239 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

KWN News December 22, 2011: Jim Sinclair - The Gold Panic & What to Expect in 2012

[dharma]

dougie-maybe i am just dense!? i have never seen a major decline begin from such low daily rsi readings! it seems every where i turn another analyst is bearish. after 10years of higher highs =bullish action. like the leaders of the world , i sit up and take notice while they are talking . but my eyes are glued to what they do. this is lackluster action @its finest . so its a yawn. for my eyes the miners have done squat in 11, however, they are making a high level consolidation for an upthrust. might we go down 1st! sure anything is possible. could it be topping action? sure it could be. in bull markets , by definition, higher highs are needed. and significant lows should not be violated. 08-9 waas the last significant lows. actually i am watching 1033 for gold, i dont think that should be violated. again , i listen , but i watch the market. happy holidays everyone! lets see what 12 brings. of course 1st there is next week dharma

[stubaby]

One more thought near-term - looks to me like we are setting up for an island reversal in the mining indices

stubaby

http://stockcharts.c...466338&r=92.png

[dharma]

after the great depression, there was one country that remained unscathed by the war, one country that had positive balance sheets, w/a population of savers. so when the war ended the usa was the undisputed economic leader today, there is one country in that position and that is china. they have lots of cash, a positive cash flow, and a country of savers now , i hear all the talk that they are on the verge of crashing, which may be the case. but , having a positive cash flow and lots of cash , puts them in a position of leadership. so , keep the previous example of the usa ascension in mind before pronouncing the chinese as being finished. if history is a guide, then obviously they are not finished. dharma

[stubaby]

precious-metals-2012-bullish-and-bearish-arguments

Some great information here.


stubaby

[dharma]

the week between christmas and new years is always quiet. the cot is very bullish w/the commercials being long silver and gold in spite of the piece stu posted, sentiment is quite bullish. price continues to languish. oscillators are low. but, anything goes. the talking continues . mouths are moving and the debt crises is not going away. and i will continue to remain focused on this sector. its all about sovereign debt. dharma

[johngeorge]

dharma

Speaking of sovereign debt two articles I found interesting this am at Zero Hedge:

Japan Will Raise More Cash From Debt Issuance Than Taxes For Fourth Year In A Row

China Insolvency Wave Begins As Nation's Biggest Provincial Borrowers "Defer" Loan Payments

I wish everyone here a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year.

[dharma]

as we approach the new year , the forecasters offer up their views of the new year. lassonde is looking for gold 1500-1700 for the new year . sinclair looking for 1700-2100. and i sit here scratching my head. there are so many crosscurrents its difficult to see what is going to grab investors attention. and to top it all off , 12 is an election year. here is what i see. dollar strength = euro weakness. its not the dollar isnt flawed, obviously it is. our president has signed off on budget deficits that are the largest in usa history. so w/growing deficits and a negative cash flow how can the dollar be considered a sound currency? germany is afraid of hyperinflation, it should be feared by all, so they appear to be favoring deflation. in short deflation is the dominant force imo , and has been for a couple of years. then there is the fed , ben tends to favor loose money. then there are the piigs obviously w/debt that cant be sustained. and the market place is still offering them rates @7% japan in rebuild and their economy has been in the can for decades it seems the gold market from a sentiment point of view is extremely bullish, if you hold any credence in hulberts bullish consensus #s. the oscillators are very low, hard to imagine a major hit taking place from these #s. i am in watch mode, and if that turns out to be the case for 12 so be it. i am not going to try and force anything. spinning my wheels is no fun. and it is a waste of energy. it remains to be seen what the dominant themes for 12 are . time will tell dharma

[johngeorge]

dharma I might add that there are ongoing geopolitical tensions with Iran/Israel/US regards nuclear capability and the always blowing up of Africa. US to send troops to Nigeria and China very very concerned about its oil supplies. Time for China to start sending troops? I think it is or will be soon. Best to you.

[stubaby]

it remains to be seen what the dominant themes for 12 are . time will tell

With the Mayan calender "in play" - the masses will begin to take more risk (the WTF factor) - we saw the same thing around Y2K.

Chinese have been "quiet" for a while here - that should change in the year forward.

In addition the miners are in a much better fundamental position today, unlike 2008 when the run-up before the drop was not suppported by improving fundamentals.

I'm looking for the miners to run off of this corrective into 2013, even with range-bound gold price.


stubaby