73 replies to this topic

[andiron]

NYMO is as helpful in predicting NYAD future course

No, it's the other way around. The NYAD line is the fuel gauge, the MCO measures the thrust or acceleration quotient of the fuel being used that can be power prices in one direction or the other.






The MCSUM then measures the distance that this same energy dynamic can push prices in this same direction...and the time it will take to reach this objective.

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Fib

if MCO measures the thrust than it will indicate if the fuel gauge (NYAD) shows an uptick or downtick depending on if the thrust is upthrust or a downthrust..so you are contradicting yourself.....

now it appears that your postulate is that NYSI will indicate the distance (in time?) that prices will travel before it stalls/reverses finally (as apparent in your palm-reading effort as to how long the price will travel up (summer 2013) since the last highs of 2010 were recorded disregarding severe market declines since then (however temporary)....but as I read it SP's question was why NYSI low reading of 2008 did not produce a DISTANCE as large ...unless of course, you are also postulating that SPX will hit below 2009 lows few years down the line...

http://img248.images...48/760/nysi.png

Edited by andiron, 09 December 2012 - 02:44 PM.

[fib_1618]

if MCO measures the thrust than it will indicate if the fuel gauge (NYAD) shows an uptick or down tick depending on if the thrust is upthrust or a down thrust

With a little bit of research on your part, you would have found that because of their mathematical make up, both the MCO and MCSUM are trending indicators based on the daily cumulative total of advancing issues over declining issues (the basis of the A/D line). Each daily up tick or down tick are like mid course corrections as one would do when they apply and lift off the pressure on an accelerator pedal.

but as I read it SP's question was why NYSI low reading of 2008 did not produce a DISTANCE as large

Because the MCSUM does not measure the bear market default, it only measures the amount of energy that is necessary for prices to move against this same default. Like most modern technical analysis, much of the tools we use today have their basis in rocket science....that of "thrust" off the launching pad...the amount of energy needed to reach "escape velocity" of the bear market's (Earth's) "gravitational pull"...and whether or not there was enough energy expelled to provide the distance necessary away from this default to where prices (the rocket or shuttle) can remain buoyant enough (in orbit) to keep it from crashing back to this same constant, unyielding default.

In other words, the answer to your semi quasi interpretation of SP's question is that you can't use the MCSUM to project downside distance because you can only crash to Earth...you can't travel through it no matter how must thrust is applied. So you have "re-entry" (October 2008), followed by "recovery" (November 2008) and a new launch is then scheduled (March 2009).

BTW, the best way to utilize the many analytical nuances of the McClellan Summation Index is on a daily basis, with individual "dot" postings so you can actually see this acceleration/deceleration process in its proper format.

Fib

[andiron]

MCO is an OSCILLATOR and not a trending indicator...it will oscillate in a trending or a rangebound market... Rest...I haven't had such potent stuff yet...but man I would like to have what u taking.....

Edited by andiron, 10 December 2012 - 07:08 AM.

[fib_1618]

MCO is an OSCILLATOR and not a trending indicator...it will oscillate in a trending or a range bound market...

You have a lot to learn about the McClellan tools, no less, technical analysis.

Maybe you will, maybe you won't, but if you're making money, that's all that really counts when the rubber meets the road.

Thanks for the discussion.

Fib

[andiron]

MCO is an OSCILLATOR and not a trending indicator...it will oscillate in a trending or a range bound market...

You have a lot to learn about the McClellan tools, no less, technical analysis.

Maybe you will, maybe you won't, but if you're making money, that's all that really counts when the rubber meets the road.

Thanks for the discussion.

Fib

that's why TA is not taught in universities,my friend..as it does not meet the test of rigor.....quackery vs science.......
worse, quacks having conceited belief in their expertise...

Edited by andiron, 10 December 2012 - 08:19 AM.

[fib_1618]

that's why TA is not taught in universities

Tell that to UCLA where I taught it in the early 1980'S!

You're quite a character.

Fib

[andiron]

let me clue you in... what is a stop loss? Say... you have 25+ yrs of TA expertise.. you are looking at a financial instrument where your TA signalling a good buy point.. you bought based on TA analysis projecting profit in neat future..you might as well have projected how much profit and when (DISTANCE !!) to cash in.. The market went the other way and your TA failed.. Your stoploss took you out for a predetermined loss.. TA failure!! You are a good trader and making consistent profit.. but the above example showed that you do not treat your TA as science but just a probabilistic game...one that is more art then science..and if you develop expertise in this ART, you may become a good trader and BEAT other traders with similar expertise in TA at their game..... Do not be an Obscurantist or worse, a Fundamentalist....A good Trader always has one dictum in his mind..."He does not know what is in future...he can only guess"

Edited by andiron, 10 December 2012 - 09:05 AM.

[fib_1618]

"He does not know what is in future...he can only guess"

So...are you saying that all of your trades are guesses...that you have no guidelines in your execution??

Fib

[CLK]

Fib, I don't see the NYMO having any superior benefit over most other indicators. Start teaching CCI, maybe you will get more followers. If you think NYMO is that great, start calling the market eod and let us be the judge. NYMO is going up or down until it doesn't, very few times does it make a choppy/divergent turn.

[fib_1618]

I don't see the NYMO having any superior benefit over most other indicators.

An absolutely astounding statement given the consistency in forecasting that this tool provides.

BTW...we had our 5th consecutive small point change on the NYSE breadth RA MCO today.

One things for sure, we're going to have a whopper of a move once this tension on the tape is released.

Oh, and the CCI measures the variation of a chart's price from its statistical mean...pretty much a waste of time if you apply it to the MCO as there is no basis to compare such information.

NYMO is going up or down until it doesn't, very few times does it make a choppy/divergent turn.

I can't even find the words of shocked amazement at this statement. It's like you just started doing this yesterday.

If you think NYMO is that great, start calling the market eod and let us be the judge.

I have for many years...and do so today only for subscribers.

Again there is an absolute TON of transcripts and posts at Technical Watch for your review where you can play judge and jury if you want to put in the effort.

Fib