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OUT OF SYNCH


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#1 TechMan

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 09:19 AM

EU ended week 2 of an on-going correction. There's no strength from EU, as some had speculated last week, and technical patterns indicate probable further downside. It's also probable that we may see gap-down early next week.

In Asia, Shanghai had just concluded the month of March with a 7% correction. While China looks oversold, there's no sign of reversal. Crashes do happen particularly when the market's oversold. And, after the on-day wonder of poking its head above last summer's post-Fukushima high, Japan had quickly reversed. After more than 20% surge in just 3 months, Nikkei at 10200 appears to be too much to overcome all at once.

Back to the Land of The Free… Except for the "Bernanke Pop" on Monday, the SPX continues to close below 3/19/2012 high of 1414. And, many had already noted ubiquitous Head & Shoulders formations on the hourly RUT, SOX, SPX, WLSH, etc..

Right now, the world's major markets are out of synch. It's perhaps time for synchronization. I'd like to see a wave of selling starting from Asia to Europe overnight and turns into a tsunami by the time we open.

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#2 TechMan

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 09:49 AM

Apple "Turnover" will mark the beginning of phase 2.

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On its way while we wait.

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#3 TechMan

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 10:33 AM

Oops... Should've been "SYNC" but the auto correct didn't kick in. I guess "SYNCH" will do. Actually, I was thinking more of Carl Jung's "Synchronicity" this morning than Synchronization. When the unexpected expects you...

#4 Islander

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 10:48 AM

Your suggestion that AAPL could be a trigger for a correction is apt, since it is out on a limb. I moved to cash Friday, keeping only a small position. But the US melt could still be a still be a move with legs. The LTRO in the EU has been providing liquidity that is leaking over into US listed stocks. The DAX, CAC and Shanghai show buyers are dubious of their respective markets, and that they probably prefer the Amercian ETFs ( with stops). This is the source of the relentless buying pressure behind the slow grind up. My Bloomburg shows that institutional buying is nil historically, and the hedges are licking their wounds. B Beranake is posed and high on his list is more bonds and maybe MBS. The market is looking for more stimulus and feels that there is at least a 50% probability the Fed will keep the pedal to the metal until fall. Equities are still the best safety play open. Later in 2012 things look less sanguine. Best, Islander

Edited by Islander, 01 April 2012 - 10:52 AM.


#5 TechMan

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 11:35 AM

Islander - I agree with your longer term thesis, as you've so "aptly" pointed out that a QEs driven market that's been in motion tends to stay in motion. However, an imminent technical correction seems inevitable. And, since every reversal has to start from the VST basis, we'll take it one step at a time. Regards.

#6 jjc

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 02:04 PM

I was thinking sinc(s) [frequency domain].

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Edited by jjc, 01 April 2012 - 02:08 PM.


#7 jjc

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 02:25 PM

Techman I think you are spot on when you state "things are out of synch"; that goes for the major US indicies as well. The NDX and RUT have appeared to peak and are well on there way to an April Low, While the DJI and SPX have some work to do a wee bit north. SPX should peak out early this week (monday?), DJI will linger. The interesting thing I see happening is the NDX (and more specificly AAPL) should bottom out just about as the DJI has peaked with money coming out of the Long end of the Treasury to fund the levetation.

#8 jjc

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 03:12 PM

Techman I think you are spot on when you state "things are out of synch"; that goes for the major US indicies as well. The NDX and RUT have appeared to peak and are well on there way to an April Low, While the DJI and SPX have some work to do a wee bit north. SPX should peak out early this week (monday?), DJI will linger.

The interesting thing I see happening is the NDX (and more specificly AAPL) should bottom out just about as the DJI has peaked with money coming out of the Long end of the Treasury to fund the levetation.


their, there,... patato, patatoe... or is it patatow?

#9 CRUISENAL

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 03:42 PM

http://www.amateur-i...Mar_31_2012.htm


Interesting analysis!




EU ended week 2 of an on-going correction. There's no strength from EU, as some had speculated last week, and technical patterns indicate probable further downside. It's also probable that we may see gap-down early next week.

In Asia, Shanghai had just concluded the month of March with a 7% correction. While China looks oversold, there's no sign of reversal. Crashes do happen particularly when the market's oversold. And, after the on-day wonder of poking its head above last summer's post-Fukushima high, Japan had quickly reversed. After more than 20% surge in just 3 months, Nikkei at 10200 appears to be too much to overcome all at once.

Back to the Land of The Free… Except for the "Bernanke Pop" on Monday, the SPX continues to close below 3/19/2012 high of 1414. And, many had already noted ubiquitous Head & Shoulders formations on the hourly RUT, SOX, SPX, WLSH, etc..

Right now, the world's major markets are out of synch. It's perhaps time for synchronization. I'd like to see a wave of selling starting from Asia to Europe overnight and turns into a tsunami by the time we open.

Posted Image



#10 TechMan

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Posted 01 April 2012 - 03:59 PM

I was thinking sinc(s) [frequency domain].

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Hmmm… Now I'm thinking about a sink.


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