37 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I do not care either way Nav as you likely know by now.

over 1272 north or south it goes and the longs need 1223 to hold if it sells for some days. That is the game plan as of right now. Not real complicated or emotional.

Above 1257 i have no interest in short side. Below that i would have no interest in the long side.

Anyway i am still curious as what this TURN means. If 1% move qualifies as a turn, then we turn everyday.

[dasein]

iloli - dont think there is more than a ST relationship that is linear - but what i found, using proxies- may 1 2011 - spx1363 gld 152.3 fxe 147.5 tlt 93.99 yesterday - spx 1277 gld 1567 fxe 129 tlt 118 hmm bonds up about 30% - who needs to trade

[viccarter]

Can you guys define "Turn" ? - 1% move ? 5% ? 10% ? ST/IT ? Hourly/Daily/Weekly ?

I see a lot of premature excitement here.

Nav, you are bar none in elite company around here. Oct. 28 was my last swing short. I took my last swing long EOD Tuesday before Thanksgiving and participated fully in that rally the week after Thanksgiving.

As you well know, buying dips off the 15 to 45 minute SPY or IWM charts has been very profitable for a while. The truth is: I have no idea what is going to happen going forward. I saw some bullish things on DXY and UST (daily) but then again you have NFP tomorrow and that reaction could be the tell.

Do you believe we can really drop for more than a day or 2? I have no idea and will trade accordingly by taking the quick profit on shorts when I can. But by doing this I realize that I will probably miss the bigger move if it comes. Right now I am not confident in anything either way long term. I just can't tell. One thing thing about me, by the time I start running my mouth about a trade that went my way, my $$ is probably already off the table

[andiron]

Bears still will have to wait....i expected today would be up but i guess rally peak has been postponed well into next week... now the payroll manana will be deemed a good one..i presume

[MikeyG]

I see a lot of premature excitement here.

I see cautious bears...

[iloli way]

iloli -

dont think there is more than a ST relationship that is linear - but what i found, using proxies-

may 1 2011 - spx1363 gld 152.3 fxe 147.5 tlt 93.99
yesterday - spx 1277 gld 1567 fxe 129 tlt 118

hmm bonds up about 30% - who needs to trade

Thank you, K.

Using yours, spx should be 1192 per fxe May relation. Sign of strength or lag? Just saying...what's the thinking along that line? which way is more adamant? how reliable is the bias? say for euro crash panic now isn't it baseless? more questions than jump conclusions, that's what I see.

btw, Didn't mean to use age as TA helper, if even sounded like that reading my blah, blah...no connection whatsoever in fact. If aging ever helps, is making me more rely on pure technical than other means ever so much.

[Om_Namah_Shivay]

iloli -

dont think there is more than a ST relationship that is linear - but what i found, using proxies-

may 1 2011 - spx1363 gld 152.3 fxe 147.5 tlt 93.99
yesterday - spx 1277 gld 1567 fxe 129 tlt 118

hmm bonds up about 30% - who needs to trade

Thank you, K.

Using yours, spx should be 1192 per fxe May relation. Sign of strength or lag? Just saying...what's the thinking along that line? which way is more adamant? how reliable is the bias? say for euro crash panic now isn't it baseless? more questions than jump conclusions, that's what I see.

btw, Didn't mean to use age as TA helper, if even sounded like that reading my blah, blah...no connection whatsoever in fact. If aging ever helps, is making me more rely on pure technical than other means ever so much.

I guess it is that simple....only that in this world of 0% interest rate (for trading) any move can be exponentially exaggerated by tunes of 3-10X.

For good traders it is a boon of lifetime, never could the cost of money be this low.
Come to think about it, game has begun.

[iloli way]

For good traders it is a boon of lifetime, never could the cost of money be this low.
Come to think about it, game has begun.

No-cheating-prerequisite!

[iloli way]

So far this morning: SO FAR I mean, the joker was the Orange subliminal line.

Know your bear bait when necessary: Purple line needs to be no-doubt first.

[dasein]

Using yours, spx should be 1192 per fxe May relation. Sign of strength or lag?

No, what I meant by "I dont think there is more than a ST relationship that is linear - this kind of issue to issue ratio paradigm will not work, there are too many other factors that effect both numerator and denominator to just say "multiply by the ratio" - so I do not mean sPX should already be down to 1192, even if I think we will be lower than that soon enough, and I think the euro will too.