131 replies to this topic

[dharma]

gold topped ,in what i believe was the end of wave 3, in sept of 11. since that time, @this point it has made a concolidation in the form of a pennant or triangle. i have no idea if the 1540 lows that just occurred were the lows. what i do know is the crises has gotten larger. it seems every country in the west (barring a few ) are debt ridden and the debt keeps rising. throw japan into the mix. now w/shenzo abe and kuroda @the helm of the boj, they have demonstrated their intentions by jumping on the qe train, w/their 1st foray being larger than the feds qe 3. these cbs are stuck in hotel california , where they can check out but never leave. many eastern cbs continue to build their gold reserves, this will continue to be a theme. as is the theme of using the dollar less in international dealings. which brings me to my point. debt can be reneged on or inflated away. those are the choices. what we have here is an enormous debt problem. and i am not even talking about the derivative problem. the piper must and will be paid. is the 1540 low, that we just the saw the bottom for this correction? i have no idea. we will know that when 1800 is dusted. then we can say that was the end of the long correction. i keep 2 things in mind: 1 from 75-76 (before my time as a trader)gold went from 204-102 . then over the next 4 yrs it went from 102 -887. so the character of this market is to have huge haircuts this one has eaten alot of time(this bull is longer in duration than the 72-80 bull) the comex started trading in 13/74 by the way 2 the debt crises will play out . historically, this is not the 1st time fiats have gone down this road. the end result is the end of the brand of fiat. the banksters then come back w/a new system which lasts a while , then the same thing happens again. but not in our lifetimes. i started in this biz as a futures trader and maintained that as my vehicle until i saw the birth of this bull . i decided from the get go to just ride. it has worked well w/ the metals. not so for the miners. my strategy w/the miners is to buy weakness and when an equity doubles take some off the table and play w/ house money. and that continues to be my strategy. i still believe that the miners will turn 180 degrees from being hated . hgnsi -30% to being loved. when? i have no idea. but it seems to me unlike all the times i traded over the last 35 years, this situation is about survival. @11 highs i thought this situation will take time to work off , and it has. it could be longer? i will wait till the market decides. dharma

Edited by dharma, 08 April 2013 - 09:31 AM.

[senorBS]

gold topped ,in what i believe was the end of wave 3, in sept of 11. since that time, @this point it has made a concolidation in the form of a pennant or triangle. i have no idea if the 1540 lows that just occurred were the lows. what i do know is the crises has gotten larger. it seems every country in the west (barring a few ) are debt ridden and the debt keeps rising. throw japan into the mix. now w/shenzo abe and kuroda @the helm of the boj, they have demonstrated their intentions by jumping on the qe train, w/their 1st foray being larger than the feds qe 3. these cbs are stuck in hotel california , where they can check out but never leave. many eastern cbs continue to build their gold reserves, this will continue to be a theme. as is the theme of using the dollar less in international dealings.
which brings me to my point. debt can be reneged on or inflated away. those are the choices. what we have here is an enormous debt problem. and i am not even talking about the derivative problem. the piper must and will be paid. is the 1540 low, that we just the saw the bottom for this correction? i have no idea. we will know that when 1800 is dusted. then we can say that was the end of the long correction.
i keep 2 things in mind:
1 from 75-76 (before my time as a trader)gold went from 204-102 . then over the next 4 yrs it went from 102 -887. so the character of this market is to have huge haircuts this one has eaten alot of time(this bull is longer in duration than the 72-80 bull) the comex started trading in 13/74 by the way
2 the debt crises will play out . historically, this is not the 1st time fiats have gone down this road. the end result is the end of the brand of fiat. the banksters then come back w/a new system which lasts a while , then the same thing happens again. but not in our lifetimes. i started in this biz as a futures trader and maintained that as my vehicle until i saw the birth of this bull . i decided from the get go to just ride. it has worked well w/ the metals. not so for the miners. my strategy w/the miners is to buy weakness and when an equity doubles take some off the table and play w/ house money. and that continues to be my strategy. i still believe that the miners will turn 180 degrees from being hated . hgnsi -30% to being loved. when? i have no idea. but it seems to me unlike all the times i traded over the last 35 years, this situation is about survival.
@11 highs i thought this situation will take time to work off , and it has. it could be longer? i will wait till the market decides.
dharma

muy bueno summation amigo, agree that 2011 was a grande tres wave high and this is a grande quatro. Did I read correctly where the current or very recent HGNSI is -30%? is this a record?

Gracias

Senor

[dharma]

gold topped ,in what i believe was the end of wave 3, in sept of 11. since that time, @this point it has made a concolidation in the form of a pennant or triangle. i have no idea if the 1540 lows that just occurred were the lows. what i do know is the crises has gotten larger. it seems every country in the west (barring a few ) are debt ridden and the debt keeps rising. throw japan into the mix. now w/shenzo abe and kuroda @the helm of the boj, they have demonstrated their intentions by jumping on the qe train, w/their 1st foray being larger than the feds qe 3. these cbs are stuck in hotel california , where they can check out but never leave. many eastern cbs continue to build their gold reserves, this will continue to be a theme. as is the theme of using the dollar less in international dealings.
which brings me to my point. debt can be reneged on or inflated away. those are the choices. what we have here is an enormous debt problem. and i am not even talking about the derivative problem. the piper must and will be paid. is the 1540 low, that we just the saw the bottom for this correction? i have no idea. we will know that when 1800 is dusted. then we can say that was the end of the long correction.
i keep 2 things in mind:
1 from 75-76 (before my time as a trader)gold went from 204-102 . then over the next 4 yrs it went from 102 -887. so the character of this market is to have huge haircuts this one has eaten alot of time(this bull is longer in duration than the 72-80 bull) the comex started trading in 13/74 by the way
2 the debt crises will play out . historically, this is not the 1st time fiats have gone down this road. the end result is the end of the brand of fiat. the banksters then come back w/a new system which lasts a while , then the same thing happens again. but not in our lifetimes. i started in this biz as a futures trader and maintained that as my vehicle until i saw the birth of this bull . i decided from the get go to just ride. it has worked well w/ the metals. not so for the miners. my strategy w/the miners is to buy weakness and when an equity doubles take some off the table and play w/ house money. and that continues to be my strategy. i still believe that the miners will turn 180 degrees from being hated . hgnsi -30% to being loved. when? i have no idea. but it seems to me unlike all the times i traded over the last 35 years, this situation is about survival.
@11 highs i thought this situation will take time to work off , and it has. it could be longer? i will wait till the market decides.
dharma

muy bueno summation amigo, agree that 2011 was a grande tres wave high and this is a grande quatro. Did I read correctly where the current or very recent HGNSI is -30%? is this a record?

Gracias

Senor

hi senor, i dont know if its a record, but market vanes bullish consensus was a record. i seem to remember that @the top in 11 you too thought that it would take some time to work off the excess price/bullishness!?
dharma
above 1620 we have an uptrend
above 1800 we have a move to challenge the highs

[dougie]

and below 1525 the gates open to much lower prices

[SemiBizz]

XAU back under that 125.81 pivot...

[senorBS]

gold topped ,in what i believe was the end of wave 3, in sept of 11. since that time, @this point it has made a concolidation in the form of a pennant or triangle. i have no idea if the 1540 lows that just occurred were the lows. what i do know is the crises has gotten larger. it seems every country in the west (barring a few ) are debt ridden and the debt keeps rising. throw japan into the mix. now w/shenzo abe and kuroda @the helm of the boj, they have demonstrated their intentions by jumping on the qe train, w/their 1st foray being larger than the feds qe 3. these cbs are stuck in hotel california , where they can check out but never leave. many eastern cbs continue to build their gold reserves, this will continue to be a theme. as is the theme of using the dollar less in international dealings.
which brings me to my point. debt can be reneged on or inflated away. those are the choices. what we have here is an enormous debt problem. and i am not even talking about the derivative problem. the piper must and will be paid. is the 1540 low, that we just the saw the bottom for this correction? i have no idea. we will know that when 1800 is dusted. then we can say that was the end of the long correction.
i keep 2 things in mind:
1 from 75-76 (before my time as a trader)gold went from 204-102 . then over the next 4 yrs it went from 102 -887. so the character of this market is to have huge haircuts this one has eaten alot of time(this bull is longer in duration than the 72-80 bull) the comex started trading in 13/74 by the way
2 the debt crises will play out . historically, this is not the 1st time fiats have gone down this road. the end result is the end of the brand of fiat. the banksters then come back w/a new system which lasts a while , then the same thing happens again. but not in our lifetimes. i started in this biz as a futures trader and maintained that as my vehicle until i saw the birth of this bull . i decided from the get go to just ride. it has worked well w/ the metals. not so for the miners. my strategy w/the miners is to buy weakness and when an equity doubles take some off the table and play w/ house money. and that continues to be my strategy. i still believe that the miners will turn 180 degrees from being hated . hgnsi -30% to being loved. when? i have no idea. but it seems to me unlike all the times i traded over the last 35 years, this situation is about survival.
@11 highs i thought this situation will take time to work off , and it has. it could be longer? i will wait till the market decides.
dharma

muy bueno summation amigo, agree that 2011 was a grande tres wave high and this is a grande quatro. Did I read correctly where the current or very recent HGNSI is -30%? is this a record?

Gracias

Senor

hi senor, i dont know if its a record, but market vanes bullish consensus was a record. i seem to remember that @the top in 11 you too thought that it would take some time to work off the excess price/bullishness!?
dharma
above 1620 we have an uptrend
above 1800 we have a move to challenge the highs

si I did, and instead of undergoing a severe price correction it seems the sideways flag has done the job sentiment wise, taking many indicators to levels of bearish sentiment not seen since the 2000 time frame

BSing away

Senor

[dharma]

fwiw , my take as well senor . not to mention the absolute obliteration of the miners.
paul craig roberts has some interesting points on the fed and the pms
http://www.paulcraig...-craig-roberts/

i have been thinking that in spite of the fed printing a trillion a year , it is not enough
tom McClelland has this to say about that http://www.321gold.c...llan040813.html
push comes to shove. something has to give way

dharma

[salsabob]

fwiw , my take as well senor . not to mention the absolute obliteration of the miners.
paul craig roberts has some interesting points on the fed and the pms
http://www.paulcraig...-craig-roberts/

i have been thinking that in spite of the fed printing a trillion a year , it is not enough
tom McClelland has this to say about that http://www.321gold.c...llan040813.html
push comes to shove. something has to give way

dharma

Or, it could be that the FED doesn't actually "print money." Kind of like that whole Occam's Razor and space aliens. I wonder if there's a lot of overlap by the people who ignore the razor and the obvious.

Roberts actually believes the FED gets torqured around by two of the tinest markets (gold/silver) on the planet (relative to FX, bonds and equities)???
Odd.

Edited by salsabob, 08 April 2013 - 03:54 PM.

[tomterrific14]

gold topped ,in what i believe was the end of wave 3, in sept of 11. since that time, @this point it has made a concolidation in the form of a pennant or triangle. i have no idea if the 1540 lows that just occurred were the lows. what i do know is the crises has gotten larger. it seems every country in the west (barring a few ) are debt ridden and the debt keeps rising. throw japan into the mix. now w/shenzo abe and kuroda @the helm of the boj, they have demonstrated their intentions by jumping on the qe train, w/their 1st foray being larger than the feds qe 3. these cbs are stuck in hotel california , where they can check out but never leave. many eastern cbs continue to build their gold reserves, this will continue to be a theme. as is the theme of using the dollar less in international dealings.
which brings me to my point. debt can be reneged on or inflated away. those are the choices. what we have here is an enormous debt problem. and i am not even talking about the derivative problem. the piper must and will be paid. is the 1540 low, that we just the saw the bottom for this correction? i have no idea. we will know that when 1800 is dusted. then we can say that was the end of the long correction.
i keep 2 things in mind:
1 from 75-76 (before my time as a trader)gold went from 204-102 . then over the next 4 yrs it went from 102 -887. so the character of this market is to have huge haircuts this one has eaten alot of time(this bull is longer in duration than the 72-80 bull) the comex started trading in 13/74 by the way
2 the debt crises will play out . historically, this is not the 1st time fiats have gone down this road. the end result is the end of the brand of fiat. the banksters then come back w/a new system which lasts a while , then the same thing happens again. but not in our lifetimes. i started in this biz as a futures trader and maintained that as my vehicle until i saw the birth of this bull . i decided from the get go to just ride. it has worked well w/ the metals. not so for the miners. my strategy w/the miners is to buy weakness and when an equity doubles take some off the table and play w/ house money. and that continues to be my strategy. i still believe that the miners will turn 180 degrees from being hated . hgnsi -30% to being loved. when? i have no idea. but it seems to me unlike all the times i traded over the last 35 years, this situation is about survival.
@11 highs i thought this situation will take time to work off , and it has. it could be longer? i will wait till the market decides.
dharma

muy bueno summation amigo, agree that 2011 was a grande tres wave high and this is a grande quatro. Did I read correctly where the current or very recent HGNSI is -30%? is this a record?

Gracias

Senor

"A New Multi-Year Low in the HGNSI

There would be little need to write this update if not for a rather remarkable new sentiment record. After having been stuck for a while at minus 12.5, the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which measures the average recommendation of gold market timing advisers, has reached a level that hasn't been seen in a very long time, if ever (it definitely has never occurred since the beginning of the bull market in 1999/2000).

The average recommendation is now to be 31% net short. Given that this is an average and considering that there are probably a handful of permabulls in the newsletter business, this is pretty extreme – especially as neither gold nor silver have broken the major lateral support levels that have been in force since the beginning of the consolidation period in 2011. Of course they still may break said supports. The point is that this has not happened yet, while sentiment is at levels that would normally suggest otherwise. That is quite astonishing. "

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=22540 see chart in Link

[senorBS]

amigos there is muy importante dollar support at 82.25-82.30, a breach of this support IMO has a bueno chance to lead to a strong move lower in dollar and a rally to 1600 in gold, we see BSing away Senor