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Prelude to a upswing


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 02:50 PM

Granted, that's an ugly chart for a gold bull at the moment but...

Under the heading of "it's Las Vegas but they let you count the cards," or maybe just "buy low, sell high", NEM is down seven days in a row (assuming it stays down for the day). That's only happened 5 times in the past 10 years. With the exception of October, 2008, on each previous occasion that was the prelude to a pop to the upside (even 2008 popped for a day), and most often it has led to a swing to the upside (in this case maybe a run to top of the range...just a maybe...).

I'm might be hexing it here but unless NEM is going out of business and forgot to mention it to anyone or the Fed can figure out a way to crush the entire metals complex tomorrow, it's likely going to to happen again.

Okay, where's the stop? How about some percentage (two to five percent below today's close, depending on a trader's risk tolerance)? Or how about if it's not making money by Thursday...

Good luck and good trading. :)

http://stockcharts.c...68765&r=463.png

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#2 SemiBizz

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 03:11 PM

My charts disagree with this one, I show 01/18 and UP day (Green Candle) opened at 60.24 and closed at 60.35.
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#3 SemiBizz

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 03:19 PM

BTW, I don't see any signs of strength here and the XAU is trading UNDER the August lows... So why wouldn't this one test? :huh:
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#4 diogenes227

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 03:27 PM

My charts disagree with this one, I show 01/18 and UP day (Green Candle) opened at 60.24 and closed at 60.35.

Yes, I have that UP candle in Trade Station too, but it's a down close from 60.94 on the 01/17. Seven consecutive days down from close to close.

How about this one? Closed at 59.27 on 01/20, and 59.26 on the next trading day 01/23 according to my Trade Station data. As they say, "penny wise..." :)

What do you think about the declining volume at the moment?

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#5 SemiBizz

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 04:05 PM

I think as long as the XAU stays under those August Lows the gold stocks go down... I don't have today's volume yet, but we saw a lower low on the XAU today, lower closing low, that all applies to weekly, monthly, YTD. BEARISH So nope, need to see a sign of strength. You can't just buy things because volume is light making new lows. Gotta see some buyers step up and defend it.
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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#6 diogenes227

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Posted 24 January 2012 - 04:54 PM

I think as long as the XAU stays under those August Lows the gold stocks go down...

I don't have today's volume yet, but we saw a lower low on the XAU today, lower closing low, that all applies to weekly, monthly, YTD. BEARISH

So nope, need to see a sign of strength.

You can't just buy things because volume is light making new lows.

Gotta see some buyers step up and defend it.

Thanks for the reply. Can't disagree at all on the bear rumble in the metals sector (also long ZSL), but on the seventh day methinks (maybe I should say mehopes) even sellers rest...

Just gambling on a pop with a stop. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#7 johngeorge

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 03:26 AM

FWIW from Barchart.com NEM, XAU
Peace
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#8 SemiBizz

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 11:02 AM

I think as long as the XAU stays under those August Lows the gold stocks go down...

I don't have today's volume yet, but we saw a lower low on the XAU today, lower closing low, that all applies to weekly, monthly, YTD. BEARISH

So nope, need to see a sign of strength.

You can't just buy things because volume is light making new lows.

Gotta see some buyers step up and defend it.

Thanks for the reply. Can't disagree at all on the bear rumble in the metals sector (also long ZSL), but on the seventh day methinks (maybe I should say mehopes) even sellers rest...

Just gambling on a pop with a stop. :)



You got a bounce this morning on a lighter hourly volume test of the previous low, but looking at the hourly chart, this particular "bounce off the low" is coming on much less volume and conviction than we have seen at previous attempts... about 60% of benchmarked hourly volume.
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#9 diogenes227

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 11:32 AM

Semi, Thanks for tracking this. I'm moving my stop to break even and see how it goes. Got some GDX and ABX this morning too, all in the context of down too long. Moved stops on those too. Johngeorge, Thanks for the Barchart link. I have no delusions about how bearish this sector is.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#10 SemiBizz

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 11:40 AM

XAU was down on lighter volume yesterday... Hence, an "oversold on light volume" bounce kicked in I have a short term target and a longer term target. We'll see how it goes. If XAU can get back above those August Lows, it is probably in business for another try to break the highs. Just added the XAU to the long list of indices, commodities and currency crosses we track every day. Along with the RUT Cash Index, we have been covering the RUT Futures for some time now.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics