Expert's Predictions
#11
Posted 28 July 2014 - 08:20 AM
4.) “I cook occasionally just to see how easy women’s work is.” – former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill (D)
5.) “In Delaware, the largest growth of population is Indian Americans, moving from India. You cannot go to a 7/11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.” – Vice President Joe Biden (D)
9.) “I think incest can be handled as a family matter within the family.” – Arkansas Rep. Jay Dickey Jr. ®
12.) “I know what Victoria’s Secret is. She’s a slut.” – Wyoming Rep. Barbara Cubin ®
13.) “I am working for the time when unqualified blacks, browns and women join the unqualified men in running the government.” – Texas State Rep. Frances “Sissy” Farenthold (D)
14.) “I’m not against the blacks, and a lot of the good blacks will attest to that.”- Arizona Gov. Evan Mecham ®
17.) “My fear is that the whole island [of Guam] will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize.” – Georgia Rep. Hank Johnson (D)
18.) “I personally find the word ‘alien’ offensive when applied to individuals, especially to children. An alien to me is someone from outer space.” – Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson (D)
http://www.ijreview....olitician-ever/
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#12
Posted 02 July 2015 - 06:05 PM
Ignorance breeds fear, and the fearful are risk-averse.The political class shamelessly frightens and blackmails us at every turn, because we cave into their demands to protect their own power, perquisites and fiefdoms.The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
In modern life, politics and media emphasize risk in order to control or influence others. People who are easily scared and easily swayed are often just plain ignorant.
The result is a group of people desirous of state protection and dependency, leery of anything that creates uncertainty, danger, or risk.
http://junkscience.c...eir/#more-72759
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#13
Posted 19 July 2015 - 08:20 AM
1996:The best and most comprehensive study of expert judgment was performed by Philip Tetlock.
Conclusions:
Experts who appeared in the media most regularly were the least accurate
Experts with the most extreme views were also the least accurate
Experts exhibited higher forecast calibration outside of their field of expertise
Among all 284 experts, not one demonstrated forecast accuracy beyond random guesses
JK Rawling's first book "Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone" was submitted to twelve publishing houses, all of which rejected the manuscript.
2004
Forbes named Rowling as the first person to become a U.S.-dollar billionaire by writing books.
https://en.wikipedia...i/J._K._Rowling
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#14
Posted 10 October 2015 - 12:14 PM
The best and most comprehensive study of expert judgment was performed by Philip Tetlock.
Conclusions:
Experts who appeared in the media most regularly were the least accurate
Experts with the most extreme views were also the least accurate
Experts exhibited higher forecast calibration outside of their field of expertise
Among all 284 experts, not one demonstrated forecast accuracy beyond random guesses
http://advisorperspe...Predictions.php
Philip Tetlock’s “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction”
Good Judgment Project, which pitted some 20,000 amateur forecasters against some of the most knowledgeable experts in the world.
The amateurs won — hands down.
The most careful, curious, open-minded, persistent and self-critical — as measured by a battery of psychological tests — did the best.
“What you think is much less important than how you think,” says Prof. Tetlock; superforecasters regard their views “as hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
Most experts — like most people — “are too quick to make up their minds and too slow to change them,” he says. And experts are paid not just to be right, but to sound right: cocksure even when the evidence is sparse or ambiguous.
http://www.unz.com/i...-of-prediction/
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#15
Posted 01 May 2016 - 12:39 PM
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman has spent his life studying human judgment
The illusion of skill..is deeply ingrained in the culture. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions – and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem – are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them.
Kahneman’s Nobel-winning work demonstrates that confidence levels have no connection to the truth. In his words:
Overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.
http://nofrakkingcon...ientists-think/
Yesterday's genius is today's fool
2004
Karl Rove directs George Bush campaign to victory. Genius.
2012
Karl Rove completely wrong about the campaign outcome. The man is a fool.
Nate Silver is a statistical genius. Calls the 2014 election perfectly.
2015
Nate Silver says Trump is a sideshow.
2016
Nate Silver completely wrong about Trump. The man is a fool.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#16
Posted 30 November 2016 - 08:23 PM
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman has spent his life studying human judgment
The illusion of skill..is deeply ingrained in the culture. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions – and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem – are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them.
We are prone to think that the world is more regular and predictable than it really is….The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation…Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable
Kahneman’s Nobel-winning work demonstrates that confidence levels have no connection to the truth. In his words:
Overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.
With 19 Days to Go, Clinton’s Lead Is Bigger Than Ever
Larry Sabato is one of the nation's most respected political scientists.
http://www.centerfor...gger-than-ever/
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#17
Posted 18 December 2016 - 04:28 AM
Mark Cuban Predicts a Stock Market Crash if Trump Wins the White House
NOVEMBER 2016
Trump wins, stock market explodes higher
http://fortune.com/2...iticizes-trump/
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#18
Posted 15 February 2017 - 12:02 PM
After predicting the 2008 economic crisis, the Brexit vote, the U.S. presidential election and other events correctly, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Incerto series on global uncertainties, which includes The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, is seen as something of a maverick and an oracle. Equally, the economist-mathematician has been criticised for advocating a “dumbing down” of the economic system, and his reasoning for U.S. President Donald Trump and global populist movements. In an interview in Jaipur, Taleb explains why he thinks the world is seeing a “global riot against pseudo-experts”.
I prefer social media to interviews in the mainstream media as many journalists don’t do their research, and ‘zeitgeist’ updates [Top Ten lists] pass for journalism.
The media is not one organisation or a monolithic entity.
Well, I’m talking about the United States where I get more credible news from the social media than the mainstream media. But I am very impressed with the Indian media that seems to present both sides of the story. In the U.S., you only get either the official, bureaucratic or the academic side of the story.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#19
Posted 14 June 2017 - 01:53 PM
SEPTEMBER 7, 2016
Mark Cuban Predicts a Stock Market Crash if Trump Wins the White House
The pattern is much the same as it has been in every election since 2000: In states where younger white people can better afford to buy a home, they are more likely to be married, have more children, and vote more Republican. In states where whites are less able to afford a home, they marry later, have fewer children, and vote more Democratic. …
Trump won the 22 states with the cheapest homes, and 26 of the 27 least costly states. Conversely, Hillary Clinton carried 15 of the 16 states with the most expensive housing. …
http://www.unz.com/i...e-21st-century/
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.