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#11 robo

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 10:30 AM

If we really want to know what investors are thinking on a “real time” basis then we need to look at indicators that reflect investor sentiment within the markets currently. For this type of analysis we can look at market indicators of investor sentiment such as the Volatility Index, AAII Bullish and Bearish sentiment, Market Vane Bullish and Bearish Sentiment, Rate of Change of the S&P 500, and New Highs vs New Lows on the NYSE. While each one of these can give us an indication of current sentiment on their own – I have compiled them into a single index so that we may get a more comprehensive picture of overall bullishness or bearishness in the market.



http://pragcap.com/a...ly-that-bearish


Current position -QID and HDGE....

Tough market!

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“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#12 sluzbenik1

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 10:34 AM

I never vote and I read the forum religiously. I'll try to vote more, but I usually don't have a strong opinion on day-to-day action. For what I do, an opinion on the end-of-day result is totally inconsequential (and I think it should be for anyone doing anything other than day-trading) anyway. I've noticed the board is often right over extremely short-term frames, but often fails to see the bigger picture, even one as small as a daily timeframe. Today everyone was right that we would open down, but it will probably prove incorrect to predict the day would be down... My bias is for consolidation and another stab higher over the next two weeks, btw. As I said in Selecto's post, a top or bottom cannot form without capitulation. By the way, was there news at 11:10 that caused the spike - I haven't seen any. Or was that just short-covering on filling the gap?

#13 Rogerdodger

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 10:40 AM

New Stock Market Highs would make a great political headline.
(Even if was on pathetic, easily manipulated low August volume.) ;)

#14 IndexTrader

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 10:51 AM

If we really want to know what investors are thinking on a “real time” basis then we need to look at indicators that reflect investor sentiment within the markets currently. For this type of analysis we can look at market indicators of investor sentiment such as the Volatility Index, AAII Bullish and Bearish sentiment, Market Vane Bullish and Bearish Sentiment, Rate of Change of the S&P 500, and New Highs vs New Lows on the NYSE. While each one of these can give us an indication of current sentiment on their own – I have compiled them into a single index so that we may get a more comprehensive picture of overall bullishness or bearishness in the market.



http://pragcap.com/a...ly-that-bearish


Current position -QID and HDGE....

Tough market!

Good Trading


I don't view a rate of change indicator or a new highs-new lows index as sentiment indicators. I'd put them more in the camp of momentum type indicators. And market vane and AAII are hardly "real time". As far as I know they're both weekly.

IT

#15 pdx5

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 11:20 AM

May be Mark can make it a requirement to vote before one can read any posts or post? It does not take more than 15 seconds to vote. I am guilty of slacking off also but do vote sometimes.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#16 NAV

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 11:33 AM

Actually I think the sentiment poll has been giving strongly bearish sentiment since the June bottom. Not every day, but a majority of days. And especially the last week or two. Based on that it appears that traders, at least here, have been fading this rally all the way up.

IT


What's new there ? Traders on this board have been fading all rallies since 2003, when i joined this board. No need to watch any sentiment numbers/polls to find out the obvious.

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#17 IndexTrader

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 12:05 PM

Actually I think the sentiment poll has been giving strongly bearish sentiment since the June bottom. Not every day, but a majority of days. And especially the last week or two. Based on that it appears that traders, at least here, have been fading this rally all the way up.

IT


What's new there ? Traders on this board have been fading all rallies since 2003, when i joined this board. No need to watch any sentiment numbers/polls to find out the obvious.


You got a point there. :lol:

#18 ogm

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 01:54 PM

IndexTrader, I don't think sentiment is that outright berarish. On this board maybe at the moment, but ISEE and $CPCE are far from bearish.

#19 dasein

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 04:05 PM

sentiment in AD has been decent, however sentiment in volume is not carrying any kind of stick.
best,
klh

#20 NAV

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 10:03 PM

Message board sentiment has been the same for years. All rallies are shorted. Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs. Even on a technical basis most rallies are either on fumes, breadth not confirming, volume MCO lagging, VIX too low, too much complaceny, overextended/parabolic, divergent, dangerously topping, three peaks and domed house, hindenburg omen, imminent pole flip, dangerous planetary combinations, et al. And when the technicals are too strong, the fundamentals which are in a perpetual gutter, is always there to help. So there is always a reason to suspect any upmove in the markets. That has been the story of this board or any other message board for years. It's too predictable and boring, honestly. The more interesting sentiment read for me these days is the sentiment from the gurus and the professional community. They can have stronger contrarian value. Remember the pole flip scare a couple of years back and the rally that followed. Recall the 4 year cycle top widely accepted by the pros in 2006. Now this year we have the Mayan scare from a sentiment perspective and big monetary pumping/spending (elections in U.S, Europe). That pretty much assures a smooth sailing this year. Just like it occurred in 1999, the Y2k which turned out to be a non-event, and once it passed the real disaster struck in 2000. If the Mayan crises does not pan out this year, we would enter 2013 with the same euphoria (worst is behind us), like we did in 2000. I personally think 2013 will be a disaster. It's not a prediction, but just a gut feeling based on the broad negative sentiment backdrop for this year (combined with favourable monetary policy) and euphoria that is to follow if the market rallies and the Mayan prophecy bites the dust.

Edited by NAV, 08 August 2012 - 10:04 PM.

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