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Internals... Now why on earth would anyone short this wonder rally ?


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#21 PrintFaster

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 10:50 AM

Best thing to do is wait and see what FXI and ILF do, both have been weak lately.

Bears might have a chance at a correction here if these two keep going down.

World Index Charts

Edited by PrintFaster, 16 March 2013 - 10:53 AM.


#22 PrintFaster

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 10:56 AM

Apple about ready to turn back up on the monthly?

If so, will the Nasdaq catch up to the Dow?

AAPL Monthly

#23 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 11:05 AM

Can't see the forest for the trees? Pretty obvious signs of weakness on Friday. So-called internals have evidently been weak for some time now, I don't follow them so I wouldn't know more than what I read here. Here's a couple of examples as plain as the nose on your face on Friday. #1 Nasdaq Outside Reversal on BLOWOUT VOLUME #2 SOX Gap down to Weekly Closing Low on 2X the daily volume of any day last week. And I could go on from there, but I have a forecast to prepare...
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#24 ogm

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 11:15 AM

I understand the math behind it, Its a slow second derivative.

You're still not "getting it". You may want to reread the thread.

See you in April.

Fib



Yes, Fib. I'm "getting it". Your point is that risk/reward favors not being short here until the downtrend is established. From my point of view the weight of evidence is strongly shifting in favor of market weakness developing from here.
Sorry to have bothered you :)

Edited by ogm, 16 March 2013 - 11:17 AM.


#25 ogm

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 11:20 AM

Apple about ready to turn back up on the monthly?

If so, will the Nasdaq catch up to the Dow?

AAPL Monthly


Or another way to look at it... the market has ran out of things to buy, so they are buying the last stock on earth that everyone has thrown out the window while there were other things to buy. Now AAPL looks cheap, comparing to everything else that ran up in price to obscene levels. I'd still be very cautious on AAPL, there are reasons it got thrown out the window and those reasons aren't like to go away anytime soon, even if the stock bounces a bit.

#26 andr99

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 11:29 AM

How can anyone think this market isn't going to go up every day for the foreseeable future ?

In one of the threads a couple days ago I said something like "internals aren't there anymore" .... I meant it.

Breadth continues deteriorating as the market advances. Each spike made on a progressively lower breadth.

Leadership has narrowed significantly. Sure, summations are still high, but summations are slow moving indicator. A second derivative of breadth. Breadth > MCO > Summations.

Here are all of them + stocks above 50 DMA ... I think its self evident here.


Posted Image


from a low in october 1999 to a high in march 2000, the nasdaq almost doubled its value. How bad were the internals along the way ? How overbought were all the so called indicators ? When they pump, they pump regardless of internals and whatever else. This time in any case they won' t lead markets to the moon like they did to the nasdaq in 1999.


BTW...........I think there are many that are aware of a possible top coming soon, but it's the word soon that makes difference. If you manage futures/options, being short just a few days in advance makes you go broken

Edited by andr99, 16 March 2013 - 11:32 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#27 CLK

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 11:37 AM

Can't see the forest for the trees?

Pretty obvious signs of weakness on Friday. So-called internals have evidently been weak for some time now, I don't follow them so I wouldn't know more than what I read here.

Here's a couple of examples as plain as the nose on your face on Friday.

#1 Nasdaq Outside Reversal on BLOWOUT VOLUME

#2 SOX Gap down to Weekly Closing Low on 2X the daily volume of any day last week.

And I could go on from there, but I have a forecast to prepare...




Sept. 21 was about the same volume and an opex as well, it marked a top, so you could be right,
not sure I want to frontrun through another 3-4 weeks of chop like it did then though, minimum,
I think we get 2 weeks of it at least, money still can be made as the swings are wide, that is
if it is a top and doesn't continue higher.
The difference on the 21st is that COMPQ was up while SPX and INDU were down, Friday, all three were down.

I don't think SOX means much, the sector is not as important anymore, plenty times the SOX has turned down for months while SPX
kept going much higher.

#28 tomterrific14

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 11:54 AM

"The simplified formula for determining the oscillator is:



The McClellan summation index (MSI) is calculated by adding each day's McClellan oscillator to the previous day's summation index.

By using the summation index of the mcclellan oscillator, you can judge the markets overall bullishness or bearishness.

MSI properties

above zero it is considered to be bullish (positive growth)
below zero it is considered to be bearish (negative growth)
The Summation Index is oversold at −1000 to −1250 or overbought at 1000 to 1250. [1]"

Is the $NYSI the same as the summation of the mcclellan oscillator.? If so, current reading is overbought.

http://stockcharts.c.../McSumNYSE.html

http://stockcharts.c...h-sc/ui?s=$nysi

#29 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 12:18 PM

Plain as the nose on your face...

Pick a highflyer, any highflyer...

These are your LEADERS here.

The fuel that brought you to this point.

BUSTED BIG TIME ON BLOWOUT VOLUME - GO DO THE HOMEWORK AND LOOK FOR YOURSELF.



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
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#30 risk_management

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 02:28 PM

Does anyone here still uses Terry Laundry's ideas? One of his Ts has been projecting into Apr 2.