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Market is accident waiting to happen


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#1 nimblebear

nimblebear

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Posted 18 April 2012 - 05:52 PM

after all the QE fuel, and with the current macroeconomic environment, the following factors lead me to believe this market is ripe for a fairly major pull back. (Caveat would be significantly more QE, but I'm not so convinced that'll happen before year end.) 1. Spain, Portugal, Greece (still), Italy are in serious serious trouble. Bonds are crapping all over the place. 2. China, and India both have reached a point of much slower growth. Maybe as low as 3%. 3. Profits have peaked along with consumer spending for this cycle, and its a larger headwind now, because of strong evidence, spending outpaced debt reduction, and was in part a function of many homeowners previously technically in default, living "rent free" for nearly 3 years now. That goes away this year, and millions more actual foreclosures, putting a major damper on consumer pysche again. 4. Banks keep tightening screws on lending. Slowing purchases of many things, including housing (new or used), coupled with a renewed call by the FEds to close out on more of the technically insolvent banks. 5. Austerity beginning to creep ever so slowly, into American vernacular. 6. Super major indecision on budgets, and corp's waiting to see how taxes fall out (i.e. who will be next Pres., and congress), before deciding how to spend despite major cash hoards. Those "hoards" might not be so major if taxes are dealt with the way every one knows they have to be (i.e. they certainly won't be decreased !) 7. State/local government shrinking revenues, ballooning budgets. Getting hamered from all sides, including lowered property values, fewer homeowners so fewer prop tax rev's, increased strain on expenditures, increased need for repairs (that have been put off for decades), many of which coming to a head, when people are less able to handle tax increases of any kind. 8. Oil - wild card. Maybe nothing new here, but maybe more coming to a head sooner than many might anticipate. :unsure:
OTIS.