Jump to content



Photo

MARKET THOUGHTS ...


  • Please log in to reply
73 replies to this topic

#1 Mr Dev

Mr Dev

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 11,511 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:11 PM

now that i have your attention .. im not completely throwing out the technicals just yet but here
are a number of reasons why i think we shouldn't be relying on them for now.

first seasonality. we had a big gap up 6 days ago and we've not filled it. in fact we are consolidating those gains to become reasonable over the last week.

second the feds. this also plays on seasonality but they are there standing-by and will take advantage of a market dip (if there is one) to create a bear trap and ...
short covering rally into the strongest buying season of the year. in their eyes its all about the greater good leading into the strong selling season.

third the Euro Markets. while we have stagnated waiting on the F.C. to either arrive on our door step or be somewhat managed, not resolved completely mind you,
Euro Markets as well as overseas markets have bounced and or in the Euroland case continued to rise. in fact yesterday the RYWVX Emerging Fund was Up + 2.46%. and turned
positive for the week.

i'm just saying with this sideways consolidation .. and more time to agree on a F.C. adjustment, and with world markets bouncing and us lagging their is a developing spring taking
place for the US markets on a short term basis,.. to try and Gap above this resistance that is containing prices.

please look at a 60 RUT chart.... you will NOT see a flater line ,, and the market makers or feds have done this same thing in years past preventing any pullback to allow for a flat market,
as opposed to a down market, into year end ..for new hope for the greater good.

so that said shorts still have to be cautious because of the forces that would like to see the markets end the year up or above 13000 for the INDU... as do bulls because of the
deteriorating growth that has taken place along with weaker earnings a bearish technicals.

thinking out loud ..maybe i take the rest of 2012 off. B) or leave a small short NDX position on until February . B)

either way trade small ...until we have something more to trade is the mantra while watching 60 buy & sell signals...

which btw ..approached the 0line to the DOWN SIDE this morning.. but has been RIDICULOUSLY been gliding along it today !
something not often seen !!


im short the RUT .. but may manage that over to the NDX at any given time.. if and when it looks good ill go back to the emerging fund for a short.
however im never playing that one long over the RUT or NDX as its price movements are wild and to hard to predict for AM navs.
:bowtie:

Edited by Mr Dev, 06 December 2012 - 03:19 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#2 redfoliage2

redfoliage2

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 11,929 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:34 PM

I see market will break out of this tight range and goes down for next two weeks. Right now it's a back kiss of the death action on the ES daily chart.

Edited by redfoliage2, 06 December 2012 - 03:37 PM.


#3 Mr Dev

Mr Dev

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 11,511 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:50 PM

i hope you are right because im short....however i dont have a BK on the INDU ..which they would like to keep above 13k into year end. i only have a strong BK on the NDX. .. the RUT is to FLAT to show a BK and SPX is muddling as well.

Edited by Mr Dev, 06 December 2012 - 03:51 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#4 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,879 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 04:18 PM

I'm not completely throwing out the technicals just yet but here are a number of reasons why i think we shouldn't be relying on them for now.

And so it begins.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

Technical Watch Subscriptions

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page


#5 ogm

ogm

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 13,780 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 04:24 PM

This nasty seemingly directionless grind is actually a technical uptrend. I know its not very exciting, but its an uptrend.

It hasn't broken yet and they aren't giving any meaningful downside until we get the darn politicians out of the way.

I think being short this is like sitting on a powder keg. You get some rumors of a deal with no details, and you'll have a 20 point rally in a matter of minutes. The market is wound very tight and just waiting for a blast off signal.
Now after that bullcrap is out of the way, and some details start coming out and people will have a chance to understand what it means, then its a different story.

Posted Image

Edited by ogm, 06 December 2012 - 04:31 PM.


#6 andiron

andiron

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,757 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 04:42 PM

wonder if sentinels finally got long here....

#7 Mr Dev

Mr Dev

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 11,511 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:02 PM

from tonights charts the last 6 days of MONEY FLOWS across the indexes are very strong .. almost to an extreme. for the SPX we've not seen this since last June July and before that Jan Feb. so i suspect you are right ... someone is surpressing the markets based on what could happen while money is pooring in so it can SPRING higher on good news. higher highs now likely before lower lows and maybe even new highs. im feeling much less bearish and even starting a bullish sense. which is supported by the NAMO cumm, NAUD upward crosses and the extremes for the MOMO, which could prove a low in the markets near here since we have no volatility going on as it sits in Extreme Neg territory. .if the markets can survive this with lil to no declines and have the MOMO exit and move thru bearish trend and into its bullish trend we should see new highs as it takes the next trip into Extreme Bullish teritory. :bowtie:

.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#8 Mr Dev

Mr Dev

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 11,511 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:16 PM

here's a look at the Money Flow i was talking about, and its looking this positive for all indices including the Nasdaq.

however,..as you can see on the second chart below, in past months when we've reached this extreme area ( highlighted in faint yellow rectangle) there is usually a dip .
a dip worth buying as the history shows over the last year.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by Mr Dev, 06 December 2012 - 09:23 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#9 Mr Dev

Mr Dev

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 11,511 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:24 PM

Fib what's your point?

I'm not completely throwing out the technicals just yet but here are a number of reasons why i think we shouldn't be relying on them for now.

And so it begins.

Fib


Edited by Mr Dev, 06 December 2012 - 09:24 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#10 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,879 posts

Posted 06 December 2012 - 09:37 PM

Fib what's your point?

I'm not completely throwing out the technicals just yet but here are a number of reasons why i think we shouldn't be relying on them for now.

And so it begins.

Fib

You've made it for me...it is what it is.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

Technical Watch Subscriptions

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page