22 replies to this topic

[iloli way]

Karen, options osc on buy; news, divergences and
overboughts are being trumped by liquidity, as in the reign of QE-II.

Read this.

The difficulty as always is trying to forecast the reaction of the markets. Given the rally we have seen from mid-December, it is certain that much of the impact of LTRO has already been priced in. In the near term, it would take a very large LTRO operation to significantly move the market higher, while a package on the order of the EUR 300-500 billion currently expected would probably disappoint.

We should keep in mind that in the case of QE II the market did in fact "buy the rumor and sell the fact," with a long rally from August 2010 into that November when QE II was initiated, followed by a correction of about 4% immediately afterwards. Over the three months that ensued, however, the S&P began a second leg, rising nearly 15% more. Despite the numerous headwinds out there, bears need to be nimble, and ready for the possibility of higher highs. Bulls have the wind at their backs, though this market is too rich for my blood.

Said all that in this chart 3x weeks ago. Will it play this time? Who knows. Jack be nimble, Bear be quick.

[Dex]

...

Why those boxes? What are they?

[claire]

Are you expecting another box up to much higher highs? It's not clear to me what you're saying. Thanks for any clarification.

[iloli way]

Comprehension is one hardest test within the TOEFL tests I took when I was applying for US colleges from Taiwan decades ago. Do they still test that today? I have no ideas.

From left to right, low to high, label those 3 boxes in mind as box1, 2, and 3.

For box 1:

We should keep in mind that in the case of QE II the market did in fact "buy the rumor and sell the fact," with a long rally from August 2010 into that November when QE II was initiated,...

Between box 1 and 2:

followed by a correction of about 4% immediately afterwards.

Box 2:

Over the three months that ensued, however, the S&P began a second leg, rising nearly 15% more.

Box 3: Repeat of Box 1, and I think we are about to end it and "followed by a correction of about n%..." :

Despite the numerous headwinds out there, bears need to be nimble, and ready for the possibility of higher highs.

Box 4: I see no stinkin box, do you???

Said all that in this chart 3x weeks ago. Will it play this time? Who knows.

[iloli way]

Maybe needless to say, but this is about Box 3 too, just in case:

Given the rally we have seen from mid-December, it is certain that much of the impact of LTRO has already been priced in. In the near term, it would take a very large LTRO operation to significantly move the market higher, while a package on the order of the EUR 300-500 billion currently expected would probably disappoint.

[Dex]

Comprehension is one hardest test within the TOEFL tests I took when I was applying for US colleges from Taiwan decades ago. Do they still test that today? I have no ideas.

I've always had difficulty with spelling - no spell check computers, no computers and manual - so I majored in finance and accounting.

My comprehension skills are pretty good. Sometimes the test itself is the problem.

From left to right, low to high, label those 3 boxes in mind as box1, 2, and 3.

For box 1:

We should keep in mind that in the case of QE II the market did in fact "buy the rumor and sell the fact," with a long rally from August 2010 into that November when QE II was initiated,...

Between box 1 and 2:

followed by a correction of about 4% immediately afterwards.

Box 2:

Over the three months that ensued, however, the S&P began a second leg, rising nearly 15% more.

Box 3: Repeat of Box 1, and I think we are about to end it and "followed by a correction of about n%..." :

Despite the numerous headwinds out there, bears need to be nimble, and ready for the possibility of higher highs.

Box 4: I see no stinkin box, do you???

Said all that in this chart 3x weeks ago. Will it play this time? Who knows.

Since Dow level on that chart it has gone up 2.66%. It has had a good run from Dec. so, if it goes down some from here.

I don't see what you are posting is any different from what others have been saying - "We Are SOOOOOO Due a Pull-Back"

[iloli way]

I don't see what you are posting is any different from what others have been saying - "We Are SOOOOOO Due a Pull-Back"

Dex,

Did you ask "Why those boxes? What are they?" ?

My answer to you 3 weeks ago was: "snort1, snort2 / repeat..."; apparently you did not get it last time, now... did I answer accordingly this time? Even thou I just rearranged the same contents of my first posting to selecto, hope you got it this time.

OK, now, why should my posting be any "different" from others, since we're all posting under the SAME TOPIC ? Am I getting special treatment if my posting is expected to be different? Hmmm...

But wait, I just might be able to change your mind, since you had not comprehended so far with your pretty good skills, so don't high-hope my trying with my not-better none-expertise.

The differences:

1.) Others have not posted a chart like mine, Duh~.

2.) No others have said, unless I missed, in my word that 'box 3' is repeating 'box 1', therefore the next 'pull-back' is like repeating what's 'between box 1 and 2'.

3.) My chart was made '3 WEEKS AGO', but I am using last two paragraphs of TODAY'S article (selecto link) to speak for my 3-week old chart - WORD FOR WORD! Now tell me who had done that?!

Of course now after 3 weeks, my box 3 looks even more like box 1 now, if I draw new with expanded price/time/space. You don't have to find that ironic and unique, or 'different'; but since you asked, so I responded.

I am goin back to work on my blog now.

[dasein]

PS: It is reported that Russia, China and Japan have been big sellers of US Treasury debt.
I have to believe that the players are getting their mits on some of the proceeds.

thanks for all three posts selecto - the above is one factoid I am not sure is quantified right with just the word "big" i think it may be smaller than what we usually think of with big - but glad you too are seeing potential in grains, and thanks for your tipping number.

[Dex]

As you said you had a hard time with comprehension.

Comprehension is one hardest test within the TOEFL tests I took when I was applying for US colleges from Taiwan decades ago. Do they still test that today? I have no ideas.

Let me help you out - the problem is with how you wrote the comprehension test.

My comprehension skills are pretty good. Sometimes the test itself is the problem.

As you said

I don't see what you are posting is any different from what others have been saying - "We Are SOOOOOO Due a Pull-Back"

Dex,

Did you ask "Why those boxes? What are they?" ?

My answer to you 3 weeks ago was: "snort1, snort2 / repeat..."; apparently you did not get it last time, now... did I answer accordingly this time? Even thou I just rearranged the same contents of my first posting to selecto, hope you got it this time.

Do you seriously think people remember that post or are going to search for it?

OK, now, why should my posting be any "different" from others, since we're all posting under the SAME TOPIC ? Am I getting special treatment if my posting is expected to be different? Hmmm...

But wait, I just might be able to change your mind, since you had not comprehended so far with your pretty good skills, so don't high-hope my trying with my not-better none-expertise.

The differences:

1.) Others have not posted a chart like mine, Duh~.

2.) No others have said, unless I missed, in my word that 'box 3' is repeating 'box 1', therefore the next 'pull-back' is like repeating what's 'between box 1 and 2'.

3.) My chart was made '3 WEEKS AGO', but I am using last two paragraphs of TODAY'S article (selecto link) to speak for my 3-week old chart - WORD FOR WORD! Now tell me who had done that?!

Of course now after 3 weeks, my box 3 looks even more like box 1 now, if I draw new with expanded price/time/space. You don't have to find that ironic and unique, or 'different'; but since you asked, so I responded.

I am goin back to work on my blog now.

The only important item to discuss is #2 - Who cares what others have done?

Between box 1 and 2:

followed by a correction of about 4% immediately afterwards.

Box 2:

Over the three months that ensued, however, the S&P began a second leg, rising nearly 15% more.

Box 3: Repeat of Box 1, and I think we are about to end it and "followed by a correction of about n%..." :

Despite the numerous headwinds out there, bears need to be nimble, and ready for the possibility of higher highs.

Box 4: I see no stinkin box, do you???

Said all that in this chart 3x weeks ago. Will it play this time? Who knows.

Since Dow level on that chart it has gone up 2.66%. It has had a good run from Dec. so, if it goes down some from here.

I don't see what you are posting is any different from what others have been saying - "We Are SOOOOOO Due a Pull-Back"

So, you wrote a lot but really didn't say much.

I the Dow declines from your 3 week ago post - it will be down apx 1.5%, unless you are saying it will go down 4% as it did between your boxes 1 & 2. "Will it play this time? Who knows."

Summing up - long on words, short on substance - not much or difficult to comprehend.

Edited by Dex, 19 February 2012 - 11:26 AM.

[iloli way]

You know what, I totally agree with you this time. I had the same thoughts when I typed up the 'answer', that it was going waste big time. Felt like feeding pearl to swine at the time. It's not the first time fooled by stupid question, but it'll be the last time. Thank you for teaching me that lesson, pal. I'll keep my faith in humanity still.