Jump to content



Photo

Is anybody buying this dip ?


  • Please log in to reply
28 replies to this topic

#1 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,087 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:01 PM

I keep asking this as most chartists and analysts are masters of post-mortem. While trading is exactly opposite, which requires making decisions when most analysts would shy away from making recommendations or are deliberately ambiguous. It's easy, warm and comfortable near the tops. It tough to buy the dips for those who don't have faith in the trend or do not have the necessary tools to ascertain the trend.

So are you guys buying this dip ? How many here still believe the trend is up ? Please raise your hands.

I have pretty much bought all the dips since i posted a buy signal on the SPX a few weeks back. But i am not buying this one. SPX hourly pivot got broken today and we got a nice retracement in the last 2 hours. Any retracement failure here, i will be shorting with both the hands.


Back then, the wall of worry was steep (Nov 15)
http://www.traders-t...?...=143145&hl=

Two major wall of worries aren't there any more - The Mayan doom and the Fiscal cliff.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#2 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,863 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:22 PM

Sentimentrader.com: December 26, 2012 Newsletter writers that follow the Nasdaq are now recommending investors be 75% net long that index, one of the highest allocations in more than a decade.

#3 IYB

IYB

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 7,141 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:49 PM

So are you guys buying this dip ? How many here still believe the trend is up ? Please raise your hands.

Aye. From tonight's comments:

"....the SPX and US markets in general in the short term have been under some extreme fear and selling pressure due to one factor only... the Fiscal Cliff "Crisis". We use quotes around the word "crisis" because we believe it to be far more hype than substance. Fiscal Cliff Obsession would be a better description....because the entire FC issue is temporary and will soon be nearly completely forgotten .....not unlike, for example, the Y2K Obsession. In retrospect, we believe this obsession will be shown to have been "tilting at windmills."

Today we saw what well could have been the peak of those "crisis" fears, and the upturn...."

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#4 RevHappy

RevHappy

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 48 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:00 PM

Looks like a classic momentum reversal to me. Usually very good place to enter a Long position. Especially after roughly a 50 point move in the S&P. I don't want to be Long or Short going into this weekend, though.
The future aint what it used to be - Yogi Berra

#5 draggen33

draggen33

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,047 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:05 PM

Looks like a classic momentum reversal to me. Usually very good place to enter a Long position. Especially after roughly a 50 point move in the S&P.

I don't want to be Long or Short going into this weekend, though.

These guys are idiots im out!!!!!!!

#6 einscodek

einscodek

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 382 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:15 PM

Only for a day more..

#7 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,504 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:18 PM

The fiscal cliff is a sideshow and excuse or cover up to the weakening earnings. It will be blamed for the January decline because it is a fixable issue, the earnings growth is NOT. The market has been in a downtrend since September and people remain in complete denial. Hopefully, the next decline until early February will be able to break the perma bulls before the beginning of a new cyclical rally into 2013. However, there are critical levels down below that should not be violated, otherwise we may be entering into a new bear market. For now, I am simply riding a down trend from my short entry at 1445 and hedge time to time the oversold market and keep the core short position. Happy new year everyone!

Edited by arbman, 27 December 2012 - 11:19 PM.


#8 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 28 December 2012 - 01:05 AM

Bought some today and will likely buy some more tomorrow. Holding a tight stop of course since the NYSI is falling and while I don't pay much attention to E-wave counts (there are just so many of them in all kinds of directions), gemx, who at least seems to get the direction right more often than not, is looking for a weak 5th wave decline tomorrow for a buying opportunity. Now what I do pay attention to, besides the McClellans, is consecutive days down and anytime there three in a row on the Naz Comp one ought to pay attention (witness the sprightly reversal today from the lows) and when there are four consecutive days down (such as today), that's one of the best arrows in my quiver no matter what. Besides, as J.P. Morgan famously said: "The McClellan Oscillator will fluctuate." And it's down four days in a row too. So, buying this dip? Sho' nuff! P.S. We're talking swing trading here, right? Not buying and holding until Ashley Judd pitches Mitch off his Kentucky throne and finally straightens all this crap out, right?

Edited by diogenes227, 28 December 2012 - 01:07 AM.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#9 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,087 posts

Posted 28 December 2012 - 01:23 AM

P.S. We're talking swing trading here, right? Not buying and holding until Ashley Judd pitches Mitch off his Kentucky throne and finally straightens all this crap out, right?


Absolutely. Buying with a SL and trailing with a TSL (or taking technical exits or profit based exits). Definitely not buy and hold.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#10 bigbud

bigbud

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 532 posts

Posted 28 December 2012 - 04:35 AM

possible death-cross in DOW just ~1 week away, and been ~250 days since the golden cross. So a death-cross is likely this winter, and weakness/sell-off often comes with it. Also the danger of a lower shoulder. My cycle work projects weakness this winter/spring. So I dont buy this dip. My own market in Norway also shows weakness, that says this is not a trustworthy rally.