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Index Trends 6/4/04


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#1 Porter

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Posted 04 June 2004 - 04:43 PM

Monthly Trend Value 2 (mixed) Weekly Trend Value 1 (mixed) Daily Trend Value 8 (trending up) 45-min Trend Value 3 (mixed) Turtle Trend (LT) 2 (mixed) SPM Trend ..........Q......M.....W.....D.....45' SPM....U......U......U.....U......U Value..2......0......1......2......2 ------------ SHORT TERM TRENDS Opening Range Trend Daily--Up Weekly--Up Monthly--Neutral Globex 45-min Trend Up 135-min Trend Up ------------- Keltner Band Trend 10-day Up 7-day Up 2-day Neutral ----------- Moving Average Trend Mason-Dixon (NDX 200H) Up Gator (SPX 13D+8) Up Mallory (NYA 49D) Up SB (SPX 75D) Neutral Chandelier Trend Zweig (MID5%) Up Stox (NAZ9%) Down Junk (ML1%) Up --------------- Intermediate Momentum Indicators NY ITBM Up NY 10D NH% Up ND 10D DEAD Up ND BP RSI Up NY Vol McSum Up ND Vol McSum Up Comments The Turtle Trend turned up today for the SPX. The E-mini sprang the 6/3 Globex low at 1116.75/ESM and then made a new rally high. That is positive action. The short term uptrend is intact. Porter

#2 PorkLoin

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Posted 06 June 2004 - 11:12 AM

The Turtle Trend turned up today for the SPX.
The E-mini sprang the 6/3 Globex low at 1116.75/ESM and then made a new rally high.
That is positive action. The short term uptrend is intact.

Porter, good comments, and you're a model of posting consistency. I'm interested in how you see this year's action, i.e. a top, then three-wave correction to the May low, or another view, etc.

Also, if you have time, what's your take on the whole rally from the 2002/2003 lows?

Thanks,

Doug

#3 Porter

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Posted 07 June 2004 - 11:10 PM

I'm interested in how you see this year's action, i.e. a top, then three-wave correction to the May low, or another view, etc.


I mostly follow the Quarterly and Monthly trends.
The Quarterly trend in all 4 indices is up.
The Monthly trend for the NYA, SPX, and Compx is up.
The NYA and SPX sprang a Monthly bottom (March bottom) which is positive action.

All the above action is quite positive, and were it not for the MID I would be in the fib and IYB camp of bulls calling for a new intermediate term uptrend.
But the MID Monthly trend is Down.
That makes me think that there will be some sort of test of the May low.



Also, if you have time, what's your take on the whole rally from the 2002/2003 lows?


With the Quarterly trend up for all 4 indices I have to view the rally from the October 2002 low as a cyclical bull market.
Until the Quarterly trend shows some sign of weakening or the Monthly trend of the SPX turns down, I have the view the cyclical bull market as being intact.

I usually don't bother with any higher order trends than the Quarterly.
But migz has made me aware a higher order trend may be important and that is we get Yearly top below the 2000 top the market may be in trouble.
But that is for next year.

Porter

#4 PorkLoin

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Posted 08 June 2004 - 02:25 PM

Thank you, Porter. Agreed that a yearly top below the levels of 2000 (and that seems very likely) could set the stage for another big decline. My view is that the move up from 2002 is but a correction in a larger ongoing bear market. On the "cyclical bull market" from 2002, I have to agree there too; by price and time it qualifies. Whether we first test the May lows or the April or year's highs I have no idea. There's plenty of money to fuel a lot more rally should it go into stocks, and it is an election year. For now all I can do is watch the pattern from the March lows and the May lows. Next year ought to be interesting -- we have a year ending in "5" and the recent decennial pattern shows that to be very bullish. Yet, it's also the next after an election year, and even a reaction to the post-2002 rally could be wicked, let alone a resumption of the downmove from 2000. Best, Doug

#5 Porter

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Posted 08 June 2004 - 10:33 PM

For now all I can do is watch the pattern from the March lows and the May lows.


Both the Compx and the MID sure look like 5 waves up from the 5/17 low.
Do you see it that way also?

Porter

#6 PorkLoin

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Posted 09 June 2004 - 08:24 AM

For now all I can do is watch the pattern from the March lows and the May lows.


Both the Compx and the MID sure look like 5 waves up from the 5/17 low.
Do you see it that way also?

Yes indeed, Porter -- I think all the indices (that I checked) are showing five waves up now. The bullish case of completed ABC corrections from the year's high to the May lows, followed by five waves up, would be pretty much unassailable.

My problem with it is the nature of the decline from the April high to the May low. If we had an ABC, then the C (April to May) should have been five waves. In all but the COMP.X it looks better as three waves to me, though, and even the COMP is doubtful.

If that decline really is three waves/corrective/not a C, then maybe we're doing an ABC from the March low -- a bearish view that would have us in a C wave now, up from the May lows. If so, then when this C wave completes, we should have an impulsive/five-wave decline.

It's certainly not impossible that the April to May decline was the end of the correction from the year's highs, and if so then the current impulsive/five-wave rally from the May lows should be followed by a choppy, overlapping, corrective-looking move down or sideways.

I lean toward an overall bullish outcome here, in terms of weeks and months, but am pretty much in limbo for a little while until things clear up a bit.

Best,

Doug