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Expert's Predictions


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#1 stocks

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 04:44 PM

The best and most comprehensive study of expert judgment was performed by Philip Tetlock.

Over a span of almost 20 years, he interviewed 284 experts about their level of confidence that a certain outcome would come to pass. Forecasts were solicited across a wide variety of domains, including economics, politics, climate, military strategy, financial markets, legal opinions, and other complex domains with uncertain outcomes. In all, Tetlock accumulated an astounding 82,000 forecasts.


Conclusions:

Experts who appeared in the media most regularly were the least accurate

Experts with the most extreme views were also the least accurate


Experts exhibited higher forecast calibration outside of their field of expertise

Among all 284 experts, not one demonstrated forecast accuracy beyond random guesses


http://advisorperspe...Predictions.php

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If you don't allow people to suffer from the consequences of their actions, they become entitled.  They never grow up. This is the world we live in.


#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 06:41 PM

DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME! :lol:

Failed Predictions about the Future
http://www.oddee.com/item_96635.aspx

1. "It will be years --not in my time-- before a woman will become Prime Minister."
--Margaret Thatcher, October 26th, 1969.

2. “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
--Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

3. “That virus [HIV] is a pussycat.”
--Dr. Peter Duesberg, molecular-biology professor at U.C. Berkeley, 1988

4."Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy."
--Associates of Edwin L. Drake refusing his suggestion to drill for oil in 1859.

5.“A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.”
--New York Times, 1936.

6."Reagan doesn’t have that presidential look."
--United Artists Executive, rejecting Reagan as lead in 1964 film The Best Man

7."The singer [Mick Jagger] will have to go; the BBC won’t like him."
--- First Rolling Stones manager Eric Easton to his partner after watching them perform.

8.“Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.”
--Dr Dionysys Larder (1793-1859)

9.“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”
--Lord Kelvin, 1895.

10."There will never be a bigger plane built."
--A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people.

11."Taking the best left-handed pitcher in baseball and converting him into a right fielder is one of the dumbest things I ever heard."
-- Tris Speaker, baseball hall of famer, talking about Babe Ruth, 1919.

12."Ours has been the first [expedition], and doubtless to be the last, to visit this profitless locality."
---- Lt. Joseph Ives, after visiting the Grand Canyon in 1861.

13."If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one."
--W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954.

14."You better get secretarial work or get married."
--Emmeline Snively, advising would-be model Marilyn Monroe in 1944.

#3 stocks

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 07:39 AM

Henry Louis "H. L." Mencken (September 12, 1880 – January 29, 1956) was an American journalist, essayist, magazine editor, satirist, critic of American life and culture, and scholar of American English.[1] Known as the "Sage of Baltimore", he is regarded as one of the most influential American writers and prose stylists of the first half of the twentieth century.

The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

There is always an easy solution to every problem - neat, plausible, and wrong.

The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.

The only good bureaucrat is one with a pistol at his head. Put it in his hand and it's good-by to the Bill of Rights.

"The government consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something they can't get and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time is made good by looting A to satisfy B. In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods."

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If you don't allow people to suffer from the consequences of their actions, they become entitled.  They never grow up. This is the world we live in.


#4 voltaire

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 12:15 AM

Absolutely "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it." From that we got religion. "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed." Yep, the current leaders will destroy the USA, lol. "There is always an easy solution to every problem - neat, plausible, and wrong." I find it hard to argue against that! "The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos." Yeh, but some times his name is Adolf!

#5 stocks

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 06:22 AM

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

The political class shamelessly frightens and blackmails us at every turn, because we cave into their demands to protect their own power, perquisites and fiefdoms.

Look how easy it is. Consider City Hall, filled with overpaid people plotting their escape to fat pensions and lifetime healthcare coverage, and all they have to do to keep their share of declining tax revenue is close the libraries half the week and order the street repair crews to stand down and let the potholes multiple for a few weeks.

Voila, the taxpayers cave in and re-elect the scoundrels and wastrels, and vote in higher taxes to "save our libraries." Next time, why not ask how many cuts is City Hall taking? How many cuts to bloated pensions and healthcare benefits are being absorbed to save the libraries?

On the federal level

A 2% reduction in the Federal budget, we're told, will push orphans onto the frigid streets, send our troops into battle without ammo ("gee, Sarge, I coulda taken out that terrorist but we were only issued one clip this month"), and generally shut down every service the public cares about.

The alternative you will never hear about is a reduction in the multiple layers of overpaid bureaucrats in City Hall, the White House staff, the Pentagon, the local school district, etc., etc., etc., or any reduction in funding the parastic cartels that have captured the machinery of governance. Sickcare remains fully funded, of course, so the cartels can continue to feast on needless duplicative tests, medications that don't work as advertised, $70,000 biopsies, $100,000 hospital visits, and so on.



http://www.oftwomind...ckmail3-13.html

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If you don't allow people to suffer from the consequences of their actions, they become entitled.  They never grow up. This is the world we live in.


#6 stocks

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 05:54 AM

The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule it.

Australian academics: Democracy should be replaced by 'elite warrior leadership' in order to fight global warming


http://newnostradamu...acy-should.html

--

If you don't allow people to suffer from the consequences of their actions, they become entitled.  They never grow up. This is the world we live in.


#7 stocks

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Posted 01 April 2013 - 04:52 PM

There is always an easy solution to every problem - neat, plausible, and wrong.

Bogus Erin Brockovich

Time after time, cancer clusters have turned out to be statistical illusions—artifacts of chance.

… The Erin Brockovich incident, one of the most famous, is among the many that have been debunked. Hexavalent chromium in the water supply of a small California town was blamed for causing cancer, resulting in a $333 million legal settlement and a movie starring Julia Roberts. But an epidemiological study ultimately showed that the cancer rate was no greater than that of the general population. The rate was actually slightly less.


http://www.openmarke...rs-that-werent/

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If you don't allow people to suffer from the consequences of their actions, they become entitled.  They never grow up. This is the world we live in.


#8 stocks

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Posted 27 April 2013 - 09:48 AM

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman has spent his life studying human judgment
and decision-making. At 79, he is the author of the 2011 award-winning, best-selling book Thinking, Fast and Slow.


The illusion of skill..is deeply ingrained in the culture. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions – and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem – are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them.

We are prone to think that the world is more regular and predictable than it really is….The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation…Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable

Kahneman’s Nobel-winning work demonstrates that confidence levels have no connection to the truth. In his words:

Overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.



http://nofrakkingcon...ientists-think/

--

If you don't allow people to suffer from the consequences of their actions, they become entitled.  They never grow up. This is the world we live in.


#9 stocks

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 07:08 PM

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman has spent his life studying human judgment
and decision-making. At 79, he is the author of the 2011 award-winning, best-selling book Thinking, Fast and Slow.


The illusion of skill..is deeply ingrained in the culture. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions – and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem – are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them.

We are prone to think that the world is more regular and predictable than it really is….The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation…Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable

Kahneman’s Nobel-winning work demonstrates that confidence levels have no connection to the truth. In his words:

Overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.



http://nofrakkingcon...ientists-think/

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

HARD to think statistically

EASY to think associatively

We have EXCESS CONFIDENCE in what we think we know, and a deep, deep, deep inability to acknowledge our ignorance.

Humans DEVIATE from rational model with two major CORRUPTIONS:

01 Treat problems in isolation instead of as part of a systemic whole

02 Treat problems in relation to framing effects that distort perceptions with inconsequential trivia


Hypotheses should be confirmed by trying to REFUTE the hypothesis rather than by searching for additional supporting evidence.

The tendency to see patterns in randomness is overwhelming.

Illusion of control is increased by a failure to seek out data from others

Organizations that take the word of overconfident experts can expect costly consequences.

The author confirms Machiavelli 101--defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change [he does not say this but Kuhn and others do:
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes].



http://www.amazon.co...howViewpoints=0

--

If you don't allow people to suffer from the consequences of their actions, they become entitled.  They never grow up. This is the world we live in.


#10 jack

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 08:28 PM

The best and most comprehensive study of expert judgment was performed by Philip Tetlock.

Over a span of almost 20 years, he interviewed 284 experts about their level of confidence that a certain outcome would come to pass. Forecasts were solicited across a wide variety of domains, including economics, politics, climate, military strategy, financial markets, legal opinions, and other complex domains with uncertain outcomes. In all, Tetlock accumulated an astounding 82,000 forecasts.


Conclusions:

Experts who appeared in the media most regularly were the least accurate

Experts with the most extreme views were also the least accurate


Experts exhibited higher forecast calibration outside of their field of expertise

Among all 284 experts, not one demonstrated forecast accuracy beyond random guesses


http://advisorperspe...Predictions.php



As of yet I have not done the following but:

1 Every morning Throw a dart at a list of stocks.
2 Flip a coin. buy or sell
3 Wait 45 minutes
4 trade your way out of this particular paper bag.

After 20 trading days money management or lack there of should be apparent.