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#11 stocks

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Posted 28 July 2014 - 08:20 AM

3.) “I don’t understand how they can call me anti-Latino when I’ve made four movies in Mexico.” – former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ®

4.) “I cook occasionally just to see how easy women’s work is.” – former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill (D)

5.) “In Delaware, the largest growth of population is Indian Americans, moving from India. You cannot go to a 7/11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.” – Vice President Joe Biden (D)

9.) “I think incest can be handled as a family matter within the family.” – Arkansas Rep. Jay Dickey Jr. ®

12.) “I know what Victoria’s Secret is. She’s a slut.” – Wyoming Rep. Barbara Cubin ®

13.) “I am working for the time when unqualified blacks, browns and women join the unqualified men in running the government.” – Texas State Rep. Frances “Sissy” Farenthold (D)

14.) “I’m not against the blacks, and a lot of the good blacks will attest to that.”- Arizona Gov. Evan Mecham ®

17.) “My fear is that the whole island [of Guam] will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize.” – Georgia Rep. Hank Johnson (D)

18.) “I personally find the word ‘alien’ offensive when applied to individuals, especially to children. An alien to me is someone from outer space.” – Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson (D)


http://www.ijreview....olitician-ever/

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#12 stocks

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Posted 02 July 2015 - 06:05 PM

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

The political class shamelessly frightens and blackmails us at every turn, because we cave into their demands to protect their own power, perquisites and fiefdoms.

Ignorance breeds fear, and the fearful are risk-averse.

In modern life, politics and media emphasize risk in order to control or influence others. People who are easily scared and easily swayed are often just plain ignorant.

The result is a group of people desirous of state protection and dependency, leery of anything that creates uncertainty, danger, or risk.



http://junkscience.c...eir/#more-72759

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#13 stocks

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Posted 19 July 2015 - 08:20 AM

The best and most comprehensive study of expert judgment was performed by Philip Tetlock.

Conclusions:

Experts who appeared in the media most regularly were the least accurate

Experts with the most extreme views were also the least accurate

Experts exhibited higher forecast calibration outside of their field of expertise

Among all 284 experts, not one demonstrated forecast accuracy beyond random guesses

1996:

JK Rawling's first book "Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone" was submitted to twelve publishing houses, all of which rejected the manuscript.

2004

Forbes named Rowling as the first person to become a U.S.-dollar billionaire by writing books.


https://en.wikipedia...i/J._K._Rowling

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#14 stocks

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Posted 10 October 2015 - 12:14 PM

The best and most comprehensive study of expert judgment was performed by Philip Tetlock.

Conclusions:

Experts who appeared in the media most regularly were the least accurate

Experts with the most extreme views were also the least accurate


Experts exhibited higher forecast calibration outside of their field of expertise

Among all 284 experts, not one demonstrated forecast accuracy beyond random guesses


http://advisorperspe...Predictions.php


Philip Tetlock’s “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction”

Good Judgment Project, which pitted some 20,000 amateur forecasters against some of the most knowledgeable experts in the world.

The amateurs won — hands down.


The most careful, curious, open-minded, persistent and self-critical — as measured by a battery of psychological tests — did the best.

“What you think is much less important than how you think,” says Prof. Tetlock; superforecasters regard their views “as hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”

Most experts — like most people — “are too quick to make up their minds and too slow to change them,” he says. And experts are paid not just to be right, but to sound right: cocksure even when the evidence is sparse or ambiguous.


http://www.unz.com/i...-of-prediction/

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#15 stocks

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Posted 01 May 2016 - 12:39 PM

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman has spent his life studying human judgment

The illusion of skill..is deeply ingrained in the culture. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions – and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem – are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them.

Kahneman’s Nobel-winning work demonstrates that confidence levels have no connection to the truth. In his words:

Overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.




http://nofrakkingcon...ientists-think/

 

 

Yesterday's genius is today's fool

 

2004

 

Karl Rove directs George Bush campaign to victory.  Genius.

 

2012

 

Karl Rove completely wrong about the campaign outcome.  The man is a fool.

 

Nate Silver is a statistical genius.  Calls the 2014 election perfectly.

 

2015

 

Nate Silver says Trump is a sideshow.

 

2016

 

Nate Silver completely wrong about Trump.  The man is a fool.

 

 

 


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#16 stocks

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Posted 30 November 2016 - 08:23 PM

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman has spent his life studying human judgment

The illusion of skill..is deeply ingrained in the culture. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions – and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem – are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them.

We are prone to think that the world is more regular and predictable than it really is….The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation…Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable

Kahneman’s Nobel-winning work demonstrates that confidence levels have no connection to the truth. In his words:

Overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.

 

 

With 19 Days to Go, Clinton’s Lead Is Bigger Than Ever

 

Larry Sabato is one of the nation's most respected political scientists.

 

 

 

http://www.centerfor...gger-than-ever/


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#17 stocks

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Posted 18 December 2016 - 04:28 AM

SEPTEMBER 7, 2016

 

Mark Cuban Predicts a Stock Market Crash if Trump Wins the White House

 

 

NOVEMBER 2016

 

Trump wins, stock market explodes higher

 

 

 

http://fortune.com/2...iticizes-trump/

 

 

 

 

 

 


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#18 stocks

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Posted 15 February 2017 - 12:02 PM

"There's A Global Riot Against Psuedo-Experts" Nassim Taleb Exclaims 
 

After predicting the 2008 economic crisis, the Brexit vote, the U.S. presidential election and other events correctly, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Incerto series on global uncertainties, which includes The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, is seen as something of a maverick and an oracle. Equally, the economist-mathematician has been criticised for advocating a “dumbing down” of the economic system, and his reasoning for U.S. President Donald Trump and global populist movements. In an interview in Jaipur, Taleb explains why he thinks the world is seeing a “global riot against pseudo-experts”.

 
 

I prefer social media to interviews in the mainstream media as many journalists don’t do their research, and ‘zeitgeist’ updates [Top Ten lists] pass for journalism.

The media is not one organisation or a monolithic entity.

 
 
 
 
 

Well, I’m talking about the United States where I get more credible news from the social media than the mainstream media. But I am very impressed with the Indian media that seems to present both sides of the story. In the U.S., you only get either the official, bureaucratic or the academic side of the story.

 

http://www.zerohedge...-psuedo-experts

 


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