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The Rodney Dangerfield of analogs


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#1 securelstmile

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 03:14 PM

I posted this before back in Jan...no love...where is the love people?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...amp;a=286149839
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#2 jjc

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 03:45 PM

I like it, I am expecting higher on the monthly. I will be very surprized if we don't crest above the Oct 2007 highs; your analog projects that high. The volume also has a nice matching analog. but- From my counts: I need March to trade below Feb's highs in order to put the next peak into April.

#3 securelstmile

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 03:53 PM

I like it,
I am expecting higher on the monthly. I will be very surprized if we don't crest above the Oct 2007 highs; your analog projects that high.
The volume also has a nice matching analog.

but-
From my counts: I need March to trade below Feb's highs in order to put the next peak into April.


My count and internal work says after this top we don't go below 1470. I expect the 89 analog to take hold after this one runs out. Just what I see based on many things.
The harder I work, the luckier I get.

#4 arbman

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 09:03 PM

Per the 50 week dominant cycle, this is pretty likely. I also expect higher in March before the top of this rally. The fireworks phase basically. Hitting 1530 first made the decline all so dramatic. But it also proves that this market can spike irrationally higher too and most likely it will before this is over...

#5 Echo

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 10:54 PM

Check out analog to late April 2010 falling off the NSYI ledge. Doc

#6 q4wer

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Posted 23 February 2013 - 11:34 PM

Check out analog to late April 2010 falling off the NSYI ledge.

Doc


Hi Echo, what does your Hurst cycle say these days? Similarity to April of 2010 is that the earth was hit by meteorites, is there anything else? Nevertheless we will crash soon or later, oh yeah , it could be just next week.

#7 arbman

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 12:01 AM

Doc, It is not even technically looking possible yet in my opinion. This 2010 scenario could only happen if Fed had already signaled that it won't be buying in a month. This is not the case, any selling is eventually offset by Fed's $80-85B per month purchases. We barely had the first 2% pull back after over a month of advance without one. It seems impossible to crash to me without at least 2-3 2% up and down days first. If they come next week, I will start paying more attention... There is not enough evidence though, btw the commodities nicely corrected much more, there is no inflation pressures to what Fed is currently doing...

Edited by arbman, 24 February 2013 - 12:03 AM.


#8 Echo

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 01:53 AM

q4, Arbs,

I drew this up for a friend today. SC subs should be able to see it easily. I will share it with the board. There are a couple of times in recent history that after a sustained uptrend, the mco oscillated at the zero line creating a ledge on the summation NYSI. We then fell off that ledge.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...3&listNum=9

I think the chart speaks for itself, but I will add that if the April 2010 scenario holds, watch out if both the SPX 21e and the NYAD 19e breaks together. There is the potential for a fast and swift drop. An alternate scenario is the tsunami dip in March 2011.


doc

#9 andr99

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 04:31 AM

I posted this before back in Jan...no love...where is the love people?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...amp;a=286149839



congrats to you........really cool seeing it in Jan. I saw it just a few days ago and posted here under the title ''sp projection''.
As you can see I expect the same as you

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/8j9vb

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#10 arbman

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 04:38 AM

I think a drop to 1470s is a possibility to test the break out neck line and reset the breadth oscillators. So, I can definitely think of a deeper pull back next week, but find it less likely scenario, maybe more sideways... I have roughly zero percent odds to decline below 1470s... Unless we get some extreme event... Of course...