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UVXY ... the decay monster


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#11 SemiBizz

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:02 AM

More like RADIOACTIVE Decay...

One slip of the tongue now from any of these DC characters and UVXY can be at 30.

:o



10:04 Reid: "Going over the cliff looks like where we're headed"



The peak fear moment ?



Not even close.

Nasdaq Composite is under the 200 DMA - one of your yardsticks.

Edited by SemiBizz, 27 December 2012 - 11:03 AM.

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#12 SemiBizz

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:16 AM

(12/24 Trader's Talk)

The tests of the September highs were negated on Friday as the Nasdaq and SPX both broke on STRONGER VOLUME than we saw at the highs. It's quite normal to see a bounce on lighter volume after such an ugly GAP DOWN ON STRONGER VOLUME decline. We expect light volume for the holidays, so enjoy the bounce, while it lasts. The final determination will come next week when we expect STRONGER VOLUME to start the new year. That volume will either flip the chart back up or reinforce the DOWNTREND indicated by Friday's Tsunami of Volume to the downside


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Only another 80 pts to support now 2892.

:)
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#13 ogm

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 01:57 PM

Well, even if it doesn't look like it right now, I'm going to stick with the bullish outlook here for now. The down cycle is ending. Multi day strengthening is coming up. Today and tomorrow are the last days of tax selling.

Edited by ogm, 27 December 2012 - 01:58 PM.


#14 SemiBizz

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 02:14 PM

With this light volume, you should get a bounce somewhere along the line here.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#15 DrSP

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 09:19 AM

Even with the market rally in the last minutes yesterday, VIX set itself up in backwardation. Going forward, I think VIX higher is the way to go.
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#16 DrSP

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 06:52 PM

ogm, Heads up for you. Both VXX and UVXY closed way way below their NAV. Check VXX.IV and UVXY.IV. Basically VXX should have closed at 38.65$ and UVXY at 32.25$. These IVs are almost 3 - 5$ above the cash closes. On Monday, these 2 ETFs will be calculated according to today's IV closes - not cash closes. You still have more than 1 hour in after hour trading to do something, which may help your position.
You could be a billionaire or an industrial worker or a teacher or a moderator of a forum - Hold a good conscience because that is what matters.