173 replies to this topic

[dharma]

as in the dust bowls of the 30s beans, corn, and wheat continue to exhibit higher prices. this is significant and will not be lost on gold. in the 70s the grains went into big bull markets. for now, gold is being pressed. it is unrelenting. my inclination is the lows wont hold. my job is to make money @this and not be a forecaster. i do have some cash which i am waiting to redeploy should that forecast be correct. if not , then i am 90+% long anyway. and yes, the hated miners will go into a big bull phase. traders are programmed for instant gratification, but until the 3rd phase of the bull has its thrust , these things take time, lots of time. its why most take little away from bull markets. this one will be no different. so, i am not talking to most here. just a few that have patience., understanding of markets, and have time to set up their positions. it will not be long now. dharma

[stubaby]

as in the dust bowls of the 30s beans, corn, and wheat continue to exhibit higher prices. this is significant and will not be lost on gold. in the 70s the grains went into big bull markets. for now, gold is being pressed. it is unrelenting. my inclination is the lows wont hold. my job is to make money @this and not be a forecaster. i do have some cash which i am waiting to redeploy should that forecast be correct. if not , then i am 90+% long anyway. and yes, the hated miners will go into a big bull phase. traders are programmed for instant gratification, but until the 3rd phase of the bull has its thrust , these things take time, lots of time. its why most take little away from bull markets. this one will be no different. so, i am not talking to most here. just a few that have patience., understanding of markets, and have time to set up their positions. it will not be long now.
dharma

dharma:

The "thrust up" out of the corrective pattern in the $GKX is intstructive here. On the monthly chart below it is clear:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GKX&p=M&st=1996-01-01&en=2012-12-31&i=p33917830124&a=259871877&r=701.png

On the weekly chart - there was a "total" breakdown of the trendline and the late December lows before the reversal and thrust (not the RSI and MACD divergences):
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GKX&p=W&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&i=p83961722355&a=259871879&r=2062.png

stubaby

[stubaby]

as in the dust bowls of the 30s beans, corn, and wheat continue to exhibit higher prices. this is significant and will not be lost on gold. in the 70s the grains went into big bull markets. for now, gold is being pressed. it is unrelenting. my inclination is the lows wont hold. my job is to make money @this and not be a forecaster. i do have some cash which i am waiting to redeploy should that forecast be correct. if not , then i am 90+% long anyway. and yes, the hated miners will go into a big bull phase. traders are programmed for instant gratification, but until the 3rd phase of the bull has its thrust , these things take time, lots of time. its why most take little away from bull markets. this one will be no different. so, i am not talking to most here. just a few that have patience., understanding of markets, and have time to set up their positions. it will not be long now.
dharma

dharma:

The "thrust up" out of the corrective pattern in the $GKX is intstructive here. On the monthly chart below it is clear:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GKX&p=M&st=1996-01-01&en=2012-12-31&i=p33917830124&a=259871877&r=701.png

On the weekly chart - there was a "total" breakdown of the trendline and the late December lows before the reversal and thrust (note the RSI and MACD divergences):
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GKX&p=W&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&i=p83961722355&a=259871879&r=2062.png

stubaby

Gold still holding at 23.6% FIB level - showing relative strength:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=M&st=1996-01-01&en=2012-12-31&i=p71184594845&a=259871923&r=339.png

On the weekly chart - looks like we are setting up for the initial low here near-term, with strong up move and then retest (to produce divergences simular to GKX) - whether the divergences come with lower prices is the question - given Gold's overall relative strength I think not:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&i=p66086934779&a=271447019&r=1341848355877.png

stubaby

[dharma]

just a word here. the fed was instituted in 1913 nixon closed the gold window in 1972. banksters dont play the game for instant gratification. traders horizons are quite different than banksters horizons. guys like jim rogers who become billionaires @ this game. dont set their horizons on the minute. rogers has been advocating food stuffs for more than a decade now are proving to be correct. big money can wait. the small players cannot. i subscribed to richard russell , after meeting him in 78. he did a piece entitled rich man poor man. i think he has it posted on his site. its well worth the read , it puts things in perspective. my point of this post and my last one is if you play the big trend then that is one perspective. if you are a day trader that is another perspective. the nature of this game will be changing(phase 3 of the bull) . back when i made a point of studying successful traders in the market. what in their thought process set them apart. what in their thought made them(@that time)millions? a very few had rare technical skills. the rest had a sense of what the trend was, and stuck to it. i read a piece in 99 about the guy who brought csco to ipo. he got out way to early. made some money , but nothing like the multiple % that csco appreciated. instant gratification is not the way. sure as a trader you can make some good money . very very few are good traders. the bull will reassert itself soon. until then . guys will deride billionaires, who made their money in the markets. dharma

[dougie]

Stu: if your labeling is correct there and this is a wave 2 correction of high degree it would seem we would want more time to correct? speaking as a non-elliotician

[stubaby]

Stu: if your labeling is correct there and this is a wave 2 correction of high degree it would seem we would want more time to correct? speaking as a non-elliotician

dougie:

Don't know - was trying to compare to GKX. My "primary" counts for Gold are:

• this is primary Wave 4, with Wave 5 to come (40%)
• this is Wave 2 corrective of primary 5 Wave advance (20%)
• this is Wave 2 of primary Wave 3 (40%)

But, yes if this is Wave 2 corrective of primary 5 Wave advance we could just now be completing Wave A of ABC to continue for another year or so.


stubaby

[dharma]

firstly elliot wave has nothing to do w/time its concern is w/form. structure. i tend to agree w/your 1st conclusion stubaby=wave 4 w/5 to come. i suspect the whole bull is over sooner than most expect. my own feeling is by 2016 it will all be over. trying to pin point the market is a losing strategy. dharma

[johngeorge]

"my point of this post and my last one is if you play the big trend then that is one perspective. if you are a day trader that is another perspective." Yes, the old saying; Time is money. Thanks, dharma.

[dharma]

i dont know if hyperinflation is in the cards. i have been in the stagflation camp. obviously wages are not rising. but the price of food will be rising/is rising. corn,beans and wheat have gone vertical. energy prices appear to be putting in a bottom. @some point this will not be lost on gold. gold has been unable to get near meaningful resistance. which is a clue for me. however, it washed out @the lows. the miners sentiment @the lows was a washout. yes, it has formed a pennant pattern on the daily charts. but the pattern is closer and closer to the apex= little power in the pattern. the sovereign debt crises is continuing to go unabated. and then in the background is this giant derivative tower hovering in the background. sure in 08 there was lehman. they took down lehman, it marked the bottom of the crises. this crises is ongoing. gold could test and break its 1520 lows, i imagine there are a fair amount of stops @and below 1520. i see 2 possibilities here 1. we break the lows and reverse 2 we go lower than folks think and even scare out more gold bugs. i do believe that either way the down move will be short lived. there is support for gold coming from the food sector. the sovereign debt crises is still very much front and center energy prices are putting in a bottom. then again they are able to control and manipulate libor , why not gold/silver???? i think the miners got sold out @the lows. and they may not break those lows. seasonally the weak period is rapidly moving into the rear view mirror, which isnt to say that we could nt have short term weakness. stay alert!! there could very well be another great buy just ahead! stay alert dharma

[stubaby]

i dont know if hyperinflation is in the cards. i have been in the stagflation camp. obviously wages are not rising. but the price of food will be rising/is rising. corn,beans and wheat have gone vertical. energy prices appear to be putting in a bottom. @some point this will not be lost on gold. gold has been unable to get near meaningful resistance. which is a clue for me. however, it washed out @the lows. the miners sentiment @the lows was a washout. yes, it has formed a pennant pattern on the daily charts. but the pattern is closer and closer to the apex= little power in the pattern. the sovereign debt crises is continuing to go unabated. and then in the background is this giant derivative tower hovering in the background. sure in 08 there was lehman. they took down lehman, it marked the bottom of the crises.
this crises is ongoing. gold could test and break its 1520 lows, i imagine there are a fair amount of stops @and below 1520. i see 2 possibilities here
1. we break the lows and reverse
2 we go lower than folks think and even scare out more gold bugs.

i do believe that either way the down move will be short lived.
there is support for gold coming from the food sector.
the sovereign debt crises is still very much front and center
energy prices are putting in a bottom.
then again they are able to control and manipulate libor , why not gold/silver????
i think the miners got sold out @the lows. and they may not break those lows.
seasonally the weak period is rapidly moving into the rear view mirror, which isnt to say that we could nt have short term weakness.
stay alert!! there could very well be another great buy just ahead! stay alert
dharma

dharma:

Close-up of "little" consolidation triangle in play for past month or so:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p36656467421&a=259871919&r=471.png

I "painted in" today's 'bearish engulfing" candle, which would need confirmation with tomorow's action. It appears to me that this would be a perfect point for the breakdown, although the bottom of the triangle (now at 1,555) and the prior ST swing low (at 1,547.60) have yet to be beached. Those are the numbers I will be watching ST. Still less than 'half-way' out in triangle to apex so can't rule out one more move to the top (or even a false break above) before resolution.


stubaby


PS I hate these ST timeframes, but for now looking for an "add point" at the next major swing low