32 replies to this topic

[Gary Smith]

Message board sentiment has been the same for years. All rallies are shorted. Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs. Even on a technical basis most rallies are either on fumes, breadth not confirming, volume MCO lagging, VIX too low, too much complaceny, overextended/parabolic, divergent, dangerously topping, three peaks and domed house, hindenburg omen, imminent pole flip, dangerous planetary combinations, et al. And when the technicals are too strong, the fundamentals which are in a perpetual gutter, is always there to help. So there is always a reason to suspect any upmove in the markets. That has been the story of this board or any other message board for years. It's too predictable and boring, honestly.

Great post and insights. Back in the day I knew a well known doom and gloom guru who told me in reality he was never all that doom and gloom but that doom and gloom is what sold best to the masses so doom and gloom it would be.

Edit: I am reminded of that maxim the bears always like to trot out about it doesn't take genius to make money in a bull market. While I completely concur I have always wondered then what does it take to not make money in a bull market.

Edited by Gary Smith, 08 August 2012 - 10:50 PM.

[ogm]

Message board sentiment has been the same for years. All rallies are shorted. Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs. Even on a technical basis most rallies are either on fumes, breadth not confirming, volume MCO lagging, VIX too low, too much complaceny, overextended/parabolic, divergent, dangerously topping, three peaks and domed house, hindenburg omen, imminent pole flip, dangerous planetary combinations, et al. And when the technicals are too strong, the fundamentals which are in a perpetual gutter, is always there to help. So there is always a reason to suspect any upmove in the markets. That has been the story of this board or any other message board for years. It's too predictable and boring, honestly.

Great post and insights. Back in the day I knew a well known doom and gloom guru who told me in reality he was never all that doom and gloom but that doom and gloom is what sold best to the masses so doom and gloom it would be.

Edit: I am reminded of that maxim the bears always like to trot out about it doesn't take genius to make money in a bull market. While I completely concur I have always wondered then what does it take to not make money in a bull market.

Gotta say this in defense of the bears.

Bears had 2 great runs on this market in 2000-2001 and 2007-2009. I personally made a lot of money in each of them, which I've invested in commercial NNN real estate, instead of fllying pieces of paper, or electronic chaos, or whatever we are trading now. A decision I'm yet to regret.
And believe me I've read my share of excuses during those declines too. Oversold, great valuations, Fed will cut interest rates any day now, Fed will print any day now, Sentiment too negative, etc.

Since 1998 or so the market has been a completely Fed driven rigged game. I think that was the Asian debt crisis, then Y2K, then Nasdaq bubble then real estate bubble then commodities bubble now junk debt bubble. One market /economic distortion after another. You may call it a bull market, or bear market, depending on where the moving averages are crossed at the time and the momentum gambling crowd is betting the [bleeeep] up or down of everything. I call it a mess.

Since 1998 the stock market returns have been non-existant. Just up/down movements. With all that great bull market you are talking about the S&P is trading at almost exactly where it was in 1998 before the Asian debt crisis. 14 years of chaos. Thats a fact.

Edited by ogm, 09 August 2012 - 12:02 AM.

[andr99]

Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs.

Market is never free, nor when it goes up and not either when it goes down. They pump it up on fumes and then sell short it down to hell. The average jim, joe and john don' t even know what short selling is.

I personally think 2013 will be a disaster.

So do I

Edited by andr99, 09 August 2012 - 12:28 AM.

[Gary Smith]

Gotta say this in defense of the bears.

In defense of the bears, more often than not whenever I begin picking on them a bearish reversal is imminent. So I shall zip my lips.

[TechMan]

All rallies are shorted. Rallies are a result of Fed, ECB, QE, POMO, Repo, Twist, Dollar debasement, Goldman. Any temporary down-drafts in the markets are heralded as the return of free markets and vindication of old school TA, only to followed by cries of manipulation when the reversal occurs.

That's not totally fair because that's only half of the story. The other half is that the bulls have also been doing the same thing by blaming the Fed or the ECB for not doing enough when there are major selloffs or crashes. And, we can also throw in excuses like the "Fat Finger" and computer glitches, among other things.

All selloffs are buying opportunities because there's a lot of money on the sideline, stocks are cheap, it's a market of stocks, I'm a long term investor, etc..

And, how many stock market bulls have been calling the demise of T-bills?

Bottom line - There's never just one side of the story. The bulls and the bears are doing pretty much the same things. We only see the half of it due to our bullish or bearish biases.

[mss]

Not all posters here are bears all the time but change with the market.

So what's your read over the next several months?

All four Index's display the same pattern.

We are in a positive, bullish, up trend. The StoRsi is weak, I view it as neutral. The MACD is positive with Higher highs and higher lows.

Current indication is for a very "choppy" up trend. CAUTION is warranted.

I am long with 5% stops.

btw: I do very little based on cycles, but those who do are suggesting a ST top in August.

I also use some other charts for ST tests of the LT trends.

mss

[andr99]

Not all posters here are bears all the time but change with the market.

So what's your read over the next several months?

All four Index's display the same pattern.

We are in a positive, bullish, up trend. The StoRsi is weak, I view it as neutral. The MACD is positive with Higher highs and higher lows.

Current indication is for a very "choppy" up trend. CAUTION is warranted.

I am long with 5% stops.

btw: I do very little based on cycles, but those who do are suggesting a ST top in August.

I also use some other charts for ST tests of the LT trends.

mss

and what's your perspective on the markets for the end of august-mid september ?

[mss]

Not all posters here are bears all the time but change with the market.

So what's your read over the next several months?

All four Index's display the same pattern.

We are in a positive, bullish, up trend. The StoRsi is weak, I view it as neutral. The MACD is positive with Higher highs and higher lows.

Current indication is for a very "choppy" up trend. CAUTION is warranted.

I am long with 5% stops.

btw: I do very little based on cycles, but those who do are suggesting a ST top in August.

I also use some other charts for ST tests of the LT trends.

mss

and what's your perspective on the markets for the end of august-mid september ?

The same as posted till I perceive a change.

SHORT TERM CHARTS HERE

LONG TERM CHARTS HERE

mss

[andr99]

Not all posters here are bears all the time but change with the market.

So what's your read over the next several months?

All four Index's display the same pattern.

We are in a positive, bullish, up trend. The StoRsi is weak, I view it as neutral. The MACD is positive with Higher highs and higher lows.

Current indication is for a very "choppy" up trend. CAUTION is warranted.

I am long with 5% stops.

btw: I do very little based on cycles, but those who do are suggesting a ST top in August.

I also use some other charts for ST tests of the LT trends.

mss

and what's your perspective on the markets for the end of august-mid september ?

The same as posted till I perceive a change.

SHORT TERM CHARTS HERE

LONG TERM CHARTS HERE

mss

thanks

[OEXCHAOS]

I believe Mark issues FL/FS signals (fully long-fully short, and I think
he also has a signal based on board activity.

I do and I did and did again today.

Generally, this is Bullish, BUT there's one big caveat. We, i.e. participants in this poll, tend to be positioned correctly at turns. By "tend to" I mean "virtually every time".

I'd not be at all surprised if the market fell 2% off a new high with few long Bulls and lots of short Bears.