239 replies to this topic

[dharma]

just reporting what i see, hourly divergences in gld, hui, gdx. some kind of short term topappear to be forming here and now. i am as bullish as the next guy, but the market is telling me caution warranted right here dharma

[senorBS]

dharma:

Haven't had time to post of late but here are my observations:

Only 2 viable EW counts remaining for GOLD and 1 outlier:

Completing Wave D of triangle here with Wave E to follow towards +- 1,600 (50%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251890507&r=3518.png

Completing Wave 1 of new impulse Wave Up with Wave 2 to follow: (40%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251442954&r=141.png

Outlier - Completing Wave B now with entire Wave C ahead (10%)
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75242258115&a=251439079&r=164.png

The character and depth of the next corrective should eliminate the outlier and help solidify one or the other of the viable counts.

stubaby

Traders want to know - "IS IT REAL OR IS IT MEMOREX?" I'm calling this impulse the precursor to the 'real trending impulse higher" - If it's a 'typical' Wave 2, i.e, sharp and hard down - I predict that few will buy it and those that jumped aboard yesterday will bail! PERFECT!

with all respect amigo how can this be a contracting triangle when wave "c" as you label it clearly went below wave "a" on both daily and weekly print and close only charts? - no way that is a valid count. That was a simple abc decline from the highh and nort she goes.

NO BS

Senor

Senor BS:

Wave C ended at 1,562 - Wave A at 1,535 by this count??? Hopefully it can be eliminated with Gold printing well above 1,750!


stubaby

you have a lot of stuff on those charts so it can be a little tough to read for an old hombre like me. I like to keep it simple, from 1921 high wave A bottomed at 1543 in Sep (using Futures), B went up to 1806, C down finished in late Dec around 1524, IMO this is easily the most likely count, others are always possible but mucho lower in odds. I think daily charts headed up in tres wave to 1800 muy rapido, we see.

Senor

[stubaby]

[/quote] you have a lot of stuff on those charts so it can be a little tough to read for an old hombre like me. I like to keep it simple, from 1921 high wave A bottomed at 1543 in Sep (using Futures), B went up to 1806, C down finished in late Dec around 1524, IMO this is easily the most likely count, others are always possible but mucho lower in odds. I think daily charts headed up in tres wave to 1800 muy rapido, we see. Senor [/quote] Senor BS: As you know EW is about alternatives and odds or "mental masturbation" at times! The fact is I bought on December 29th when I saw the divergences (gold down - miners reversal) and am still long and waiting for the structure to "play-out". I am looking for somekind of corrective off of this impulse when it completes - that should tell us a lot! Thanks for all your inputs. stubaby

[tria]

In addition, the September electronic lows were tested on 12/29 with lesser volume on regular trading hours (when we were not asleep). -tria

[tria]

Platinum, Palladium and Copper have been rising throughout January with rising O.I., which is normal. Gold has been rising the last 3 days with big volume but with flat O.I., a bit peculiar. Silver on the other hand, has been rising throughout January on a declining O.I., not good usually. Any thoughts? Anyone? -tria

[gismeu]

{{{Silver on the other hand, has been rising throughout January on a declining O.I., not good usually.}}} Wouldn't that point to short covering? gis

[tria]

{{{Silver on the other hand, has been rising throughout January on a declining O.I., not good usually.}}}


Wouldn't that point to short covering?

gis

Exacrly, only short covering and no new buying has me slightly worried. Unless the initial short covering was so big that it offset the new buying. Must watch what happens on the new upmove when/if it comes to decide.

-tria

[dharma]

this is not an original thought, but one i agree w/. the cartel realizes that they are fighting a losing war, so they are letting the metals rise in a controlled manner. they are and have been covering their short position. and adding to their longs. which seems to explain the fairly stable silver oi. i scaled back to being almost all in , got rid of all margin. now , i am back on the prowl. i have nothing this week. so, i am not in any hurry to initiate new longs. i had mentioned and thought that i thought there would be struggle @the downtrend line-there wasnt. we just blew by. but, i thought when we took out the downtrend line , new longs would initiate positions. now they will take a quick visit to the woodshed. traderama and i have talked about the full moon on the 7th , and we have both come to the conclusion that the low would be the 6-7th . nothing that i see has changed that view. imo the fed brought the world into their meeting, announced their intentions. and of course when something is said, everyone interprets what they heard. i heard they stand ready to print. qe is on the table. nothing is off the table. and their plan is to keep rates low till 2014. well the largest buyers of debt;japan is in rebuilding mode , china is in recession, and england had euro problems and their own problems. so , that leaves the fed to buy to maintain low rates. w/a flick of a switch they have the money to do just that! sinclair who i have a world of respect for. said recently that he expected firms like ge to be buyers of gold. we all expected institutions to come in and start buying, but he spells it out. dharma

[dharma]

gold/miners holding firm even when the dow was down triple digits. worked off the short term overbought situation dharma

[jabat]

Rambus projections of HUI to 1645 by Feb 2013

http://rambus1.com/