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are we approaching recognition?!


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#41 tradermama

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 06:06 AM

Hi Ken, I just saw your post after I posted mine. Thanks for your update. 34.50 would be a buy signal for silver on Dorsey's pnf. I guess it is 65% of the time with Mercury in Saggi..not 60%..alll the better :D TM

Edited by tradermama, 04 April 2012 - 06:08 AM.


#42 dharma

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 09:40 AM

thanks ken for your updated thoughts, you too traderama i chart the 15 week cycle lows, this is week 14 , in a few cases , the cycle has shortened, december and september lows come to mind. mercury ends retrograde today, we started falling hard yesterday afternoon, after the burnack spoke. the trickster, merc , is going direct. sinclair yesterday said the broker dealers of the bullion banks, not the buillion banks, are covering their shorts. silver did not make lower lows today, gold did. gld has hourly divergences, so does gdxj- gdx and hui do not. is it time for the juniors to lead?? as long as the dec lows hold , we will be making a higher low here. finishing off a wave 2. yes, i got the last bottom wrong, but the set up is for a large move up! of course we shall see sure the fed said qe is off the table for now. this crises is not about qe its about sovereign debt and that is very much on the table. as sinclair says qe to infinity. its why i am an investor , not a trader. watching for clues. dont be fooled we are in a bull market. sure the powers that be want their fiats strong. however, the temptation and necessity of printing is apparent. what recovery? dharma

#43 Ken

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 09:46 AM

My comments above are still valid and I'm still holding my double leveraged silver ETF at a loss. Watching this sell-off is a little encouraging........so far. Gold this morning has broken the March 22nd lows but silver has not. Gold traded as low as 1627.50 on March 22nd but this morning, according to Kitco, gold traded as low as 1616.50. However, silver traded as low as 31.09 on March 22nd but so far as of this morning silver has traded as low as 31.29. If silver does not break the March 22nd low of 31.09 then there's a case of intermarket bullish divergence on a Raymond Merriman critical reversal date (April 4th). This is a buy signal. In addition, as mentioned above this is the 14th week of the primary cycle for both gold and silver. Primary cycles for gold are typically 15 to 21 weeks. If the primary cycle low for gold is this week (the 14th week) then that's also bullish. Contracted primary cycles for precious metals are usually bullish. 31.50 seems to be strong support for silver. Now it's wait and see. Ken

#44 Ken

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 09:56 AM

Hi dharma, It looks like I was in the middle of writing my message just as you posted yours. It seems we are on the same wave length. There's something else I'm looking at that is a little encouraging. I like to use the 18 day CCI for silver and whenever it gets below -200 that's a buy. In fact, when the CCI (18) reaches below -200 silver will typically reverse by 10% or more within 4 trading days although sometimes it can take as many as 7. I can't get the CCI (18) for $SILVER at Stockcharts but looking at SLV which is down 3.98% the CCI (18) is -116.15. Silver is down 4.3% according to Kitco so the CCI (18) for silver really must be fast approaching -200. Sometimes the CCI (18) doesn't have to get all the way down to -200 either for a large reversal to occur.

#45 Ken

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 10:13 AM

Another observation a bottom may be close at hand for gold and silver. I like to look at the 9 week RSI for gold. Using GLD as a proxy for gold and in real time I saw on the weekly chart the RSI (9) hit 37.30 today. Since this bull market started in 2001 there have been only a handful of times that gold has had a weekly RSI (9) reading of 37 or lower and they were all buys. In fact, since 2001 gold has only traded below 37 on the weekly RSI (9) three times - March 2003, early May 2004 and the in the fall of 2008.

#46 dougie

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 11:11 AM

loos like recognition was an approaching train ouch ouch ouch

#47 johngeorge

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 12:55 PM

loos like recognition was an approaching train
ouch ouch ouch


Very apropos dougie. I feel the pain. But.................remain optimistic. Looking for a rally soon and I think, as Senor BS pointed out recently, 1800 gold could be hit. Seasonally strong period for gold. We could also see gold retest the December lows during the summer. Will see.
Peace
johngeorge

#48 stubaby

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 01:05 PM

loos like recognition was an approaching train
ouch ouch ouch



dougie:

This is the "puke-fest" that ends long correctives - "be happy", however it will take time here to "hammer out a bottom":

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p06969611592&a=259871928&r=986.png


stubaby

#49 dharma

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 01:52 PM

miners experiencing capitulation. it has not been a smooth ride over the course of this bull market. of course i dont like it, but what is my choice. we are close here. i still believe the dec lows were a major bottom. 1620 and 1603 are the immediate #s i am watching we all do our own work and live and die by it dharma

#50 senorBS

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Posted 04 April 2012 - 02:28 PM

miners experiencing capitulation.
it has not been a smooth ride over the course of this bull market.
of course i dont like it, but what is my choice.
we are close here. i still believe the dec lows were a major bottom.
1620 and 1603 are the immediate #s i am watching
we all do our own work and live and die by it
dharma


I am observing very closely, a rally back above 1642 and I get a little positive, a decline below 1595 and no thanks. I have gotten burned too many times buyin the miners too early and would rather await a bueno bullish looking reversal.

PURE BS

Senor