Prelude to a upswing
#1
Posted 24 January 2012 - 02:50 PM
Under the heading of "it's Las Vegas but they let you count the cards," or maybe just "buy low, sell high", NEM is down seven days in a row (assuming it stays down for the day). That's only happened 5 times in the past 10 years. With the exception of October, 2008, on each previous occasion that was the prelude to a pop to the upside (even 2008 popped for a day), and most often it has led to a swing to the upside (in this case maybe a run to top of the range...just a maybe...).
I'm might be hexing it here but unless NEM is going out of business and forgot to mention it to anyone or the Fed can figure out a way to crush the entire metals complex tomorrow, it's likely going to to happen again.
Okay, where's the stop? How about some percentage (two to five percent below today's close, depending on a trader's risk tolerance)? Or how about if it's not making money by Thursday...
Good luck and good trading.
http://stockcharts.c...68765&r=463.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#2
Posted 24 January 2012 - 03:11 PM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#3
Posted 24 January 2012 - 03:19 PM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#4
Posted 24 January 2012 - 03:27 PM
Yes, I have that UP candle in Trade Station too, but it's a down close from 60.94 on the 01/17. Seven consecutive days down from close to close.My charts disagree with this one, I show 01/18 and UP day (Green Candle) opened at 60.24 and closed at 60.35.
How about this one? Closed at 59.27 on 01/20, and 59.26 on the next trading day 01/23 according to my Trade Station data. As they say, "penny wise..."
What do you think about the declining volume at the moment?
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#5
Posted 24 January 2012 - 04:05 PM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#6
Posted 24 January 2012 - 04:54 PM
Thanks for the reply. Can't disagree at all on the bear rumble in the metals sector (also long ZSL), but on the seventh day methinks (maybe I should say mehopes) even sellers rest...I think as long as the XAU stays under those August Lows the gold stocks go down...
I don't have today's volume yet, but we saw a lower low on the XAU today, lower closing low, that all applies to weekly, monthly, YTD. BEARISH
So nope, need to see a sign of strength.
You can't just buy things because volume is light making new lows.
Gotta see some buyers step up and defend it.
Just gambling on a pop with a stop.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#8
Posted 25 January 2012 - 11:02 AM
Thanks for the reply. Can't disagree at all on the bear rumble in the metals sector (also long ZSL), but on the seventh day methinks (maybe I should say mehopes) even sellers rest...I think as long as the XAU stays under those August Lows the gold stocks go down...
I don't have today's volume yet, but we saw a lower low on the XAU today, lower closing low, that all applies to weekly, monthly, YTD. BEARISH
So nope, need to see a sign of strength.
You can't just buy things because volume is light making new lows.
Gotta see some buyers step up and defend it.
Just gambling on a pop with a stop.
You got a bounce this morning on a lighter hourly volume test of the previous low, but looking at the hourly chart, this particular "bounce off the low" is coming on much less volume and conviction than we have seen at previous attempts... about 60% of benchmarked hourly volume.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#9
Posted 25 January 2012 - 11:32 AM
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#10
Posted 25 January 2012 - 11:40 AM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics