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What does 2/26/13 have in common with 9/3/29?


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#1 Kimston

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 10:00 PM

Obviously the digits shown for both dates total up to 41. What more do you need to know? Actually, the number 41 has nothing to do with my analysis. However the Feb 26/27 area is the next turn window based on a logarithmic time expansion from the 9/3/29 top. I've been stopped out a few times trying to short what I think is an important topping process since mid Sep 2012 (as posted in another thread). The mid-Sep timing has proven important in the NDX and COMPQ, but most major indexes have sailed past their Sep peaks. After doing more research on this late Feb 2013 timing and the expansion series from 1929, I think I understand what the market has been waiting for and why earlier tops and corrections were short-lived. This expansion series from 1929 picked the 8/25/87 top (to the day) and a number of other major swing highs and lows between 1929 and now. That alone may not be enough to base a trading decision on, but there is quite a confluence of other timing projections that point to the same late Feb 2013 window. Frankly most projections point to 2/27 and others point to 2/26/13. IF this turn window is correct, I'm guessing the market will print its intraday high for the current bull phase on one of those two dates. I'm favoring the 27th a bit, though the 26th is a Tuesday which is a more common day for reversals. For example, 9/3/29 and 8/25/87 were both Tuesdays. There are a few minor harmonics that point to March 4/5 area, so I suppose the market could chop around for 4 or 5 trading days past 2/27, but I wouldn't think there should be a significant advance after 2/27. Price-wise I have a few projections to 1533/1534 area basis SP nearby continuous futures contract. If it punches through there by much, I suppose it could try for the obvious projections to 1555-1561 area but I think this is less likely. The potential set-up I'm looking at here is more focused on timing projections than price projections. My plan is to get short via a combination of futures and long SDS calls (Sep and Dec expiration). Stops will be figured out when I see where the market goes into Tues/Wed. If we fail to make new highs next week, I'll probably put on a smaller position than I'm otherwise planning to. If the 8/25/87 top is full circle from 9/3/29 top, then this late Feb window is squaring that circle. There is geometry all through the markets in case you weren't aware of it. There are any number of possibilities that may unfold after this confluence window: a) the market ignores this timing confluence and keeps on going up, B) the market turns down and does one of its little pullbacks that brings out all the buy-the-dippers that have had their way for a long time now, and the market then takes another leg up into May where there is another timing confluence that may mark the end of the bull since 2009 low, c) the market turns down for a reasonably innocuous looking correction followed by a 50-70% retracement which then rolls over into a wave of highly motivated selling that climaxes around 4/24/13 (ref 1929 and 1987). d) the market turns down with a scary sell-off, but rallies back to near the highs and starts a slow grind down before more significant declines happen later in the year (ref 2000 and 2007). I'm leaning toward c or d as being most probable, but I'm fully aware that virtually anything is possible. DYODD. If I find some time in the next few days, I'll see if I can post a chart or two with some analysis I posted on my private blog last week. I think it's very possible the music stops on or near 2/27/13. I recommend finding a chair pretty soon if it does. Kimston

#2 Ken

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 11:20 AM

Hi Kimston, You had Feb 26/27 as the next turn window. The Dow hit a 4 year high on Feb 25th so is that within your logarithmic time expansion for a decline going forward or is it too early? Today is Feb 26th and as I write this the S&P 500 is basically flat and the DOW is positive but only by 0.43%.

#3 Kimston

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 10:58 PM

Hi Kimston,

You had Feb 26/27 as the next turn window. The Dow hit a 4 year high on Feb 25th so is that within your logarithmic time expansion for a decline going forward or is it too early? Today is Feb 26th and as I write this the S&P 500 is basically flat and the DOW is positive but only by 0.43%.



Ken,

The log expansion series from 1929 was projected for 2/26/12; other less important timing projections were pointing to 2/27/12. The new intraday high on the DJIA on the 25th is within one day, so I'm leaning toward the idea the top is in. I think if the major indices are trading lower any time on 3/1/13 than today's low (or tomorrow's low if it's lower than today), then it's probably batten down the hatches time. As mentioned in the original post on this thread, I have a few timing projections in the Mar 4/5 area, so I wouldn't rule that out as a potential high or low. Actually, I wouldn't rule anything out because anything is possible. What is probable in my analysis is that the markets are topping. It's entirely possible within that context that the market holds up until May before breaking down in subsequent months. If trading options, always buy much more time than you think you need.

Kimston.

#4 Kimston

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:48 PM

Putting on some Sep and Jan SDS calls with SPX in the 1519 area. Will wait for break under 2/26/13 low to get more aggressive with shorting. Kimston

#5 Kimston

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 08:01 PM

Typo - The comment above "The log expansion series from 1929 was projected for 2/26/12; other less important timing projections were pointing to 2/27/12" should be 2/26 & 2/27 2013 of course.

#6 opinionated

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 08:50 PM

Wow, If your correct this is some great work sir! Either way I respect your work, and when I get to my desk Im going to print this out. Right now Im on a smart phone and my eyes hurt. Just wanted to say thanks for sharing. Good trades O

#7 rotrot

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 09:14 AM

XII...Institutional Index is just about there... B)

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