145 replies to this topic

[tria]

Tria, what methods are you using to make your predictions?

Weakness to week's end was expected and the 1635 area to be tested. This came just in time.

Weakness should end very soon. I will buy back today the NUGT position that I sold a few days ago, and maybe add more on Monday.

-tria

A combination of things Russ but mainly and in no particular order, EW counting, Eric Hadik's cycle analysis, Astro stuff, the O.I. data, the Gold Diffusion Index and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Long & Short As A % of Open Interest as presented by Eric De Groot.
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.gr/
I also follow Silver's contango which has been widening recently and is not so good for an immediate bullish resolution as of now.
Finally I pay my homage to Pythia, the Oracle of Delphy every other weekend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythia

-tria

[beta]

Here's another GLD wave count below, based on 3-3-5.

AF's count suggests that the lesser degrees waves of "1-2" of W5 is already underway (and "C" could extend down to 1560-1570).

By comparison, this alt count would strongly imply that we have completed Major 3, and minor wave 1 of Major 5 is not yet underway:

http://stockcharts.c...57343209124.png

Edited by beta, 04 January 2013 - 06:54 PM.

[tria]

I am sure many of us remember SilentOne (John) and his accurate Hurst cyclical analysis here but in the Fearless Forcasters section. Below is his latest on Gold.

From SilentOne
http://sentienttrade...ng-term-cycles/

-tria

[Russ]

Tria, what methods are you using to make your predictions?

Weakness to week's end was expected and the 1635 area to be tested. This came just in time.

Weakness should end very soon. I will buy back today the NUGT position that I sold a few days ago, and maybe add more on Monday.

-tria

A combination of things Russ but mainly and in no particular order, EW counting, Eric Hadik's cycle analysis, Astro stuff, the O.I. data, the Gold Diffusion Index and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Long & Short As A % of Open Interest as presented by Eric De Groot.
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.gr/
I also follow Silver's contango which has been widening recently and is not so good for an immediate bullish resolution as of now.
Finally I pay my homage to Pythia, the Oracle of Delphy every other weekend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythia

-tria

Very complicated analysis I can see, thought it would be. Pythia is interesting, I am not sure if you are joking about it but I have had some experiences with psychics at a university, the world is not as it seems as Robert Jahn and Dean Radin have shown.

Cheers to you. Russ

[dharma]

exactly russ. the world looks to be heading in a direction and that direction will take shape. however , the end result will be different than the powers that be hoped for. there will be many natural catastrophes along the way as well. in the past i have pointed to the bonds topping process. it is a huge top. and it is taking time to form. many have been corralled into bonds. in these times yield is important , but overstated. i guess if you need yield to live , then its hardly overstated. bulliard as one fed member has said, the fed will not exit . and this is i believe to be the case. they cant exit . they are currently buying a huge % of the newly issued bonds. when the bonds finally top, there will be those who go down w/the ship and others will seek other greener pastures. some of that money will find its way into pms. its a very small sector. it wont time much to ignite a big fire. and i believe its a big part of the process. dont look for volker to reincarnate. besides it wasnt his heroics that ended the gold bull. i am a gann trader,. gann had a 5 yr cycle. i have not found evidence of that in gold. or @least clear evidence. cycles need to reassert themselves as the 21-22 month cycle has done. since 01 when the dollar was in the 120s, the dollar has been in a bear market. currencies go into a trend for a very long time. i see no evidence that the dollar bear is ending. you cant look @ daily charts and draw conclusions on this one. you have to step way back its clear to me there are other factors @play here. there is downside pressure. it does not go away. so , the pms are going to bottom. there are a few phases to the bull left to unfold. dharma

[dharma]

here is the hulbert gold sentiment chart
http://www.graceland...013jan8hul1.png
the whole purpose of qe is to reflate the banks. if they continue to go higher(bank stocks) , it is an indicator that reflation is taking place.
hourly divergences on gdx. gdx lower than last low today. gld not. we are in bottoming action. lets see if this actually leads to the bottom. of this correction
dharma

[stubaby]

the whole purpose of qe is to reflate the banks. if they continue to go higher(bank stocks) , it is an indicator that reflation is taking place.

dharma

Yep -

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BKX&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&i=p37412606824&a=259871912&r=1357662307276.png


stubaby

[dharma]

the banksters are in the process of reflating the world
in that theme, schenzo abe was just elected pm of japan, in his campaign and since his election, he has called on the boj to reflate. to print. to monetize
http://www.graceland...2013jan9yen.png
this is my concern in the short term. the dollar will strengthen as the yen takes it on the chin. the hoard will interpret this as gold bearish w/a rising dollar. so initially, i do think gold will go down, but then the smart money will come in. reflation is gold bullish. i am waiting on the buy, in no hurry . waiting for the market to sort out its malaise sentiment remains decidedly bearish.
i can wait
dharma

[dougie]

the yen move is overdone imo at least st, maybe it check out sentiment

[johngeorge]

Jan 10, 2013 From Zero Hedge: Chart Of The Day: Chinese November Gold Imports Soar To 91 Tons; 2012 Total 720 Tons