282 replies to this topic

[dharma]

i have no doubt that @some point the silver shorts will be overrun, but for now, i agree w/stubaby gold will lead silver. dharma by the way , i hope you are watching the chart of apple, its very instructive. the parabolic there could be very similar to the one gold forms down the road

Edited by dharma, 20 August 2012 - 01:57 PM.

[tradermama]

i have no doubt that @some point the silver shorts will be overrun, but for now, i agree w/stubaby gold will lead silver.
dharma

by the way , i hope you are watching the chart of apple, its very instructive. the parabolic there could be very similar to the one gold forms down the road

I agree that gold will lead the charge...but there's also a lot of catching up that silver might do in the short run..and definitely playable.
TM

[dharma]

the elephants in the room are cbs in the gold market speculators are the elephants in the silver market, sure it has industrial uses. however , when the price marks up suppliers will look for alternatives, that will not be the case for gold. i saw last time, when the price of silver gets high enough, the supply will appear. besides which the volatility of silver will be quite alot to reckon w/ place your bets dharma

[tradermama]

the elephants in the room are cbs in the gold market
speculators are the elephants in the silver market, sure it has industrial uses. however , when the price marks up suppliers will look for alternatives, that will not be the case for gold. i saw last time, when the price of silver gets high enough, the supply will appear. besides which the volatility of silver will be quite alot to reckon w/
place your bets

dharma

and again, it's a play..a fresh buy today that hasn't happend since June..if gold can't break over 1642..it might be short lived too...there's many ways to play this..and this is just one..slw is a good play too albeit overbought..and of course gold..I'm looking all around for good percentage gains
TM

[Russ]

PNF bullish price objective is $58, higher than last years peak, given that, it seems probable that silver and gold will go up longer than October, more likely Dec/Jan as I project. This can only mean there is some serious [bleeeep] coming down the line in the debt world.

Btw... I saw another forecaster say recently that Silver would lead Gold up and with Silver's breakout that seems to be unfolding now.

silver finally got a pnf buy!!..to me this is a signal for a launch coming for that Mars in Scorpio..it hasn't seen a buy since June...Aug 23-Oct 5..favorable towards pms
TM

Edited by Russ, 21 August 2012 - 05:47 AM.

[tradermama]

PNF bullish price objective is $58, higher than last years peak, given that, it seems probable that silver and gold will go up longer than October, more likely Dec/Jan as I project. This can only mean there is some serious [bleeeep] coming down the line in the debt world.

Btw... I saw another forecaster say recently that Silver would lead Gold up and with Silver's breakout that seems to be unfolding now.

silver finally got a pnf buy!!..to me this is a signal for a launch coming for that Mars in Scorpio..it hasn't seen a buy since June...Aug 23-Oct 5..favorable towards pms
TM

I know stockcharts shows 58 but that has to be a mistake. This was only a double top breakout and Dorsey shows 33. Normally they are fairly close but Dorsey's stuff has more accuracy. If you look at stockcharts it doesn't even show the column in X's..yesterday they had a problem with their charts not working..so maybe that's also an issue. No matter, imo, we are getting all the ducks in a row for some rally..how hi?..it has to get over 30 first which most likely will stall it..if gold can get over 1642..then we got some action in silver too.

I"m getting more RS's (relative strength) changes in the miners changing to X's..just got another one on FSM and NG and yet they aren't on a buy yet...shows to me odds higher and higher that a bottom is in..waiting for GDX to follow soon...

My point was percentage wise it might lead (10% on $29=$2.90/10% on 1625=$162) in the beginning because of how long its been down...and how many shorts yet to cover...it's been down longer than gold....gold ultimately will lead ..until silver can get some respect..it's considered more of an industrial metal..but still many think of it as the poor man's gold...but if gold can't get over 1642 silver's upside will be limited of course
TM

Edited by tradermama, 21 August 2012 - 06:04 AM.

[Russ]

Getting ready to rock!

[dharma]

PNF bullish price objective is $58, higher than last years peak, given that, it seems probable that silver and gold will go up longer than October, more likely Dec/Jan as I project. This can only mean there is some serious [bleeeep] coming down the line in the debt world.

Btw... I saw another forecaster say recently that Silver would lead Gold up and with Silver's breakout that seems to be unfolding now.

silver finally got a pnf buy!!..to me this is a signal for a launch coming for that Mars in Scorpio..it hasn't seen a buy since June...Aug 23-Oct 5..favorable towards pms
TM

right now , silver is leading gold. silver is the more speculative of the 2, its an indication of what folks think about the dollar.
here is their thinking
Milton Friedman's Advice

In 1997 Milton Friedman commented on Bank of Japan policy following Japan's deflationary spiral of the early 1990s:

Defenders of the Bank of Japan will say, "How? The bank has already cut its discount rate to 0.5 percent. What more can it do to increase the quantity of money?"

The answer is straightforward: The Bank of Japan can buy government bonds on the open market, paying for them with either currency or deposits at the Bank of Japan, what economists call high-powered money. Most of the proceeds will end up in commercial banks, adding to their reserves and enabling them to expand their liabilities by loans and open market purchases. But whether they do so or not, the money supply will increase.

There is no limit to the extent to which the Bank of Japan can increase the money supply if it wishes to do so. Higher monetary growth will have the same effect as always. After a year or so, the economy will expand more rapidly; output will grow, and after another delay, inflation will increase moderately. A return to the conditions of the late 1980s would rejuvenate Japan and help shore up the rest of Asia.

Austerity measures adopted in Europe are failing and central banks are likely to attempt Friedman's option in a number of guises. Already, as Gary Shilling points out "competitive quantitative easing by central banks is now the order of the day." The Bank of Japan last year expanded its balance sheet by 11 percent, the Federal Reserve by 19 percent, the European Central Bank by 36 percent and the Swiss National Bank by 33 percent. Even countries with relatively strong balance sheets, like Switzerland, are forced to respond to prevent appreciation of their currencies from harming exports.

Inflation will remain moderate only so long as central bank balance sheet expansion is offset by deflationary pressures from private sector deleveraging. That is the difficult task ahead: to maneuver a soft landing by balancing the two opposing forces. Failure to do so could lead to a bumpy ride.


keynes thinking is dominant @cbs today. deflation, while prevalent, will not be dominant, w/this crew os central bankers in charge. its prechter dream. i am not sold on hyperinflation, which i pray , does not come to pass. paper promises controlled by liars, though has a definite outcome. i fhulbert is right, now that stack of analysts who have been advising shorting, will be forced to cover @ some point. the shorts are now trapped

dharma

[dharma]

these guys are not the most astute market timers. but they know when their survival is on the line

Central bank’s purchase of gold is the biggest reason why gold didn’t break down to the $1,200 level.

Their purchases annualized at over 600 tonnes per year! That pretty incredible.
eric
Global gold demand was down 7% to 990 tonnes (year over year), but was only down 1% in value terms.

More importantly, central bank buying has reached a record level of 157.5 tonnes (for the quarter), almost twice as much as last year, and represents 16% of global demand.

Pierre
http://kingworldnews...s_Buy_Gold.html

dharma

[tradermama]

these guys are not the most astute market timers. but they know when their survival is on the line

Central bank’s purchase of gold is the biggest reason why gold didn’t break down to the $1,200 level.

Their purchases annualized at over 600 tonnes per year! That pretty incredible.
eric
Global gold demand was down 7% to 990 tonnes (year over year), but was only down 1% in value terms.

More importantly, central bank buying has reached a record level of 157.5 tonnes (for the quarter), almost twice as much as last year, and represents 16% of global demand.

Pierre
http://kingworldnews...s_Buy_Gold.html

dharma

I'm afraid the link doesn't work, Dharma
TM