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after consolidation, comes mark up


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#1 dharma

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Posted 16 August 2012 - 11:28 AM

we have had a year consolidation in the gold market. the hgnsi is -2.5% market vane iis 60% bulls. very low #s. deflation is biting. it is apparent almost everywhere. is it now time for the risk on trade.? dharma

#2 dharma

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Posted 17 August 2012 - 10:32 AM

i do my own work and right or wrong i follow my work. the large pennant/triangle pattern in gold is a bullish pattern, that is stated in edwards and magee. i keep pointing out that sentiment is quite negative for gold, so lower projections by those who travel w/the herd are to be expected. sure there could be an unforeseen even which takes the gold market down to break the 1520 lows, but that is not what the market to my eyes is indicating. could i be wrong! you betcha. no one in this biz has a perfect or near perfect track record. my short term musings dont mean much to me. i buy when the market is weak and the herd is negative. corrections serve to confuse most. we are in a bull market, w/a consolidation lasting a year now. and all the while the backdrop gets more and more bullish. i have a plan and i am sticking to it. yes i see the deflation, this system has reached its maximum potential. fewer and fewer folks are signing on the dotted line. qe1 and qe2 came and went. and next will be the next monetization. i feel reasonably certain that the lows have been seen , the dec and may lows had all the earmarks of a bottom. we shall see dharma

#3 stubaby

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Posted 17 August 2012 - 12:27 PM

i do my own work and right or wrong i follow my work.
the large pennant/triangle pattern in gold is a bullish pattern, that is stated in edwards and magee. i keep pointing out that sentiment is quite negative for gold, so lower projections by those who travel w/the herd are to be expected. sure there could be an unforeseen even which takes the gold market down to break the 1520 lows, but that is not what the market to my eyes is indicating. could i be wrong! you betcha. no one in this biz has a perfect or near perfect track record. my short term musings dont mean much to me. i buy when the market is weak and the herd is negative. corrections serve to confuse most. we are in a bull market, w/a consolidation lasting a year now. and all the while the backdrop gets more and more bullish. i have a plan and i am sticking to it. yes i see the deflation, this system has reached its maximum potential. fewer and fewer folks are signing on the dotted line. qe1 and qe2 came and went. and next will be the next monetization. i feel reasonably certain that the lows have been seen , the dec and may lows had all the earmarks of a bottom. we shall see
dharma



dharma:

The "price" low was in December and the "momentum" low (re-test) appears to be in May:

Weekly Chart - MACD on 'Buy', but needs to cross the zero line - RSI needs to move above 50 and eventually the 15-Week EMA back above the 65-Week EMA:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=11&dy=0&i=p83448395647&a=183376203&r=1345222717984.png

Busy Chart - Bottom-Line need to see a move towards 1,665 soon or we could fall toward sub-1,500 with divergences vs the May low:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&i=p38221539445&a=259871921&r=2562.png

stubaby B)

#4 johngeorge

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Posted 17 August 2012 - 02:11 PM

From the FWIW department I still believe that gold is tied to the dollar. Strong dollar weak gold. Not saying we can't move higher from here, but, it is one of those levels that causes me to just sit back and observe. As has been pointed out often this is consolidation. I have to see gold move above $1640 and hold there with $30 critical resistance for silver. Meanwhile I run my business and observe the markets and my core holdings at leisure. Watching for an entrance point for NUGT. Thank you dharma and stubaby for all your contributions. :)
Peace
johngeorge

#5 dharma

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Posted 17 August 2012 - 02:43 PM

From the FWIW department I still believe that gold is tied to the dollar. Strong dollar weak gold. Not saying we can't move higher from here, but, it is one of those levels that causes me to just sit back and observe. As has been pointed out often this is consolidation. I have to see gold move above $1640 and hold there with $30 critical resistance for silver. Meanwhile I run my business and observe the markets and my core holdings at leisure. Watching for an entrance point for NUGT.

Thank you dharma and stubaby for all your contributions. :)

jg, just as a reminder , i think it was 06 , the dollar went up and so did gold i understand the relationship, but like everything else in the market. anomalies do occur.
sure seems to me tight small ranges, market building cause
dharma

#6 dharma

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 09:09 AM

the commercials are long the euro,they may be early, but they are not often wrong the gold market continues to consolidate, not tipping its hand . no highs of significance have been taken out. i am looking for mark up. maybe a big bar kickoff. paulson has taken a significant position. of course last time he did that , he suffered redemptions and took a big hit. sure seems to me like the sentiment figures revealed the lows. we shall see. dharma

#7 tradermama

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 10:24 AM

silver finally got a pnf buy!!..to me this is a signal for a launch coming for that Mars in Scorpio..it hasn't seen a buy since June...Aug 23-Oct 5..favorable towards pms TM

#8 stubaby

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 11:14 AM

silver finally got a pnf buy!!..to me this is a signal for a launch coming for that Mars in Scorpio..it hasn't seen a buy since June...Aug 23-Oct 5..favorable towards pms
TM



http://stockcharts.c...71968&r=842.png

Gold:Silver Ratio breaks below 200-Day MA! Last time couldn't 'follow-through' to break below the 50-Day MA, which acted as support.

stubaby B)

#9 tradermama

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 11:31 AM

silver finally got a pnf buy!!..to me this is a signal for a launch coming for that Mars in Scorpio..it hasn't seen a buy since June...Aug 23-Oct 5..favorable towards pms
TM



http://stockcharts.c...71968&r=842.png

Gold:Silver Ratio breaks below 200-Day MA! Last time couldn't 'follow-through' to break below the 50-Day MA, which acted as support.

stubaby B)

don't you mean the other way around?..it broke through the 50?..the 200 ma seems to stop it...am I seeing that wrong?

.I'm looking for a rally into this period..whether it turns out to be something more..I have no idea..this might just last 2-4 weeks..I think we could see silver attack 30 as long as gold starts breaking to the upside and over 1642..a lot of volume came in..and I think the shorts will start getting nervous as this is getting long in the tooth for silver imo..but there's more to this that I'll be watching..the relative strength still weak..on a sell and O..but that would change if silver starts moving..one step at a time..thank's for your chart.
TM

#10 stubaby

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Posted 20 August 2012 - 11:36 AM

silver finally got a pnf buy!!..to me this is a signal for a launch coming for that Mars in Scorpio..it hasn't seen a buy since June...Aug 23-Oct 5..favorable towards pms
TM



http://stockcharts.c...71968&r=842.png

Gold:Silver Ratio breaks below 200-Day MA! Last time couldn't 'follow-through' to break below the 50-Day MA, which acted as support.

stubaby B)

don't you mean the other way around?..it broke through the 50?..the 200 ma seems to stop it...am I seeing that wrong?



YEP