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2012 Drought Economic Impact


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#1 Geomean

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 10:33 AM

Deere trims outlook on drought, weak economy Washington Post Story

Economists Predicting Recession from the drought ABC News 17 link

Creighton University Study Creighton link

Edited by Geomean, 15 August 2012 - 10:34 AM.

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#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 18 August 2012 - 12:32 PM

It sure looks a lot like 1935-36 weatherwise and otherwise. (Maybe 1850 too.)
The great Dust Bowl began with a drought in the late winter/early spring of 1935.
Some say there are 40 year cycles:
Frequency and duration of historical droughts from the 16th to the 19th centuries
"Moreover, the most prominent periodicity of the historical drought time series was that of ∼40 years."
Laundry's theory was that every other one is a deep one.
He was speaking in market/economic terms, but it sure seems like weather is a player too.
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Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 August 2012 - 12:39 PM.


#3 Geomean

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Posted 22 August 2012 - 08:40 AM

Thanks for the chart RD.

The recent closing of the Mississippi is projected to last until October and to have an economic impact of 300 Million per day, which works out to 10 Billion per month, or 30 Billion per quarter. That works out to be about a 1% hit to GDP which won't be obvious until reports in the late fall. http://www.policysho...is-drainin.html

http://lewrockwell.c...-drying-up.html

NOAA records the Mississippi low at Vicksburg was February 2, 1940. http://water.weather...w...&gage=vckm6

Here is the $Dow daily from that period. The 1940 crash occurred about 3 months after the Mississippi river low.

Germany invaded Holland and France on May 10,1940. http://www.drweevil.org/?p=1053 I hope a war doesn't hit too (Israel attack Iran?). A Sept 25 deadline is being mentioned. http://www.indybay.o...21/18719974.php

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Edited by Geomean, 22 August 2012 - 08:41 AM.

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#4 Geomean

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 09:37 AM

Here's an article from Financial Sense that addresses the scope and impact from the low Mississippi . Link
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#5 Rogerdodger

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Posted 23 August 2012 - 08:32 PM

The price of corn is already up because of the drought. Additionally I heard a guy on the radio telling about his barge full of corn... Millions of dollars of corn... Stuck in the Mississippi River. With the sun spot projected peak not coming until next May, it likely ain't over yet.

#6 Geomean

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 09:24 AM

Here's a link from Financial Sense discussing the impact of the drought on US power generation. It is more descriptive of what impact the drought will have and is having and than quantifying the extent.

The author highlights an aspect that is important to understand and does a very nice job of putting together a lot of information from disparate sources.

Richard Mills article on US Power Supply to be Impacted by the Drought
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#7 Rogerdodger

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 08:43 PM

The weather actually produced some very good gardens.
I usually pick tomatoes in mid June with the peak around the 4th of July.
This year I picked the first basket full in mid MAY!
The peak was around August 4th.
Simply amazing.

Farmers eye record profits...
US farmers are heading for their most profitable year on record despite the worst drought in half a century as high grain prices and payouts from a federal crop insurance programme compensate for a smaller harvest.
Net farm income will reach $122.2bn in 2012, the highest-ever nominal profit and the second highest in inflation-adjusted terms after 1973, the US Department of Agriculture said in its first forecast since drought spread across the corn belt.
http://www.ft.com/cm...t#axzz24tYMhLrl

#8 Rogerdodger

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Posted 01 September 2012 - 10:42 AM

Global food prices jump 10% in month!

The World Bank said that the use of corn to produce ethanol biofuel - which represents 40% of US corn production - was also a key factor in the sharp rise in the US maize price.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 September 2012 - 10:43 AM.


#9 Rogerdodger

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 02:20 PM

Now it's serious!
REPORT: Global bacon shortage 'unavoidable'...
The trade group reported Thursday that annual pig production for Europe's main pig producers fell across the board between 2011 and 2012, a trend that "is being mirrored around the world." The group tied the decline to increased feed costs, an effect of poor harvests for corn and soybeans.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 25 September 2012 - 02:21 PM.