36 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Be very careful

Yup, lots of unexpected technical internal breakdowns too place yesterday usually leads to "something wicked this way comes".

This should pass by Wednesday of next week.

Until then...

Fib

How do you figure that specific time frame ?

"Crash like" events have very small windows of opportunity...usually about 3-4 trading days after a triggered event.

Fib

Could be, but I've seen things before that makes this hard to predict. Like July 2011 comes to mind out of the recent ones, also triggered by Europe. . Nevermind the 2008 bloodbath.

[TechMan]

I have no short term target for SPX, but I'll start reducing positions as we go lower. I think we'll return to the 200 DMA at some point on the bounce and retest it. Though its anyone's guess how low it goes before that.

I don't understand. Why are you looking for bounces? This market is going straight down. You should increase your short positions by selling into every bounce instead of reducing them.

[SemiBizz]

I have a very educated guess where it is going, and "average" prices are fine for reference but they don't identify buyers and sellers, stops, covering and entry points. There are lots of averaging schemes, including E-wave, trend lines etc., but we only use them for reference.

Yes, yes, I know, I was going to do it today

GS 114.50 premarket

[ogm]

I have no short term target for SPX, but I'll start reducing positions as we go lower. I think we'll return to the 200 DMA at some point on the bounce and retest it. Though its anyone's guess how low it goes before that.

I don't understand. Why are you looking for bounces? This market is going straight down. You should increase your short positions by selling into every bounce instead of reducing them.

Ok, I'll take the bait for the sake of other readers.

Markets are unpredictable. You can be right on the direction of the trend, but you don't know what shape the trend is going to take. There will be bounces, you can bet on it. And sharp downtrends have very sharp bounces.

As the markets continue down, I gradually lock in the profits and build up cash for opportunities that will be there.

For example ... Some bullcrap "words" from Europe can spike this market 20 points in a matter of minutes and that will be an opportunity.

Plus there are always new opportunities opening up, like JCP this morning.

Simple money management. I'm trading to make money.

....

Today for example, Obama going to be giving a speech on the fiscal cliff. You bet the futures are bouncing ahead of the speech. And quite likely its on opportunity for a daytrade. And you're probably thinking its the mother of all bottoms

Edited by ogm, 09 November 2012 - 09:09 AM.

[TechMan]

I have no short term target for SPX, but I'll start reducing positions as we go lower. I think we'll return to the 200 DMA at some point on the bounce and retest it. Though its anyone's guess how low it goes before that.

I don't understand. Why are you looking for bounces? This market is going straight down. You should increase your short positions by selling into every bounce instead of reducing them.

Ok, I'll take the bait for the sake of other readers.

Markets are unpredictable. You can be right on the direction of the trend, but you don't know what shape the trend is going to take. There will be bounces, you can bet on it. And sharp downtrends have very sharp bounces.

As the markets continue down, I gradually lock in the profits and build up cash for opportunities that will be there.

For example ... Some bullcrap "words" from Europe can spike this market 20 points in a matter of minutes and that will be an opportunity.

Plus there are always new opportunities opening up, like JCP this morning.

Simple money management. I'm trading to make money.

I understand all that, but you've been adamantly criticizing traders that are looking for bounces. Your advice has been to sell into every bounce, including traders who trade both ways to make money.

I'm surprised now you're the one that's looking for bounces - "very sharp" bounces.

Edited by TechMan, 09 November 2012 - 09:12 AM.

[SemiBizz]

No time to argue OGM. I'll take this one. The answer here is simple - your odds SUCK on a countertrend long here. All the risk for some time now has been LONG. Day after day we make new lows. OGM is dong the smart thing by taking reasonable profits, waiting for the inevitable bounce. Then re-shorting. He's taking ODDS on his trades.

[TechMan]

No time to argue OGM. I'll take this one.

The answer here is simple - your odds SUCK on a countertrend long here.

All the risk for some time now has been LONG.

Day after day we make new lows.

OGM is dong the smart thing by taking reasonable profits, waiting for the inevitable bounce.

Then re-shorting.


He's taking ODDS on his trades.

I understand all that, and that's not my point.

This is what I'm trying to understand.

=============

"I understand all that, but you've been adamantly criticizing traders that are looking for bounces. Your advice has been to sell into every bounce, including traders who trade both ways to make money.

I'm surprised now you're the one that's looking for bounces - "very sharp" bounces."

=============

[SemiBizz]

Considering the fact he wasn't looking for bounces and the market went straight DOWN. I'd be listening very carefully now if he says he expects sharp bounces... That simple. BTW, my intepretation of his remarks is that is his "opinion" If you take that as criticism, because it doesn't agree with yours... that's your issue.

Edited by SemiBizz, 09 November 2012 - 09:21 AM.

[TechMan]

Considering the fact he wasn't looking for bounces and the market went straight DOWN.

I'd be listening very carefully now if he says he expects sharp bounces...

That simple.

So, he's changed his analysis overnight?

Should we all start looking for "very sharp" bounces now?

[dasein]

man, TM - is it really taking this so much time to get thru to you, or are you purposely obtuse, hopeing to suggest a flaw in OGMs analysis so people pay more attention to your calls? Semi is right on and very clear - OgM is right on and PDClear - if you arent looking for bounces in this DT to add shorts on, you just arent a trend trader so no point in discussing it.