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You Must Be Joking


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#31 TechMan

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Posted 09 August 2012 - 09:29 AM

All rallies are shorted. Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs.


That's not totally fair because that's only half of the story. The other half is that the bulls have also been doing the same thing by blaming the Fed or the ECB for not doing enough when there are major selloffs or crashes. And, we can also throw in excuses like the "Fat Finger" and computer glitches, among other things.

All selloffs are buying opportunities because there's a lot of money on the sideline, stocks are cheap, it's a market of stocks, I'm a long term investor, etc..

And, how many stock market bulls have been calling the demise of T-bills?

Bottom line - There's never just one side of the story. The bulls and the bears are doing pretty much the same things. We only see the half of it due to our bullish or bearish biases.


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Incidentally, aside from our polls here, the broad-based survey such as the Consensus Bullish Index and the Market Vane Bullish Consensus have been climbing and have now reached the same bullish level as April/May.

#32 Om_Namah_Shivay

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Posted 09 August 2012 - 09:31 AM

I believe Mark issues FL/FS signals (fully long-fully short, and I think
he also has a signal based on board activity.


I do and I did and did again today.

Generally, this is Bullish, BUT there's one big caveat. We, i.e. participants in this poll, tend to be positioned correctly at turns. By "tend to" I mean "virtually every time".

I'd not be at all surprised if the market fell 2% off a new high with few long Bulls and lots of short Bears.



NAV---Nice Long post (wanted to post myself somethign same but then I thought let it be...thats nature of market) and very relevant. Just to add its not only in bull market that there is denial but it also happens in bear market. Its just that speed of bear is faster than bull. And I think its perfectly normal to fade this board at extreme sentiment...because if this board is not made up of regular losers its still is made up of lot of wall street losers....trading is easy because it appeals to such base instincts of ours that its difficult to differentiate objective decision from subjective decisions....my past posts can be checked if I m bull or bear or just good trader:)

Edited by Om_Namah_Shivay, 09 August 2012 - 09:33 AM.

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#33 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 09 August 2012 - 01:20 PM

Gotta say this in defense of the bears.


In defense of the bears, more often than not whenever I begin picking on them a bearish reversal is imminent. So I shall zip my lips.


LOL!!!

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