If we are correcting the move up from 681, a 38% retrace would target 1451, 50% would be 1302! Wave B up was 269 dollars, a .693 retrace Wave 1 of C down was 137 dollars Wave 2 of C was 100 dollars, a .73 retrace Wave 3 of C targets are 1545(if wave 3 is 1.62 of wave 1) and 1493 (if wave 3 is 2x wave 1). Time: Wave 1 of C was 15 days, wave 2 was 32 days. Wave 1 of 3 was 8 days. Wave 2 of 3 was 9 days. Thursday will be day 8 of wave 3 of C.

#2 cedartree

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:34 AM

From the 1923 top, wave A down was 388 dollars. If C=A target will be 1416
If we are correcting the move up from 681, a 38% retrace would target 1451, 50% would be 1302!
Wave B up was 269 dollars, a .693 retrace
Wave 1 of C down was 137 dollars
Wave 2 of C was 100 dollars, a .73 retrace
Wave 3 of C targets are 1545(if wave 3 is 1.62 of wave 1) and 1493 (if wave 3 is 2x wave 1).
Time:
Wave 1 of C was 15 days, wave 2 was 32 days. Wave 1 of 3 was 8 days. Wave 2 of 3 was 9 days.
Thursday will be day 8 of wave 3 of C.



If we can hold this double bottom area around 1545, then we can possibly have a descending flat bottom triangle, with a D up and E down still to come. In this case the C wave is composed of only 3 waves. Another support for this possibility is that $28.00 is the bottom tine of my silver pitchfork on the daily chart. We got down there last night and it is still holding here on Thursday morning.

#3 stubaby

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:44 AM

From the 1923 top, wave A down was 388 dollars. If C=A target will be 1416
If we are correcting the move up from 681, a 38% retrace would target 1451, 50% would be 1302!
Wave B up was 269 dollars, a .693 retrace
Wave 1 of C down was 137 dollars
Wave 2 of C was 100 dollars, a .73 retrace
Wave 3 of C targets are 1545(if wave 3 is 1.62 of wave 1) and 1493 (if wave 3 is 2x wave 1).
Time:
Wave 1 of C was 15 days, wave 2 was 32 days. Wave 1 of 3 was 8 days. Wave 2 of 3 was 9 days.
Thursday will be day 8 of wave 3 of C.


cedartree:

Your Count? (except I have top at 1,917):
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p59410583119&a=251081421&r=842.png

And a more complex alternative if this Wave C bottoms before 1,516:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p59410583119&a=251082785&r=444.png

stubaby
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#4 beta

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 01:47 PM

I believe we are nearing the completion of a 20-week corrective decline, that started in late August 2011 ... and will complete by the end of this year.
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#5 tria

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 02:19 PM

Beta: McClellan speaks of a 13.5 month cycle bottomoning in the end of next quarter. Terry Laundry has a similar bearish forcast for early next year. Too early to tell, I have started following the Gold's lease rates to see the possibility of bottoming so soon. stubaby: My hat off to you for stating that 12/08 would be a high and not a low. Advance inside information from Mario Draghi perhaps? -tria

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#6 cedartree

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 03:08 PM

From the 1923 top, wave A down was 388 dollars. If C=A target will be 1416
If we are correcting the move up from 681, a 38% retrace would target 1451, 50% would be 1302!
Wave B up was 269 dollars, a .693 retrace
Wave 1 of C down was 137 dollars
Wave 2 of C was 100 dollars, a .73 retrace
Wave 3 of C targets are 1545(if wave 3 is 1.62 of wave 1) and 1493 (if wave 3 is 2x wave 1).
Time:
Wave 1 of C was 15 days, wave 2 was 32 days. Wave 1 of 3 was 8 days. Wave 2 of 3 was 9 days.
Thursday will be day 8 of wave 3 of C.


cedartree:

Your Count? (except I have top at 1,917):
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p59410583119&a=251081421&r=842.png

And a more complex alternative if this Wave C bottoms before 1,516:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p59410583119&a=251082785&r=444.png

stubaby



Stubaby, Thank you for posting such accurate charts of my two possible counts. Your use of 1917 for the top would make my A wave 24 days instead of 15. Now I notice that my time counts are all wrong! This is what they should be:
Wave A: 15 or 24 trading days (1923 or 1917 top)
Wave B: 32 days
Wave 1 of C: 8 days
Wave 2 of C: 9 days
Wave 3 of C: 8 days ( as of 12/15)

#7 gismeu

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 03:37 PM

Hi,

just discovered this site:

http://www.tradinglo...03/Default.aspx

if you scroll down a bit, they got some charts with EW counts on gold.
Might be of interest to some here.

gis
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#8 cedartree

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 04:41 PM

Hi,

just discovered this site:

http://www.tradinglo...03/Default.aspx

if you scroll down a bit, they got some charts with EW counts on gold.
Might be of interest to some here.

gis

Thanks, gismeu. Peter seems to have the same count so far. I don't know what time zone he is in, but his posts are a whole week ahead of us! :lol:

#9 gismeu

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 10:15 PM

[/quote] Thanks, gismeu. Peter seems to have the same count so far. I don't know what time zone he is in, but his posts are a whole week ahead of us! :lol: [/quote] Who is Peter please? Thanks, gis
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#10 cedartree

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Posted 15 December 2011 - 11:47 PM

Who is Peter please? Thanks, gis [/quote] I think that Peter is the author of the blog(from down under in Australia). I guess that he prefers to trade our markets utilizing CFD's...a trading vehicle that much of the world uses, but our SEC has not yet approved for our use.