42 replies to this topic

[tomterrific14]

Here is the analogy I'm looking at.

Heres is my LT and IT view, based in part on the below 2 year chart of the NYA.

http://bigcharts.mar.../...p;x=85&y=14

We are in wave 3, about to enter corrective wave 4, upon which completion will begin wave 5 to reach the objective of 10,500 (width of base 8500-6500=2000 +8500=10,500).

The objective of wave 3 has about been reached. (measured from the inverted H&S and Jan. gap measurements of Sep to Jan 2013 time frame.....8500=7850=650+ 8500=9050 and the gap measuement from the Jan. breakaway gap for same price objective....near term gap measurement allows for 9150 (8925-8700=225 +8925=9150)...extreme possibilty is 9300 ( a "U" meaurement of the breakout from the Feb high (9000-8700=300 +9000=9300 and SPX 1575)

Two measured move counts for wave 3 have been reached. ( distance from Oct 2011 low to Mar 2012 Top added to Jun 2012 low =9100 and distance Jun 2012 low added to Sep 2012 Top added to the Nov 2012 low =9100)

For the SPX, similar objectives for wave 3 are 1578 to an extreme 1599.41, with measured move counts of 1570-1610.

Once wave 3 completes, corrective wave 4 should test the Jan 2013 gap (NYA 8575-8450 and SPX 1450-1425.

Whether there will be a wave 5, depends on whether the Oct 2012 lows hold, (NYA 7850 and SPX 1350).

All that is needed for a corrective wave 4 to begin is a break of the Nov 2012 to now uptrend line on NYA and SPX.

[ogm]

I hope my conspiracy theory on the "sequestration manipulation" is wrong.
It involves maximum pain intentionally caused for maximum blame.

See: Des Moines Register, October 2012
"So when you combine the tax cuts expiring, the sequester in place, we’re going to be in a position where I believe in the first six months we are going to solve that big piece of business. It will probably be messy. It won’t be pleasant."

There could be no better "optics" than a 2% sequester causing a falling stock market and a peaking economy.

How does the conspiracy work ? Not sure I understand this exactly. I do think we haven't seen the last of the economic effects of the sequester and tax hikes.

That said I think the break-up of the Euro is probably going to be the most damaging thing for the market, when it finally happens. Has a potential to throw the whole system into a massive turmoil. And the Fed is just about out of tools.

Euro is unsustainable as a currency, no matter what Draghi says. Italy, Spain, Greece, France will never be able to repay the debt if they are unable to print their own currency. Not in the face of cheap competition from Asia that is costing the western world their jobs. Southern Europe population is getting impoverished at the expense of Germany. The social unrest will get worse and eventually lead to the point that either Germany or Italy/Spain/Greece will exit the Euro. I don't see how it can be otherwise. 25% of German population already support the return to DM. Italian elections also show the social mood in Italy is getting worse. European imbalances can't be solved while euro is around.

I think the question is when, not if. May take a while. The global economic fallout will be massive.

[Data]

Japan devalued the yen against the other currencies in 95-98. It was by about 40%. China matched the BOJ on that one. This move has been much faster and unmatched by PBOC. People are looking for a top because almost all metrics are approaching bull market norms for tops. The length of time for the bull run. The breadth. The deviation from norms for prices (50d MA and 200d MA).

Edited by Data, 16 March 2013 - 10:04 AM.

[fib_1618]

High summations do indicate momentum in internals, and as any momentum it has to weaken first before it kicks in the opposite direction.
Second derivative isn't an insulting term, just a mathematical one Summations are a very valuable technical tool, I always knew that. But they are still based on breadth.
And breadth is starting to noticeably under perform, I'm sure you're not going to argue that. MCO is obviously getting weaker, % of stocks above various moving averages, Bullish % indexes, etc. The rally is losing steam and broad support in internals.

Now we may differ in opinion if it re-accelerates upwards or keeps getting worse, which may lead to summations completely rolling over eventually (several days of negative breadth would do the trick) ... but that's a different story.

I guess you didn't read the whole thread...your concept of these indicators continues to be misguided.

CLK, What happened to the data before 100 years? Also, apparently isn't this whole rally based on the "thrust" from 2010, according to Fib?

Brought to you by the person who believes that the McClellan Oscillator is somehow a MACD indicator.

1) Advance/decline data only goes back to 1926 when this information was first being collected.

2) Yes, the entire advancing price sequence had its start from the 2009/2010 intermediate term breadth thrust.

You can laugh and roll your eyes all you want, but current market levels were indeed forecasted with this same information back when very few thought it possible to do so.

Fib

[CLK]

I'd rather just let price mainly pick my tops for me, I could miss the first 1.5-2%, I might get whipsawed, but I doubt it. From here on out the rest of the year I would not expect more than 5-7% corrections. I want to short a down move that means something, not a dip that looks like it might turn into something but then goes back up in a few days. There is worth in frontrunning, if the dip does not pan out your stop margin is better. If I do decide to frontrun, I have to see a topping formation first. Internals topping divergences are important, but don't mean much until price starts confirming.

Edited by CLK, 16 March 2013 - 10:24 AM.

[ogm]

High summations do indicate momentum in internals, and as any momentum it has to weaken first before it kicks in the opposite direction.
Second derivative isn't an insulting term, just a mathematical one Summations are a very valuable technical tool, I always knew that. But they are still based on breadth.
And breadth is starting to noticeably under perform, I'm sure you're not going to argue that. MCO is obviously getting weaker, % of stocks above various moving averages, Bullish % indexes, etc. The rally is losing steam and broad support in internals.

Now we may differ in opinion if it re-accelerates upwards or keeps getting worse, which may lead to summations completely rolling over eventually (several days of negative breadth would do the trick) ... but that's a different story.

I guess you didn't read the whole thread...your concept of these indicators continues to be misguided.

I read the whole thread. Its not misguided, I understand the math behind it, Its a slow second derivative. Its valuable, but not infallible.

Faster measures of internals momentum are indicating weakness.

I think you're being to dogmatic about the summations.
Ii'm just curious... what did summations tell you on this chart ? If you disregard what transpired later of course.

[DrSP]

Brought to you by the person who believes that the McClellan Oscillator is somehow a MACD indicator.

For rest of the sane world except you, NYMO apparently is a MACD of NYAD . http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA...amp;a=282640969

http://en.wikipedia....llan_oscillator

I am out of this "breadth" discussion because I would like to spend rest of my weekend with normal people.

[fib_1618]

I understand the math behind it, Its a slow second derivative.

You're still not "getting it". You may want to reread the thread.

See you in April.

Fib

[PrintFaster]

I say there is no chance for a top here.

The record high is pulling SPY up like a magnet.

Especially with financials such as WFC breaking out to 52-week highs on above average volume.

Wells Fargo Breakout

[Rogerdodger]

How does the conspiracy work ? Not sure I understand this exactly. I do think we haven't seen the last of the economic effects of the sequester and tax hikes.

"They" obviously want it to hurt in the most visible way possible.
”I’m not here to scare people,” Napolitano said. “If people are scared, it’s because the full impact of this is finally being made evident. And so people now are saying, oh my gosh, what do I need to do?”
In October, POTUS opined about the tax increases coupled with the sequester to produce "The Grand Bargain": "It won’t be pleasant."
Sequester will cost 170 million people their jobs...

It will be important to be able to say : "See! Tax cuts are bad. Government spending is good. Soaking the productive in society is good for everybody."

The stock market is an obvious tool.
So, we shall see. I hope I'm just nuts.

Enough said. Probably too much.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 March 2013 - 12:06 PM.