It certainly looks like it.
I would say this is textbook TA.
The Inverted H&Shoulder pattern is complete: The neckline has been broken, we have been down to test it and up again. today we had a new higher high and a new closing high. We also traded above the 50% retracement line. And the direction is now UP!
Not only did we have higher highs etc we also had an Islan Reversal in the shortest possible pullback (one day!)
Gold followed the same path. We closed above the most important 78,6% retracement level which was also a new CLOSING high
There are ewave counts (not mine) that say we are entering the 3rd wave, so this could be fun.
stig
Is this it?
Started by
Stickan
, Oct 24 2003 05:33 PM
6 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 24 October 2003 - 05:33 PM
#2
Posted 24 October 2003 - 07:37 PM
From your keyboard to God's computer monitor. I hope so.
I see no weakness anywhere in the chart for the HUI. Weekly or daily. Both look strong right now.
Right now being the operative words that they always are.
:::crossing fingers::::
Esther
When I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race. ~H.G. Wells
#3
Posted 24 October 2003 - 07:44 PM
There is a possibility that a mini inverted Head and Shoulders is in the making with a possible double top at 394 and then decline forming the right shoulder.
#4
Posted 24 October 2003 - 11:04 PM
I believe we go down to below 61 on the XAU and $328 on gold by end of November. We need a shake out to get this thing going again. I think you are deluding yourself.
sorry,
blustar
#5
Posted 25 October 2003 - 02:40 AM
Blustar,
I don't believe or hope. I am just looking at the facts. The models I showed are textbook examples of different patterns and these pattern have a history of higher prices when they occur. Hence, the probabillities are in favour of higher prices, so why "thinking" they will go lower?
What are your arguments for lower prices, except 'expecting' a shakeout?
stig
#6
Posted 25 October 2003 - 06:50 AM
In the simplest of T/A terms, which are the ones Iunderstand, higher volumn is confirming an uptrend. That is bullish.
#7
Posted 25 October 2003 - 07:30 AM
IMHO, one thing that can be very dangerous is arguing with an existing trend. Several technical items of relevance to add to Stig's analysis. 1) The $HUI P&F Chart issued a double top breakout this week (new buy signal), the price objective based off the P&F Chart is 248, 2) the break of the large ascending triangle pattern with $HUI still gives us an estimated target price of 230, 3) The $XAU P&F Chart is still in a buy configuration, 4) the most recent price pattern for $XAU was broken to the upside this week on expanded volume, as I noted in a previous post this pattern looked like a bullish flag pattern (continuation pattern), 5) Gold reversed its pattern on the P&F Chart by adding another column of Xs and is currently at a double top formation. A break to 396 issues another buy signal and break-out on the P&F Chart, 6) NEM broke above key resistance on the weekly chart and like Gold has added additional Xs in the P&F Chart. A touch of 43 will add another buy and break-out signal. The current price objective for NEM on the P&F Chart is 76, 7) indicators on the daily and weekly charts are not showing signs of any weakness at this point.
Until I see technical deterioration, the trend remains up. I like to take it day by day, pure meat and potatoes TA without trying to anticipate price movement too far into the future as anything can happen.
Good input from everyone, I enjoy seeing the various view points.
Regards.
Trade based on what you see happening, not what someone else thinks or hopes will happen.