305 replies to this topic

[dougie]

Semi: what might account for the massive increase in volume in the miners since mid 08?
Lots of issues, not the seniors typically though, have seen astronomical increased in daily trading volume. Look at charts of ngd, kgc, baa for example,

i am finally seeing some towel throwing
calls for sub 1200 gold
foreswearing ever investing again in miners
(that last one seems like a sound idea IMO, Twain was right)

The handwriting has been on the wall for some time...

(Posted on 04/05/12)

[dougie]

http://www.rollingst...elling-20120515
Naked short selling by GS in plain sight
wonder if that explains the miners

[SemiBizz]

what might account for the massive increase in volume in the miners since mid 08?
Lots of issues, not the seniors typically though, have seen astronomical increased in daily trading volume. Look at charts of ngd, kgc, baa for example

I guess it's a typical cycle, when I bought HL for 85 cts in 2001, the monthly volume was around 10M, now it's between 100-300M per month. It's like anything else, when I bought my first computer in the early 80s very few people had one, now everyone does. Some of us are early adapter pioneers and some follow the crowd.

And now gold miners is a crowded trade, but the problem here is that a lot of the "investors" bought in on that bigger volume at inflated prices and don't understand that miners are a trade, not a buy and hold forever. They will have to be washed out of the market.

I"ll be buying miners myself relatively soon, but I don't think the believers are done getting washed out. I have seen them come in and buy these dips only to see the XAU tank further every time.

I'm waiting for new lows to come on strong volume, then watch for a retest on no volume when all the "enthusiasts" have given up on gold miners, then I can buy... but when they rush in and buy the dips like this it only sets up another chance for the major holders to dump more stock on them, and they won't quit until the dipsters go away.

I can't buy miners until the gold bigots and worshippers are out of the market. There are hundreds of ads on TV to buy gold every day, seems like on every channel. Just too many uneducated "investors" who don't understand that there is always a HUGE RETRACEMENT coming in this trade.

[dougie]

rydex levels and many other sentiment surveys however show extreme pessimism. I agree it can always get more extreme

[Ken]

Perhaps gold, silver and the mining stocks can fall even further in the next few months but surely a bounce of significance is due soon. Right? I find it interesting that silver has again done a complete 50% Fibonacci retracement off the high of $49.82 in 2011 to the low of $4.01 in 2001. Is silver going to do a complete 61.8% Fibonacci retracement? If so that means silver would fall all the way down to $21.50. In any event I know markets can remain oversold for weeks even months but the indicator readings are getting ridiculous at this point. Gold has a 9 week RSI reading as of the close of Wed, May 16th of 29.08. This is the second lowest 9 week RSI reading for gold since this bull market began in 2001. The lowest 9 week RSI reading was 27.18 on August 15, 2008. Of course, gold didn't bottom then for about another 10 weeks. Geez, I really hope that doesn't happen again right now! It's also the 20th week of the primary cycle for both gold (15 to 21 weeks) and silver (13 to 21 weeks). A primary cycle is due this week or next. With May 15th give or take 4 trading days I'd expect a sudden reversal soon - hopefully. I don't think I can take much more downside. I'm getting really depressed watching my portfolio dramatically shrink with each passing day. At this rate in a few weeks time silver will be free while the S&P 500, of course, will still be hanging above 1300. Venus has turned retrograde on May 15th. Venus represents money and currencies. According to Raymond Merriman, this planetary event can pertain to changes in central bank monetary policies. Hints of QE3??

[dougie]

the local bottom is in or willbe by monday I think then we go north for a few weeks