Jump to content



Photo

NYSE McClellan Oscillator


  • Please log in to reply
12 replies to this topic

#1 Dex

Dex

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,825 posts

Posted 16 February 2012 - 07:05 PM

I'm watching the NYSE McClellan Oscillator because of 'T' Theory.

http://www.mcoscilla...t_breadth_data/

Putting aside 'T' Theory.

I thought the oscillator would have been higher.

Can anyone give me some insight about it and what it is telling us?
"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
17_16


#2 IYB

IYB

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 7,110 posts

Posted 16 February 2012 - 07:57 PM

Can anyone give me some insight about it and what it is telling us?

In simplest terms, at the moment it is saying nothing more or less than "short term correction in an Intermediate Term advance." This chart from late 2010/early 2011 shows a couple of examples of similar behavior to now:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2010-11-01&en=2011-03-01&i=t77131812468&a=247108652&r=6211.png

Same thing here:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p75489082224&a=225436412&r=134.png

Hope that helps. NYMO/NYSI/NAMO/NASI offer, in this traders humble opinion, the most powerful information a trader can possibly acquire, from any source. Period. And it's readily available to all.... Regards, D

Edited by IYB, 16 February 2012 - 07:58 PM.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#3 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 23,773 posts

Posted 16 February 2012 - 08:30 PM

Terry Laundry has a Volume Oscillator which I think has a proprietary formula.
However one of the forum posters offered a very close simulation and Parker tweaked it.
The MACD of NYUD is the "clone" and it shows the quandary T-Theorists have been in.
It shows no big pullback followed by a breakout.
A breakout would indicate the mid-point of a new T.
I opine that it is reflective of a low volume, FED contrived market.
But if Aristotle's "A equals A" then "It is what It is."
(And if Aristotle was still here, he would be short the Dracma.) :lol:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUD&p=D&b=3&g=0&i=p47285196321&a=256206610&r=940.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 February 2012 - 08:31 PM.


#4 thespookyone

thespookyone

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,043 posts

Posted 16 February 2012 - 09:28 PM

Well, first of all, IYB is right (as usual). Beyond that the most helpfull thing I can say is an old truism-"a little knowledge is a dangerous thing". Looking at the MCO stand alone may mislead you pretty well. The true value of the MCO is realized when you are able to look at it in proper context. That context should include, but not be limited to:level of the summation reading, level of the 5 and 10 percent indexes, and if they currently have a positive or negative cross, their position relaticve to their own zero line-and much more. The world of internal market mechanics is full of slight nuance, which when properly understood and applied-one can gain a great look into the future, and make trades with more confidence. I have studied internal mechanics as a student of Fibs for many years-and have found it invaluable. IMHO, Fib is the finest internal mechanics man on this planet-bar none. You can take the plunge at Technical Watch for a month for $50, and I highly recommend it. I never recieve a nickle for my recommendation of Technical watch, and am quite pleased to pay my $50 a month, like everyone else. It has come back to me MANY fold. Good trading to you.

Edited by thespookyone, 16 February 2012 - 09:29 PM.


#5 voltaire

voltaire

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,134 posts

Posted 17 February 2012 - 04:22 AM

What about this McClellan signal?

Posted Image

#6 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,402 posts

Posted 17 February 2012 - 06:47 AM

Voltaire I concur, the credit indices always lead the stock market, but the market breadth helps you fine tune the entries and exits. I look at the cycles within breadth and it appears to me one of the strongest technical timing tools as well after years of experimenting with various techniques...

#7 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,402 posts

Posted 17 February 2012 - 07:02 AM

BTW, COT correlation looks pretty bullish on your chart, it looks like we have a consolidation until the nominal 40 wk cycle low due in late May or early June. If the bears cannot pull a good sell off into the cycle low due in March, probably we have another higher high coming up into April.

#8 jjc

jjc

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,840 posts

Posted 17 February 2012 - 09:08 AM

BTW, COT correlation looks pretty bullish on your chart, it looks like we have a consolidation until the nominal 40 wk cycle low due in late May or early June. If the bears cannot pull a good sell off into the cycle low due in March, probably we have another higher high coming up into April.




I think you need to look closer there arb. That cot data has a 52 week lead. All I can do is scratch my head and ask myself why it works! It has a history of correlation (with the lead) beyond what that chart has shown.

#9 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,402 posts

Posted 17 February 2012 - 10:22 AM

BTW, COT correlation looks pretty bullish on your chart, it looks like we have a consolidation until the nominal 40 wk cycle low due in late May or early June. If the bears cannot pull a good sell off into the cycle low due in March, probably we have another higher high coming up into April.




I think you need to look closer there arb. That cot data has a 52 week lead. All I can do is scratch my head and ask myself why it works! It has a history of correlation (with the lead) beyond what that chart has shown.



Yes, I am looking and I am seeing 10% credit growth that is leading the stock market. The liquidity leads the stocks. This is exactly what I said, a consolidation into summer and then up, up and away. In fact, if we don't see a clear break into the cycle low into March (64-68 tdays), the chances are there will be an higher high into April from the cycle 64-68 day low. I posted earlier the analysis about the 64-68 trading day cycle. There are too many issues following this cycle, probably we will get some sort of a sell off. The intensity of it will be probably mild given the amount of credit made available...

#10 thespookyone

thespookyone

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,043 posts

Posted 17 February 2012 - 11:44 AM

What about this McClellan signal?

Posted Image


His assumption about when the QE money hits the market is flawed. As for the rest, twt.