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How big the bounce?


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#31 NAV

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 11:36 AM

My comments have to do with the clarity of what you posted. You gave a price where you said a signal would occur. BUT, you also gave a condition that you did not take these signals unless a retrace occurred, and unless that retrace failed. Do you call that clear??? No, I don't expect you to divulge your secret trading information. I don't know how you resolve this for yourself. You don't want to post your trades...that's fine with me. You don't want to divulge how you would make a trade if you made it...that's fine with me too. But then don't be surprised when people are confused. When you only give signals, and then condition the signal, it's hard to say whether the signal worked or not, and not too surprisingly, some of the signals have not worked at all. That's OK too, I just would like to see clarity.


IT,


Break of 1386 will change the hourly trend to down.


What part of that did you not understand ?

Once a trend turn happens, i wait for the first retrace and failure to enter. Typically retracement failures on SPX hourly gives a stop of 5-10 points. With the current levels of volatility most trades on hourly can be managed with a 5-6 point stop.


Now what part of that did you not understand ? If you want the specific details on entry/exit i cannot divulge that, which has already been stated. If it's confusing, then i will avoid posting such stuff again. Why waste my time and other's time.

and neither of which did you post at the time. I didn't think you had sold either, at least based on what you had said


So based on that logic, i don't think you trade at all, since you never post any trades !

I done with this nonsense. Goodbye !

Edited by NAV, 11 April 2012 - 11:38 AM.

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#32 alexthered

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 11:47 AM

I'm sorry to have started this. I only asked the question because you said forget trying to pick the top, just follow the "King" (price). I am just trying to learn. Appreciate your contributions to the board.

#33 fib_1618

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 05:21 PM

Quite an entertaining thread...thanks to all who participated in the discussion.

And for the record...the NYSE breadth MCO gave a sell signal on Thursday 3/29, so breadth does lead price:

2012-03-29 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...let's play it defensively here
2012-03-29 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the bulls come around
2012-03-29 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can always move back in
2012-03-29 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the structures here
2012-03-29 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the lack of effort by the buyers is telling
2012-03-29 17:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too bad
2012-03-29 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but..all good trends must come to an end eventually
2012-03-29 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no rush here to fold
2012-03-29 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bells going off
2012-03-29 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're allowed to rest here
2012-03-29 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be healthy
2012-03-29 17:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2012-03-29 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do have a good old fashioned shake out
2012-03-29 17:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes you wonder what the FED will do about all those QE3 rumors
2012-03-29 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and off we go again

2012-03-29 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...price objectives have been reached
2012-03-29 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now time to say thank you
2012-03-29 17:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully we get one more nice rally out of this over the next day or so to unload


Which we did...I rest my case.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#34 alexthered

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 06:00 PM

Quite an entertaining thread...thanks to all who participated in the discussion.

And for the record...the NYSE breadth MCO gave a sell signal on Thursday 3/29, so breadth does lead price:

2012-03-29 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...let's play it defensively here
2012-03-29 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the bulls come around
2012-03-29 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can always move back in
2012-03-29 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the structures here
2012-03-29 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the lack of effort by the buyers is telling
2012-03-29 17:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too bad
2012-03-29 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but..all good trends must come to an end eventually
2012-03-29 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no rush here to fold
2012-03-29 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bells going off
2012-03-29 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're allowed to rest here
2012-03-29 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be healthy
2012-03-29 17:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2012-03-29 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do have a good old fashioned shake out
2012-03-29 17:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes you wonder what the FED will do about all those QE3 rumors
2012-03-29 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and off we go again

2012-03-29 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...price objectives have been reached
2012-03-29 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now time to say thank you
2012-03-29 17:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully we get one more nice rally out of this over the next day or so to unload


Which we did...I rest my case.

Fib


Well, I hate to be known as the troll on TT, but fib, I am very disappointed. On April 3, you said "Buy. -Fib". That was at 1413. And now you say that you have a sell signal on 3/29. Well, you don't owe us anything but I sure am disappointed.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=618103

Edited by alexthered, 11 April 2012 - 06:01 PM.


#35 fib_1618

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 06:21 PM

Well, I hate to be known as the troll on TT, but fib, I am very disappointed. On April 3, you said "Buy. -Fib". That was at 1413. And now you say that you have a sell signal on 3/29. Well, you don't owe us anything but I sure am disappointed.

All in good context Alex...don't think too bad of me in my attempt to make an irrational post within an irrational thread.

In fact, I'm also sure you saw this wall post on the Technical Watch Facebook page and Tweet that same day:

Just finished today's chat and looks as though we are starting to breakdown now. Are your stops in place...maybe time to bank??

I may be many things, but to my paid subscribers, and those who follow Technical Watch, I am very consistent in my market analysis and take being a technician very seriously.

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 11 April 2012 - 06:24 PM.

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#36 Echo

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Posted 11 April 2012 - 11:55 PM

Well, I hate to be known as the troll on TT, but fib, I am very disappointed. On April 3, you said "Buy. -Fib". That was at 1413. And now you say that you have a sell signal on 3/29. Well, you don't owe us anything but I sure am disappointed.

All in good context Alex...don't think too bad of me in my attempt to make an irrational post within an irrational thread.

In fact, I'm also sure you saw this wall post on the Technical Watch Facebook page and Tweet that same day:

Just finished today's chat and looks as though we are starting to breakdown now. Are your stops in place...maybe time to bank??

I may be many things, but to my paid subscribers, and those who follow Technical Watch, I am very consistent in my market analysis and take being a technician very seriously.

Fib


Fib, as someone who has known you on this board and yours for many years, you would do yourself and others a favor confining your posts to the "rational" threads. That is where you shine and are most helpful. Simply avoiding posting on irrational threads would be my friendly advice. It gets the blood pressure up at least 20-30 points, lol.

If this downtrend is to continue without a substantial retracement, 1375 on SPX will hold it back tomorrow. Not predicting it, but that is where my line in sand is for now based on the cash hourly price chart. At least for the open, that defines the confluence of the DTL, 21ema, and Wed high.

Doc