T-theory Terry Laundry Growing Bull Horns
#1
Posted 28 January 2012 - 10:37 AM
#2
Posted 28 January 2012 - 10:55 AM
The Ringing Cycles are not working. They call for a decline on the last one (17wks), but the investors are not having any of it. Parker (the sorcers guru) is scrabling to find out
why investor don't have much confidence (index), yet have not sold equities. Could it be the an unexpected (in T theory) rally is in the offing, or it is just late?
Stay tuned, will the wheels come off the bus at T theory, or is there yet another dip in the near future ??
He is selling money management to the common man (buy his bible and get in). Is this guy real, his money management results look good, but the backroom is a mess right now.
Best, Islander
Edited by Islander, 28 January 2012 - 10:56 AM.
#3
Posted 28 January 2012 - 11:03 AM
T-theory's Terry Laundry is sounding more like a bull wanting to buy than a growling bear. (www.ttheory.com/observations.php) He's done flips like this in the past when the T-theory projections of doom or boom ran into the ditch. I've been reading his work since the 1980's and seen these kind of T-theory train wrecks before. It's a bit like Elliott Wave theory in that it works best with hind sight. Lots of guru's calling for a top in this time frame. It will be interesting to see if their crystal balls are cracked too. Mean while the trend and a chandelier stop are my best friends.
He hasn't drawn a new 'T' yet because the Money Flow Index hasn't bottomed yet.
He is basing his positive on stocks based upon a proprietary tool he didn't elaborate upon.
Like a lot of gurus he has several tools he point to at different times:
'T' theory
Ringing cycles
Confidence indicator
proprietary tools
http://stockcharts.c...t?obj=ID4511625
It looks as if the last Ringing cycle - low? - really didn't happen to me. It will be interesting to hear the explanation in a couple of months from now.
So, in guru speak - if the proprietary tool is correct - 'T' Theory was late to the party.
if the proprietary tool is not correct - 'T' Theory kept us cautious and from going full into stocks.
I think there are some good ideas - like the confidence indicator. Also, like many ideas 'T' Theory is probably better in the long term rather than the short term.
'T' theory does give time projections. But, like many advisers, Terry does not give a range for the up or down in stocks he is anticipating but uses superlatives. This isn't a good idea because it doesn't manage people's expectations.
17_16
#4
Posted 28 January 2012 - 11:19 AM
#5
Posted 28 January 2012 - 12:21 PM
Edited by NAV, 28 January 2012 - 12:24 PM.
#6
Posted 28 January 2012 - 12:27 PM
#7
Posted 28 January 2012 - 01:31 PM
why investor don't have much confidence (index), yet have not sold equities.
Don't know about others, but in my case, only yields I can find are next to zero everywhere, including CD's,
money markets, Treasuries under 5 year maturity. So equities is the only hope for some decent returns.
#8
Posted 28 January 2012 - 03:55 PM
Don't know about others, but in my case, only yields I can find are next to zero everywhere, including CD's,
money markets, Treasuries under 5 year maturity. So equities is the only hope for some decent returns.
Looking at the two charts below, the advance/decline data of late for high yield, and the new 52 wk high list on the NYSE
which is loaded with ETF's and CEF's reflecting investors reaching for yield/risk, the train left a long time ago without Terry.
Best,
Tom
http://stockcharts.c...5214&r=9268.png
#9
Posted 28 January 2012 - 04:16 PM
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX:JNK&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p92747327447&r=8294.png
#10
Posted 28 January 2012 - 07:19 PM
T theory has failed and Terry Laundry neither accepts it nor does he have any explanation for it. According to the time symmetry based on the A/D line, we should have topped in Aug 2010 according to Terry. It's 2012 now. And the A/D line continues to make new ATH. How would you explain the extension of the T, 18 months beyond when the fat lady should have sung ? I am pretty much convinced now that any theory that attempts to put a limit on price either in time or amplitude is doomed to failure. You can blame it on Fed, manipulation, extraordinary monetary conditions etc. But i doubt nature would contain the crowd to stop buying/selling on a certain date/time or at some fibonacci numbers or produce crowd behavior in a way as to produce time symmetries.
Just follow the price
My understanding is that he uses the McC OSC
http://www.mcoscilla...t_breadth_data/
T 10 expired and he is waiting for the McC OSC to turn up to form the bottom of a new T
http://ttheoryforum....all20120127.pdf
17_16