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US Dollar - Then and Now


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#11 Kimston

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 09:25 AM

Raising stop to 80.65 on long positions accumulated at 79.13 basis nearby futures.

#12 Kimston

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 01:33 AM

I think the dollar breached 80.65 for about 5 seconds on the recent low, but I didn't dump my Jan UUP calls. When trading futures I enter hard stops. When trading options I base my stop out on price of the underlying instrument on a closing basis, which didn't happen on the dollar.....yet. For now I have some timing for possible CIT 7/12/13 (+/- a trading day or 2), presumably a low if the timing projection is valid. Kimston

#13 kssmibotm

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 12:57 PM

I think the dollar breached 80.65 for about 5 seconds on the recent low, but I didn't dump my Jan UUP calls. When trading futures I enter hard stops. When trading options I base my stop out on price of the underlying instrument on a closing basis, which didn't happen on the dollar.....yet.

For now I have some timing for possible CIT 7/12/13 (+/- a trading day or 2), presumably a low if the timing projection is valid.

Kimston


I fundamentally agree with your call for a higher USD. I am playing it by being short the Euro. I am long EUO.

The long dollar call also means more downside for gold. Are you short gold?

People think the Holy Grail is something looked for but never found. In fact, it is something often found but rarely recognized.

#14 Kimston

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Posted 14 July 2013 - 10:07 PM

I think the dollar breached 80.65 for about 5 seconds on the recent low, but I didn't dump my Jan UUP calls. When trading futures I enter hard stops. When trading options I base my stop out on price of the underlying instrument on a closing basis, which didn't happen on the dollar.....yet.

For now I have some timing for possible CIT 7/12/13 (+/- a trading day or 2), presumably a low if the timing projection is valid.

Kimston


I fundamentally agree with your call for a higher USD. I am playing it by being short the Euro. I am long EUO.

The long dollar call also means more downside for gold. Are you short gold?


Not at the moment. I went long a small position in silver on 6/28/13. Still holding for a potentially bigger bounce. Intermediate term, I expect sideways to lower prices in the metals. I'm not basing my metals outlook on the dollar. Sometimes they run inverse and sometimes they don't.

Kimston

#15 Kimston

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 10:22 PM

Well, the dollar took longer to start its up move than anticipated, but the overall pattern has played out so far. Obviously no resistance was apparent at the 92.50 area as the dollar sliced right through there. My current work on the dollar suggests a multi-week to multi-month decline or consolidation should be underway from this top it appears to be making here in late Jan 2015. After that I'm not sure. This 96 area is where the down trend line from the 2/11/85 top (164.72) to the 1/28/02 top (121.30) projects to (on log scale chart). If DXY takes out the 1/23/15 highs by more than a couple points, thereby breaching the long term down trend line, that would likely indicate the dollar is going much higher over the next few years to it's presumed final destination of 113 to 114 area. However, this long-term trendline in the 96 area may be marking an important top now. I think best odds are for a significant correction now followed by eventual break to the higher targets. Kimston