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The Rodney Dangerfield of analogs


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#11 hawkeyefan

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 08:05 AM

q4, Arbs,

I drew this up for a friend today. SC subs should be able to see it easily. I will share it with the board. There are a couple of times in recent history that after a sustained uptrend, the mco oscillated at the zero line creating a ledge on the summation NYSI. We then fell off that ledge.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...3&listNum=9

I think the chart speaks for itself, but I will add that if the April 2010 scenario holds, watch out if both the SPX 21e and the NYAD 19e breaks together. There is the potential for a fast and swift drop. An alternate scenario is the tsunami dip in March 2011.


doc



Doesn't Hurst cycles call for a 40 week low in three to six weeks?

#12 securelstmile

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 09:45 AM

q4, Arbs,

I drew this up for a friend today. SC subs should be able to see it easily. I will share it with the board. There are a couple of times in recent history that after a sustained uptrend, the mco oscillated at the zero line creating a ledge on the summation NYSI. We then fell off that ledge.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...3&listNum=9

I think the chart speaks for itself, but I will add that if the April 2010 scenario holds, watch out if both the SPX 21e and the NYAD 19e breaks together. There is the potential for a fast and swift drop. An alternate scenario is the tsunami dip in March 2011.


doc



Thanks Doc, 2010 is a possibility as is anything. I am always open to all the possibilities but I have other things that point to us not seeing a major decline until much later this year. My tick analysis shared on my blog is one but there are others as well. But the market is fluid and I never marry an analog and always have a few in the wings in case things change.

If this is 2010 by my look at trin and nymo this is last Wednesday. You can see we would still see a new high.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...amp;a=293951338

Thanks for your point of view. It is always valuable to me.
The harder I work, the luckier I get.

#13 securelstmile

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 10:00 AM

q4, Arbs,

I drew this up for a friend today. SC subs should be able to see it easily. I will share it with the board. There are a couple of times in recent history that after a sustained uptrend, the mco oscillated at the zero line creating a ledge on the summation NYSI. We then fell off that ledge.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...3&listNum=9

I think the chart speaks for itself, but I will add that if the April 2010 scenario holds, watch out if both the SPX 21e and the NYAD 19e breaks together. There is the potential for a fast and swift drop. An alternate scenario is the tsunami dip in March 2011.


doc



Thanks Doc, 2010 is a possibility as is anything. I am always open to all the possibilities but I have other things that point to us not seeing a major decline until much later this year. My tick analysis shared on my blog is one but there are others as well. But the market is fluid and I never marry an analog and always have a few in the wings in case things change.

If this is 2010 by my look at trin and nymo this is last Wednesday. You can see we would still see a new high.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...amp;a=293951338

Thanks for your point of view. It is always valuable to me.



One more look with 21 ema tick.

Note that 2010 tick also rocketed higher but fell off way before the flash crash.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...amp;a=293951338

Present day, we haven't seen that yet.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...amp;a=293951338
The harder I work, the luckier I get.

#14 securelstmile

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 10:16 AM

I posted this before back in Jan...no love...where is the love people?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...amp;a=286149839



congrats to you........really cool seeing it in Jan. I saw it just a few days ago and posted here under the title ''sp projection''.
As you can see I expect the same as you

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/8j9vb



Thank you. Yes, I think I posted this a few times.

No response, sigh. B)
The harder I work, the luckier I get.

#15 DrSP

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 11:23 AM

I posted this before back in Jan...no love...where is the love people?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...amp;a=286149839



congrats to you........really cool seeing it in Jan. I saw it just a few days ago and posted here under the title ''sp projection''.
As you can see I expect the same as you

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/8j9vb



Thank you. Yes, I think I posted this a few times.

No response, sigh. B)


Does the analog hold good, if you use weekly and monthly charts? I think that is important for the context because there is a difference in how the weekly and monthly internals/ externals are behaving in the 2 time periods you are comparing. Since this is your thread, I will let you tell us if the same analog holds good when viewed from the weekly and monthly context. TIA.
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#16 opinionated

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 11:46 AM

Just wanted to say thanks to all the really rair TA in this thread. You people are not good fades and it's very nice to hear/see your thoughts. Best O

#17 securelstmile

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 12:23 PM

I posted this before back in Jan...no love...where is the love people?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...amp;a=286149839



congrats to you........really cool seeing it in Jan. I saw it just a few days ago and posted here under the title ''sp projection''.
As you can see I expect the same as you

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/8j9vb



Thank you. Yes, I think I posted this a few times.

No response, sigh. B)



Does the analog hold good, if you use weekly and monthly charts? I think that is important for the context because there is a difference in how the weekly and monthly internals/ externals are behaving in the 2 time periods you are comparing. Since this is your thread, I will let you tell us if the same analog holds good when viewed from the weekly and monthly context. TIA.



Well suffice it to say weekly closing ticks have been quite fascinating to me. Not only have we not seen a negative closing weekly tick, we haven't seen a weekly closing tick under 500 so far this year.
The harder I work, the luckier I get.

#18 IYB

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 03:42 PM

q4, Arbs,

I drew this up for a friend today. SC subs should be able to see it easily. I will share it with the board. There are a couple of times in recent history that after a sustained uptrend, the mco oscillated at the zero line creating a ledge on the summation NYSI. We then fell off that ledge.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...3&listNum=9

I think the chart speaks for itself, but I will add that if the April 2010 scenario holds, watch out if both the SPX 21e and the NYAD 19e breaks together. There is the potential for a fast and swift drop. An alternate scenario is the tsunami dip in March 2011.


doc

Thanks VM Doc. And if anyone is interested in a very close-up comparison of that time period to exactly right now in terms of market internals NYMO, NAMO, NYSI, NASI, BPCOMPQ, TRIN, TRINQ, VIX, VXN and SPX:CPCE, here is a study I posted yesterday at SevenSentinels.com. - specifically comparing Friday's close to 4-29-2010. Good trading, D

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2010-01-29&en=2010-04-29&i=p13664628170&a=293882449&r=30.png
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p74048922913&a=293790451&r=545.png

Edited by IYB, 24 February 2013 - 03:47 PM.

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#19 CLK

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 06:20 PM

If this is not a top, the market will make new highs this week, more time than that, then some magnitude of top is here. No need to be early here.

#20 thespookyone

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 07:15 PM

A consideration, Doc, fwiw. This ledge may, in its entirety turn out to be an inverted one-which would signal a last run to a higher high before any meaningfull correction (I'm not saying the small drop here is over, I don't beliueve it to be.) Some considerations that would support this take being the height of summation, the lack of damage to the 5 and 10 percent indicators relative to depth-and the way the volume MCO's show the selling hasn't got much steam. This would coincide with what "my stuff" is saying. Just a thought... securelstmile-Your work is some of the best here-truly enjoyed your blog as well-much love and praise, from my corner!

Edited by thespookyone, 24 February 2013 - 07:23 PM.