MARKET THOUGHTS ...
Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:52 AM
Market rallied for 10 days straight in June and you were bearish. Just as a snippet, here was your post. I could pull up threads from this forum also, but don't make us work like dogs, please fib.
You start your shorts at bottoms and start long holds at peaks. I have demonstrated your stats for 2 years straight now on this same forum. Don't make me embarass you even more now.
I am taking a break from you. Because it is too much waste for me and others discussing your ineptitude. Good luck, that is what my wish finally is!
Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:31 PM
Why not? Your making such statements should be easily backed up with facts, otherwise, it's just bitter fruit.
but don't make us work like dogs, please fib.
Now...to the tweets in reference of which you, of course, you are only sharing part of the story.
Market rallied for 10 days straight in June and you were bearish.
There are varying time frames in which I refer to in these posts. Some can become muddy as to their dominant application, but since you took these two, I will collectively respond.
As we you and I have tried to discuss in the past, the primary time frame of the BETS indicator is that of an intermeidate term tool...that is, of 1-3 months. Because of this, like the McClellan Summation Index, it will be slow to turn both up and down but usually does a good job in keeping investors in and out of the market to maximum benefit. The BETS, along with the forecasting reverence of the MCSUM, then provides a great guide for all traders, of all time frames, because it gives you the information of whether or not an uptrend, downtrend, or just a basic consolidation pattern is in force. Looking at the BETS data at the time you reference (June 9), it was still cautious of the initial early June reflex rally in the equity markets and indicating to "hold a shorts with a bearish bias". This then complimented the NYSE breadth MCSUM's time objective given two months earlier of looking for a mid June low to finish off the corrective process brought on by the March price highs.
But here's the rest of the story. Provided below is how the actual bottom came about on June 25th...well within the 2 week window for the MCSUM's time objective of mid June, with the BETS going to cash, and the MCSUM moving back above the zero line all on that same day. This turned out to be the first higher low in what became a 3 month advance.
Now, should we go back and see what the discussion was on that frightful day? Probably not since we all pretty much know what the sentiment was going into that weekend given the one week pattern and fundamental backdrop at that time.
So, no, I don't start my shorts at bottoms, nor do I initiate longs at tops. You must be confusing me with someone else, either that, or you have selective agenda.
For those who may be curious as to the boards sentiment going into that weekend, here you go.
Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:50 AM