Jump to content



Photo

Stocks: Major Timing for Change of Trend


  • Please log in to reply
12 replies to this topic

#1 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 584 posts

Posted 29 August 2012 - 09:12 PM

According to some of my more esoteric market timing analyses, Monday 9/17/12, give or take a trading day or two, has a pretty high probability of marking a very important turning point in stock indices. If the market rallies into that window, I would be alert for a top and reversal that should start an intermediate or primary downtrend which may run for many months, perhaps into long-term cycle lows due late 2016 to early 2017. If the market sells off into the 9/17 area, I would have to assume that market may make a low and begin a powerful uptrend that could run for months. I think valuations, long-term sentiment, important divergences, and my interpretation of the chart pattern (rising wedge pattern that is nearly complete), tips the scales in favor of expecting the market to top around 9/17/12 rather than a low. I guess we'll see in a few weeks. As usual, forecasts and timing projections are about the future - for which there is no certitude about anything except death and taxes. Kimston

#2 CRUISENAL

CRUISENAL

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,135 posts

Posted 22 October 2012 - 01:23 PM

Kim, Your call was pretty close to the top. Excellent! What are your thoughts now as we slide this slippery slope down? Thanks Alan

#3 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 584 posts

Posted 26 October 2012 - 08:27 PM

Kim,

Your call was pretty close to the top. Excellent!

What are your thoughts now as we slide this slippery slope down? Thanks Alan


"Pretty close"? Actually, most indices peaked (so far) exactly in the timing window I was looking for. The 14th is "give or take a trading day or two" of the 17th. It's too soon to add anything new. I went short at 1474.25 basis SPX on the 14th (via Mar & Jun puts) because it was a major price projection that got hit precisely in the time window I was watching for a top. Anyone who studies market geometry or Gann analysis should know why 1474.25 was important. In my analysis this created a major price and time square (or confluence). I remain short, but will stop out at 1484 (basis SPX ) if the whole thing blows up on me.

Kimston

#4 edamat

edamat

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 18 posts

Posted 27 October 2012 - 10:35 AM

Kim,

Your call was pretty close to the top. Excellent!

What are your thoughts now as we slide this slippery slope down? Thanks Alan


"Pretty close"? Actually, most indices peaked (so far) exactly in the timing window I was looking for. The 14th is "give or take a trading day or two" of the 17th. It's too soon to add anything new. I went short at 1474.25 basis SPX on the 14th (via Mar & Jun puts) because it was a major price projection that got hit precisely in the time window I was watching for a top. Anyone who studies market geometry or Gann analysis should know why 1474.25 was important. In my analysis this created a major price and time square (or confluence). I remain short, but will stop out at 1484 (basis SPX ) if the whole thing blows up on me.

Kimston


Hi, Kim,
what do you think of Long Term Treasuies (TLT)? is it bottoming since it moves opposite to S&P?
thanks

#5 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 584 posts

Posted 30 October 2012 - 08:18 PM

Kim,

Your call was pretty close to the top. Excellent!

What are your thoughts now as we slide this slippery slope down? Thanks Alan


"Pretty close"? Actually, most indices peaked (so far) exactly in the timing window I was looking for. The 14th is "give or take a trading day or two" of the 17th. It's too soon to add anything new. I went short at 1474.25 basis SPX on the 14th (via Mar & Jun puts) because it was a major price projection that got hit precisely in the time window I was watching for a top. Anyone who studies market geometry or Gann analysis should know why 1474.25 was important. In my analysis this created a major price and time square (or confluence). I remain short, but will stop out at 1484 (basis SPX ) if the whole thing blows up on me.

Kimston


Hi, Kim,
what do you think of Long Term Treasuies (TLT)? is it bottoming since it moves opposite to S&P?
thanks


Hi Ed,
I don't have a strong opinion or any position on bonds at the moment. I would lean towards the long side for the reasons you point out, although bonds don't always run inverse to stocks. Long term I think bonds won't complete a major top until Feb 2012 (give or take a couple months). However, I'm quite sure there will be large swings up and down between now and then.

Kimston

#6 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 584 posts

Posted 31 October 2012 - 08:52 PM

Kim,

Your call was pretty close to the top. Excellent!

What are your thoughts now as we slide this slippery slope down? Thanks Alan


"Pretty close"? Actually, most indices peaked (so far) exactly in the timing window I was looking for. The 14th is "give or take a trading day or two" of the 17th. It's too soon to add anything new. I went short at 1474.25 basis SPX on the 14th (via Mar & Jun puts) because it was a major price projection that got hit precisely in the time window I was watching for a top. Anyone who studies market geometry or Gann analysis should know why 1474.25 was important. In my analysis this created a major price and time square (or confluence). I remain short, but will stop out at 1484 (basis SPX ) if the whole thing blows up on me.

Kimston


Hi, Kim,
what do you think of Long Term Treasuies (TLT)? is it bottoming since it moves opposite to S&P?
thanks


I posted a response to Edamat but it didn't get published. Was there a problem with the content?

#7 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 584 posts

Posted 01 November 2012 - 12:59 PM

Kim,

Your call was pretty close to the top. Excellent!

What are your thoughts now as we slide this slippery slope down? Thanks Alan


"Pretty close"? Actually, most indices peaked (so far) exactly in the timing window I was looking for. The 14th is "give or take a trading day or two" of the 17th. It's too soon to add anything new. I went short at 1474.25 basis SPX on the 14th (via Mar & Jun puts) because it was a major price projection that got hit precisely in the time window I was watching for a top. Anyone who studies market geometry or Gann analysis should know why 1474.25 was important. In my analysis this created a major price and time square (or confluence). I remain short, but will stop out at 1484 (basis SPX ) if the whole thing blows up on me.

Kimston


Hi, Kim,
what do you think of Long Term Treasuies (TLT)? is it bottoming since it moves opposite to S&P?
thanks


Hi Ed,
I don't have a strong opinion or any position on bonds at the moment. I would lean towards the long side for the reasons you point out, although bonds don't always run inverse to stocks. Long term I think bonds won't complete a major top until Feb 2012 (give or take a couple months). However, I'm quite sure there will be large swings up and down between now and then.

Kimston



Edit: The above should say "Feb 2017 (give or take a couple months)".

#8 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 584 posts

Posted 09 December 2012 - 10:21 PM

My timing analysis suggests a reasonably high probability of a secondary peak in stocks now (12/7 to 12/10 area). I also have a significant timing confluence for a potential turn 2/1/13 (+/- a trading day or two). It's too early to guess what the polarity may be, but I'm leaning toward it being a low as of now. I'll revisit the polarity question as we approach the end of January. Kimston

#9 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 584 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 07:11 PM

It looks like the secondary high is probably in. It was a day or two later than projected, but that is within the normal tolerance for my market timing analysis. Whether there needs to be a topping process or not I have no idea, but I don't expect any significant price advance above the highs of last week.

The latest COT data shows the commercial traders (presumed to be smart money) have the largest short position in over a year on the E-mini S&P. If you are bullish on stocks, you must know something the commercials don't.

Kimston

Posted Image

#10 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 584 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 12:18 AM

The timing for the secondary peak has been elusive (assuming the market is in a topping process). Posted below is the Emini continuous nearby futures with possible geometric resistance/reversal pattern. The apex and back-kiss convergence is the same on the SPX cash chart (log scale).

Kimston

Posted Image